BILL – Potential Reversal Setup -Watching for Gap Fill $75–80Summary
BILL has been in a prolonged downtrend, but the weekly chart suggests a potential reversal setup. Historically, after every major decline, the stock has staged a strong rebound. The current structure shows price testing a long-term support zone around $38–40. If buyers step in, BILL may begin building momentum toward filling the overhead gap around $75–80.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Weekly Structure: BILL has retraced heavily from its highs near $220, now consolidating at multi-year support ($38–40). Historically, these deep retracements have preceded large recovery rallies.
Gap Fill Potential: The most notable overhead gap lies between $75–80. If momentum shifts bullish, this area becomes a natural magnet.
Indicators:
RSI: Flattening near 40 on the weekly, suggesting downside pressure is slowing, leaving room for upside expansion.
MACD: Momentum histogram beginning to contract on the downside, signaling bearish exhaustion and potential cross-over ahead.
Stochastic: Oversold and starting to curl upward – a common signal ahead of reversal moves.
ADX/DMI: Weakening bearish trend strength, creating conditions for a shift in momentum.
Volume: Capitulation spikes were seen on prior selloffs; current volume profile suggests accumulation.
🎯 Trade Setup
Reversal Scenario
Entry: $39–41 (current long-term support).
Stop Loss: < $35 (below support and invalidation of reversal thesis).
Targets:
T1: $50 (first swing resistance).
T2: $62 (Fib 0.382 retracement).
T3: $75–80 (gap-fill zone).
Alternative Scenario (Bearish Continuation)
If support at $38 breaks on strong volume, price could retest $30–32 as next support zone.
📈 Fundamental / Sentiment Context
BILL operates in the fintech/payment automation sector, an industry under pressure but with long-term structural tailwinds.
Market sentiment remains cautious, but BILL has surprised in the past with sharp recoveries once selling exhaustion sets in.
Any earnings surprise, guidance upgrade, or sector momentum (e.g., fintech rebound) could act as a catalyst for a sharp upside rally.
✅ Execution Notes
Position sizing should remain conservative until reversal confirmation.
Watch weekly closes above $45–47 as an early sign of momentum shift.
Partial profits can be taken at $50 and $62; leave runners for a potential gap-fill toward $75–80.
TL;DR
BILL is testing a multi-year support zone around $38–40 after a prolonged decline. Technicals point to bearish exhaustion with a high-probability setup for a reversal. Upside targets include $50 → $62 → $75–80 (gap fill). Breakdown below $35 invalidates the setup.
BILL trade ideas
BILL - 6-10 R:R short-term trade opportunity Here is a multi-time frame analysis and trade idea on BILL. The algorithms are indicating a potential short-term reversal and with a few of our confluences and confirmations, we are able to set up a solid trade.
I left out the weekly view because it's not as relevant for this short-term trade idea - but needless to say, we are in a strong downtrend.
As you'll see on the Daily (left chart), we are respecting a tapered white selling algorithm on the buy-side and potentially proving it on the sell-side today. If this is the case, we have the opportunity to take the trade from the bottom of white to at minimum the top of the stronger teal selling channel.
- Trade 1 is offering a 6 R:R (to the top of teal)
- Trade 2 is offering a 10 R:R (to the top of white)
Keep in mind that if we do break out of teal and prove white on the daily time frame, this would be a very bullish indication and potentially leave us for a breakout trade beyond toward the top of the weekly selling channel.
The major confluence that makes this trade viable is the HTF demand zone (indicated by the green box) that we have just tapped into. While the perfect entry would be on a white hold which we had at today's low of $40.60, for further confirmation, we are waiting for a break and 15 Minute close above the demand zone. We will then enter the position and have a tight stop below our white algorithm and low of day.
If you like this type of analysis and trade ideas, let me know in the comments! I typically post longer-form analysis videos which offer more information and give you the ability to find trades on your own. However, I am happy to offer ideas like these when a good opportunity arises
Happy Trading :)
BILL - Updated analysis - plenty of room to the upsideWith a similar analysis to my previous BILL post, we are seeing that a HTF white algorithm has held and proven. Therefore we have a few points of movement towards stronger selling teal and a good opportunity to reach buy-side of white which sits in the $48 range.
Still bullish on this short term especially with the HTF algorithm proof and the combination of stronger volume pouring in at these levels.
