$ASPN 1. Fundamental Catalyst & Initial Assessment
The recent earnings report for NYSE:ASPN was fundamentally disappointing, failing to meet market expectations. This negative catalyst has likely instilled a bearish sentiment in the near term, overshadowing the technical picture. In such an environment, the prudent strategy is one of extreme caution. There is "nothing much to say" from a bullish perspective until the price action demonstrates a clear and concrete reason to do so.
2. Defined Technical Trigger for a Shift in Bias
Despite the poor fundamental news, the market has identified a critical technical level that could signal a potential shift in momentum.
The Key Level: $4.00
This price point is being treated as a major support level. It represents a psychological price floor and potentially an area where buyers have historically stepped in. A failure to hold this level could open the door for a much deeper decline.
The Contrarian Hypothesis:
The idea is not to buy because of the terrible earnings, but in spite of them. The thesis is that all the bad news may already be "priced in" after the report. If the stock demonstrates unexpected strength by stabilizing and breaking out above this key support-turned-resistance level, it could indicate that the selling pressure has been fully exhausted.
3. The Critical Need for Confirmation
The plan explicitly states, "I would consider buying but only there is confirmation." This is the most crucial element of the strategy and separates speculation from a structured trade.
What "Confirmation" Entails:
A simple move to $4.00 is not enough. A valid buy signal requires a confirmed breakout and conversion of resistance back into support. This could be evidenced by:
A strong bullish candlestick (e.g., a bullish engulfing pattern) closing decisively above the $4.00 level.
A subsequent retest of the $4.00 level where it now acts as support, followed by a bounce.
Supporting momentum from a technical indicator like the RSI breaking above a key level (e.g., 50) or a moving average crossover.
4. Risk Management & Conclusion
This is a classic "contrarian" or "mean reversion" setup that carries significant risk, given the negative fundamental backdrop.
The Risk: The primary risk is that the terrible earnings report marks the beginning of a new, sustained downtrend, and any break above $4.00 is a false breakout (a "bull trap").
The Managed Approach: The strategy wisely avoids trying to catch a falling knife. Instead, it patiently waits for the market to show its hand through a clear technical reversal signal after the bad news is out. This provides a objective framework for identifying a potential turnaround while strictly defining the invalidation point (a failure to break and hold above $4.00).
In summary, while NYSE:ASPN is not a compelling buy based on its recent earnings, the $4.00 level serves as a critical line in the sand. A trader would not be active here but would place this stock on a watchlist, awaiting a clear, confirmed technical breakout above this level as the sole trigger for considering a high-risk, tactical long position.
Market insights
ASPN - cup, handle, and maybe the moonAspen Aerogels (ASPN) shows a textbook “cup and handle” pattern on the daily chart. The stock broke above the MA50 and MA200, forming a golden cross - a clear signal of trend reversal. The buy zone sits around 7.4–7.8 , where price has twice found support. Holding above 8.0 keeps the door open toward 11.3, 13.7, and possibly 16.0 - key supply levels from previous distribution.
On the fundamental side , ASPN benefits from strong interest in energy-efficient materials and aerogels used in green construction and EV insulation. With US policy support for clean tech, the company may catch a new growth wave.
Tactically , as long as price stays above 7.8 , the setup remains bullish. Break above 9.0 confirms further upside, while a drop below 7.0 cancels the pattern.
Every cup looks perfect until someone shakes the table - let’s see if this one stays steady.
Small Cap Spec Stock - 5x potential?As the electric vehicle (market in the U.S. continues to expand, ASPN stands to benefit from its integral role in the EV supply chain. With GM’s growing market share in EVs and an expected surge in EV sales, demand for advanced thermal management solutions, such as those provided by Aspen Aerogels, will likely see significant growth. ASPN specializes in aerogel insulation products, which are essential for ensuring battery safety, efficiency, and performance—crucial aspects as EV adoption accelerates.
Despite concerns over EV battery fires, which have been a source of skepticism, ASPN’s technology offers a unique solution to mitigate these risks by enhancing the thermal stability of batteries. As EV manufacturers look for ways to improve fire safety, thermal management solutions like those offered by Aspen Aerogels will be in higher demand.
Overall, ASPN serves as a proxy for the broader EV industry, benefitting from the rapid technological evolution and increased consumer and governmental focus on safer, more efficient electric vehicles. With GM ramping up its EV production, ASPN is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, making it a compelling stock for investors looking to gain exposure to the EV sector.
Whilst this is an extremely risky stock, if the business executes and the expansion of it's facility goes smoothly, this stock can do a 5-10x. But trade with caution, always have a stop loss.
Not financial advice, do what's best for you.
ASPN - Dec 24 100SMA StrongWeak BounceASPN
Premarket entry to capture price as it is within our Stdev range and we can be ahead of the crowd as we expect the greater force (RUT) to continue dropping
Sector: Energy Insulation, EV
Short Interest: 11.29%
ADR 6.38%
Does it respect the H1 100SMA (Min 3Months): Yes
Stagnent Revenue, negative EPS
Insider filings see the CEO selling around $30 the peak before the fall in Oct 24. Price has dropped 60% since then.
Is it a Hype Thematic (AI, Solar): EV and Energy, there is a bearish sentiment on EV demand. If Trump does remove the EV subsidies for consumers, there should be a larger fall in demand.
100SMA StrongWeak Bounce 🏀 (0.5R) v1.0
Trading risk at 0.5R as we are testing this strategy
This trade model is based on us riding the 100SMA trend waves of the strongest and weakest companies. It only executes well when greater force (RUT & SPX) is trending. Entries are at greater force key levels when it is consolidating. When greater force is taking off it is too late.
Entry
Within Stdev 100 zone
SL = ATR14 * 2 (Run full course no early exits)
Trailing stop (Previous Day Low or high)
Price launch off (D1)
D2 Closes
D3 Move SL to D2 Low
Market Update - 6/15/2024This week I do a deeper dive into all the things I look at, outside of the regular trades.
Summary:
• overview of my strategy, experience, style
• large cap tech is driving all the performance, seems quite overbought ( NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY )
• market breadth keeps worsening ( INDEX:MMOH , AMEX:IWM )
• interest rates ( TVC:US10Y ) have dropped, which in my opinion reflects more of weak economic outlook and weak equity returns, rather than a strong fuel for a potential market rally
• currently I'm only 35% invested, 5 positions
• down 3.5% since last week
• however, combined performance with my passive account is slightly up (long position in NASDAQ:TLT and a long put on NASDAQ:QQQ since Friday)
• lots of failed breakouts, reversals in the last few weeks in my watchlist and portfolio
• limited opportunities, only a few interesting setups:
NASDAQ:AIRG
NASDAQ:IPW
NASDAQ:FOSLL
NYSE:BRCC
NYSE:ASPN
• will remain cautious and only add 0.1-0.2% risk positions, and only up to 50% invested
ASPN, 5/15-5/24, 9.5% PROFITAspen Aerogels (ASPN) reported earnings of $0.01 per share on revenue of $94.50 million for the first quarter ended March 2024. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.13 per share on revenue of $73.04 million. The company beat expectations by 120.00% while revenue grew 107.30% on a year-over-year basis.
ASPEN AEROGELS Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 072623 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 8.02/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
















