RBOB Gasoline Futures
No trades
Market insights
Eroding Gulf Coast Crack Spreads--Bearish for refiners like VLOBrent vs. WTI spread continues to remain strong and pulling up the value of Gulf Coast crude, which in turn is driving erosion in Gulf Coast crack margins (represent by blue line on the chart). Valero stock price (candlesticks on the chart) is reacting to deteriorating refined products margins. Bearish until crack spreads reverse course.
Short RBOB @ 1.9910Moderate down trend strength. Below SMA 50, below SMA 150. RSI14 crossed below 40.
1D Rectangle. Neutral trade. Scalping.Gasoline is trading sideways within a 1.9950 - 2.1890 Rectangle on 1D. The neutral 1W RSI = 47.963, ADX = 14.795 but most importantly its High Volatility (ATR = 0.1150) should keep the sideways trade intact. We are long, TP = 2.1295.
RDOB Gasoline showing an upward trend with LONG SIGNALSame strategy as the related ideas below.
Currently reading a long signal. Is that because Winter is approaching in the northern side of the sphere?
Strategy
Refer to BTCUSD and TRNUSDT related ideas below for detail into strategy, which works well with only high volume/volatile coins.
Summary: All indicators must cross to give a strong buy/sell signal
i.e. fibonacci lines, bollinger bands , macd , rsi must be crossed simultaneously.
PNL = +13.8%
Max Drawdown = 0.2% !!!
2 closed trades in total spanning ~4+ months (over 3% profit a month)
p.S. its a shame the graph above doesn't allow you to scroll back to view the whole range of time :(, but you can still view all the trades below
RBOB GASOLINE Future JUL18 (1d)Trading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 2.0840
Stop Loss (SL) : 2.1017
Take Profit (TP) : 1.9881, 1.9002
Description
RB formed Double Repo Failure Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (2.0840) and place stop after 0.618 level (2.1017). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (1.9881) and 1.9002
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $80,000
Risk Management (2%) : $1,600
Position Sizing
$0.0001 = +-$4.20 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0.0177 = -$743.40/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 2 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.0959 = +$4,027.80 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $0.1838 = +$7,719.60 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$19.76
Loss = -$1,486.80
Gain#1 = +$4,027.80
Gain#2 = +$7,719.60
Total Gain = +$11,747.40
Risk/Reward Ratio = 7.90
Gasoline Entering holiday weekend and hurricane after effects, we should see a few weeks of significant draw downs in inventory.
!RB1 Game Plan!Gas Futures Plummeted after tremendous break due to Hurricane harvey. After the plumet price did drop right ontop of 100EMA, a possible sign of strong support here to see it test upper channel once more. If all goes well, selling upper rejection is the plan.
---------------------------------------------
CTF - RB1!
Chart timeframe - 4hr
Area of interest - 1.8275 , 1.67
Potential target 1 - 1.75
Potential target 2 - 1.69
Potential extended target - 1.67
---------------------------------------------
Trade Safe everyone!
A good one could be setting upThis spread is now on the radar but waiting to see thing settle down a bit in Texas. So will be ready to act when refiners come back on line or if we push to a crazy extreme
1.7940 seems to be a strong resistanceAnd Hourly Tenkan is getting under the price, so that may :
- Either be the beginning of a reversal of the trend (now up, might go down).
- Or be a pause in the uptrend (if Tenkan sen line gets over the price again in 1H timeframe then that would mean that the trend is getting up again at least in 1 hour timeframe)
Futures scalp pivot creation techniqueDemonstrating a technique to create pivots for scalping. Works on many futures. To be used as potential consolidation and reversal levels. Not perfect, not advice, just for fun.
RBOB GASOLINE BEAR SIGNALRBOB GASOLINE friday 25Aug17 price action gives a string bear signal. Price will gravitate towards the bear 1/1 Gann line. Probability H.
Time to take your foot off the Gas on the Energy SectorAfter a very profitable rally across the oil complex over the past 4 weeks, it is time to tighten up stops to secure profits and position on the short side. At present we don't know whether this pullback will be a Wave 2 correction and will make a higher low in a ongoing uptrend, or whether the current rally was merely a bear rally that ended at a lower high which means we are looking at new lows.
The good news is that we don't have to know - We only need know that it's time to position for a down-leg. Our focus for this down-leg will be on Gasoline, as there are numerous indicators aligning that favor a short trade here. Here is the setup:
1) Seasonals for Gasoline turn extremely bearish is the Aug - Oct period. Since 2005, Gasoline posts a miserable 2-9 record in the upcoming month. Further, Average losses are 18cents vs winning months posting gains of 9cents, so you are getting pot odds of 2-1 to short in August on top of your 82% win rate. Very compelling.
2) COT showing Commercials reversing their extremely bullish positioning from 5 weeks ago. We score Commercial and Fund positioning and activity factoring in a volatility component, and then scoring them as a Relative Strength Score. On June 20 Commercials Net Position scored a impressive 92% on a 18m basis, and this was now down to 67% as of the latest reporting period. This was courtesy of 4week net selling of over 19k contracts, and this 4wk reduction scored a very low 15% over the past 18months & 26% over the last 5 years. Conclusion, Commercials were aggressive sellers into this rally - Perhaps you might want to join them?
3) The Dollar wipeout, while still able to continue lower, is approaching very formidable 3 year support levels of 91.5 - 93 level.. Once the USD bottoms and begins retracing some of this wipeout, you can bet the algos will be pressuring the entire energy complex.
4) Chart Action - A very bearish weekly candle formed this week indicating this rally has run out of steam and it is time to retrace a % of this very nice 25cent rally we just witnessed. Fib levels target the 1.48-1.50 area for a first stop which offers us adequate upside to place a bet here.
Here is how to play it:
1 -Sell Sep RB Futures at current levels : 1.5323
2 -Buy the Sep 1.53-1.61 Bull Call Spread - This should cost you approx 3.5 cents, but we'll have to confirm exact levels tomorrow as options are not trading currently (sunday night)
3 - Sell the Sep 1.45 Put for approx 2 cents
Your upside is 8cents, while downside is 2 centsffor R/R of 4-1. This trade gives us 36days to work, giving us time to allow the exoected Aug sell-off to materialise.
Good Trading