Happy Trading :)
BILL Holdings – Trust Channel Initiated Strategic Liquidity.....BILL Holdings – Trust Channel Initiated: Strategic Liquidity Anchor for VolanX Alignment
🔐 Posted by: WaverVanir_International_LLC
🗓 June 27, 2025 | Chart:
“This isn’t a trade. It’s a trust transmission.” – VolanX
📡 BILL – Trust Layer Formation Protocol
BILL Holdings (NYSE: BILL) is more than a fintech stock. It’s a digital liquidity pipeline for modern business operations — and VolanX has flagged its current structure as a pre-phase trust channel alignment candidate.
While the public focuses on revenue beats and software metrics, WaverVanir is focused on data rails, SMB liquidity flow, and enterprise automation convergence.
🧠 STRUCTURAL PLAYBOOK
📌 CHoCH + BOS confirms institutional accumulation
📌 Discount mitigation completed (May–June)
📌 Range Expansion Zone: $50.98 → $68.70
📌 Volume Profile thin above $51 = vacuum trigger on breakout
📌 Fractal compression cycle nearing final phase before directional unlock
🎯 TIMELINE SCENARIO:
$50.98 = Liquidity portal trigger
$56.74 = Smart Money Redistribution Node
$66.00–$68.70 = Macro Fulfillment Zone
Price may range until late Q3 before we see the true breakout impulse. The goal is not to front-run, but to synchronize trust with the smart money waveform.
📰 RECENT CATALYSTS:
🌐 Expansion of BILL’s AP/AR AI suite for mid-cap enterprises
🏛️ Partnership talks with financial infrastructure providers (rumored Q2 earnings call insight)
📈 Bill.com Virtual Card network reported +34% YoY growth
⚖️ Regulatory tailwinds for SMB fintech infrastructure due to bipartisan credit access reforms
💼 WAVERVANIR STRATEGIC DISCLOSURE:
WaverVanir International LLC is now initiating a trust ledger for BILL. This post serves as a formal signal entry into the VolanX Alignment Protocol.
Future entries will track:
Smart Money footprint
Liquidity cycles
Strategic engagement for AI-traded B2B finance nodes
📣 This chart is not financial advice. It’s a broadcast:
BILL is not a payment software stock. It’s a liquidity scaffold.
📌 TAGS / SIGNALS:
#BILL #WaverVanir #VolanX #SMC #SmartMoney #FintechRails #TimelineProtocol #InstitutionalFootprint #LiquidityCycle #CreditInfrastructure #ORB #TradingView #MacroStructure #DSS #TrustChannel
🧬 If you’re reading this — the trust stream has already begun.
BILL Holdings – The Fibonacci Redemption Arc📈 Ticker: NYSE:BILL | 1D Chart | WaverVanir Analysis
What began as a 2021 hype cycle ended in a brutal drawdown — from $348 to $29. The 0.886 Fib level at $313.27 is now the poetic destination. This is not just a retrace… it's a reckoning.
💩 "Poop investors" bought at the peak.
📉 Smart systems waited through the ashes.
Now? We're tracking a clean parabolic climb, reclaiming level after level, with price magnetized toward the final Fib zone.
🧩 Observations:
Full retrace from ATH now underway
0.618 and 0.786 zones respected on the way up
Break of $229 was confirmation — $313 in sight
Volume increasing with structure — not noise
This is no longer retail territory. This is institutional cleanup, algorithmic momentum, and post-winter positioning.
📍WaverVanir stands by one truth:
“Retail reacts. Smart money calculates. Dharma trades are inevitable.”
#BILL #Fibonacci #TradingStrategy #PoopInvestors #WaverVanir #TrendReversal #BullishMomentum #VolanX #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #AITrading
6/18/25 - $bill - Meh in this tape. "ignore"/ fry diff fish6/18/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:BILL
Meh in this tape. "ignore"/ fry diff fish
- friend DM'd me today "V what about NYSE:BILL ?"
- too much brain damage to care.
- i a world where AI wasn't gutting SMB software, where SMB wasn't being handed a noose by our gov't and interest rates were not 4.5% and likely to rise... i'd say "sure". but this is parallel universe is not the one i wake up to everyday.
- so barely any earnings growth, most of the FCF is stock comp (which is fine for co's that have stock charts up and to the right, not the opposite here).. "what is the right valuation"? well... ask a PE shop. these guys like to overpay for everything. they'll tell you it's $80. good luck with that one. these guys also mark their books by licking one finger and shoving another one up their backsides.
- truth is... idk what it's worth, except to say this:
- i can find a ton of other stuff with FAR better valuation, FAR better growth, FAR LESS stock comp/ dilution and FAR LESS macro-factor-related headache. And even those "alternatives" aren't even that obvious.
- "gotcha V but what price to look again?"
- "reality is, if things get so abysmal in the economy that this think takes a deeper bath... i'd still probably find other stuff that still a/ grows faster, b/ has better cash returns etc. etc. and would prefer to own that stuff at a discount". it's always possible tmr this goes -20% and everything else "stays the same". unlikely. and i don't spend my time thinking about sub 1% probability events.
so tl;dr... i don't really watch this thing anymore.
tbh, i find most B2B/ SaaS software still too expensive. even if AI ultimately doesn't gut their businesses in the next say 1-3 years... that "threat" is always going to keep multiples compressed. so i don't look at any software as much as I do anymore, unless it's attached to a hardware platform e.g. NVDA, TSLA... etc. i know that sounds boring, but i don't think small caps will "come back" vs. larger-scale-cap stuff that has reached takeoff velocity. i think big co's not screwing up will keep winning. and while NYSE:BILL might eventually get taken out, i don't like putting "take out" as a cope for buying a down and to the right stock. that's private equity mentality. that's not facing the music. there are no chairs. there is no more music and you're left with a stock that nobody wants.
i like the founder. i like the co.
but the stock is no longer on my care-to-care list. ignore.
V
BILL Long Setup – 39.57% Upside PotentialWatching NYSE:BILL for a potential breakout play.
The price is holding just under the cloud with a clean base forming. If we push through the cloud, this could trigger a strong move toward the $62–63 zone — aligning with the top of the previous range and pivot zone.
📈 Setup Details:
Entry: $45.03
Stop: $44.04 (tight 2.2%)
Target: $62.97
R/R Ratio: 17.9
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud + trend compression + inside support zone
Volume remains steady and we’ve rejected lower prices multiple times — a breakout above the cloud could confirm buyer strength.
🎯 Trade Thesis:
Low-risk, high-reward breakout setup with tight stop and strong upside if macro sentiment holds. Watching for confirmation above cloud + key volume levels.
Bill.com Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Bill.com Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* 61.00 USD | Area Of Value | Subdivision 1
* A+ Set Up)) | Completed Survey | Subdivision 2
- Triple Formation
* ((Triangle Structure)) | Uptrend Bias & Entry Settings
* WXY Wave Count | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Bill.com (BILL) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Bill.com NYSE:BILL is a leading provider of cloud-based financial workflow automation software tailored to small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). Serving nearly 500,000 SMBs, the company has established itself as a key enabler of digital transformation in financial operations, streamlining accounts payable (AP) and accounts receivable (AR) processes.
Key Growth Catalysts
Expanding SMB Market Share:
SMB Focus: BILL addresses a vast and underserved SMB market, where the demand for automation and efficiency is rapidly increasing.
As SMBs adopt digital solutions, BILL’s platform is positioned to capture significant market share by improving cash flow management and operational efficiency.
AI-Powered Innovation:
Recent enhancements integrate AI capabilities to streamline invoice processing, fraud detection, and payment approvals.
These features drive customer retention, reduce churn, and open new revenue opportunities.
Strategic Leadership Additions:
Mary Kay Bowman (EVP, Payments): A seasoned leader with a strong payments background, Bowman’s expertise enhances BILL’s ability to scale its payments business.
Bobbie Grafeld (Chief People Officer): Grafeld’s focus on talent acquisition and organizational culture will support BILL’s growth initiatives and workforce scalability.
Competitive Positioning
End-to-End Platform:
BILL’s platform simplifies financial workflows, making it indispensable for SMBs looking to reduce manual work and enhance financial visibility.
Its robust integration with major accounting software platforms (e.g., QuickBooks, Xero) strengthens its competitive moat.
Recurring Revenue Model:
BILL benefits from a high proportion of recurring revenue, driven by subscription fees and transaction volumes, ensuring stable cash flow.
Scalability:
The platform’s ability to grow with customers—from small startups to larger SMBs—positions BILL as a long-term partner in financial automation.
Financial and Stock Outlook
Bullish Momentum Above $72.00-$73.00:
BILL's innovation, market penetration, and strategic hires provide a robust foundation for continued growth.
Upside Target: $130.00-$135.00, reflecting optimism about its ability to expand market share and improve margins.
Investor Appeal:
BILL’s focus on AI-driven efficiency and its expanding SMB footprint make it attractive to growth-focused investors.
A debt-light balance sheet and consistent revenue growth highlight its financial strength.
Conclusion
Bill.com is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for financial automation among SMBs. Its AI-driven platform, strategic leadership, and strong market penetration underscore its growth potential.
📈 Recommendation: Bullish on BILL above $72.00-$73.00, targeting $130.00-$135.00.
BILL - JULY 24 MATrend Sustainable MomentumBroad market was fall drastically and I rode the drop. Of all the signals this was a signal that had the best chart pattern and potential to move given it's ADR%, and Risk to ATR ratio.
MATrend Sustainable Momentum (Systematic) 🚀
This is a variant of the Unsustainable strategy. System identifies stocks (Tech sector) that follows the larger market regime's momentum of the day.
BILL - Time to break the trend2020 IPO, increadible run up thanks to covid helicopter money flooding the market and BILL was fitting on the fintech / solutions space perfectly.
After the peak, constant selling pressure for 3 years. We saw the IPO price recently and ran up %15 since. It is at the cusp of breaking out the downward trendline. This name is expecting to post its 1st positive income quarterly this year.
institution positioning is high, will do a sneaky %40 under the radar. Buy on the breakout, and add on the retest if it comes, run up to >70
5/2/24 - $bill good print, small nuance but buy/own5/2/24 - vrockstar - good print, decent guide (let's be honest, better execution than other B2B style software), valuation reasonable 5x sales w/ opex leverage and good SMB moat and maintaining >20% pa CAGR growth rates w/ a lot of runway. conservatively modeling cash in my prop model, seeing dramatic upside here is probably not likely until we see some sort of resolution in rates/ SMB-related "macro" which could be a 2H event. So while I'd be interested here in the sub $65 level (and was lucky enough to snag some share in the high 50s post result here AH)... my play here is to monetize by selling/ renting 5-10% OTM C's weekly until we get a retest of this $60 level that comes from a macro-related reset. like the founder/ ceo here - real deal - a stock you'll want to compound at the right price in the MT context. you'll likely make $ buying it at post EPS levels (mid 60s) into YE, however, the upside isn't immediately obvious up and to the right from here per the above. be patient, wrangle a good spot based on macro and leave any comments below if you disagree. gl all.
This High Yielding Option Setup In BILL Is A Massive Win-WinIDEA : Sell Bill Holdings $45 strike puts expiring 5/19/2023 for $100 per contract (Currently $1.00 market bid. Be sure to check prices.)
NOTE : Your broker will reserve $4,500 in buying power for every contract sold.
STATS :
-37.4% breakeven (We have this much “room” until we would be underwater at option expiry.)
15.6% annualized return
92.3% chance of max profit
COMMENTS : While many may write off BILL as one of the high flying, expensive, unprofitable tech companies that got caught up in the speculative madness of 2021, the company has changed significantly since that period. And, while still expensive, shares in this new-and-improved, profitable enterprise are coming into some really interesting territory from an entry perspective.
Historically, the company has increased revenue adeptly, as the top line has grown more than 600% since the IPO in late 2019. However, the complaint with the company has always been a general lack of profitability.
It finally seems as though management has begun to take this to heart, as over the last 12-month period Bill produced 77m in FCF, a first, and a record, for the company. With a more focused management — which has already proven it can execute and pivot when needed — and the recent 70% decline in shares over the last year, Bill is finally looking interesting.
We like these puts because they give us a big margin of safety, a great yield (>15%!), and a high probability of success. That said, we would be lucky to own these shares from $45 as well, should we get that chance.
RISKS : The company has diluted shareholders by 43% since the IPO. If the firm continues to use their equity as a weapon, instead of their newly retained cash flow, then the stock may be in trouble no matter the top or bottom-line performance. We expect that this risk will dissipate with the recent exhibit of stronger financial discipline. Earnings are also on the 4th of May.
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Micro Bullish Rally ContinuationBILL closed the week with a strong Bullish sentiment.
Bouncing of weekly support $98-$99
and closing above its Daily support $104
What to expect:
An open above 104 can be indication of a push to retest Monthly resistance $110-111 eyeing resistance @$116 and possibly $122.
If we see an opening below the $104 mark then price will seek to retest weekly support $99
Keep in mind that we find ourselves in a Macro Bearish structure. And in order to see any true continuation to the upside this structure needs to be broken and held. Until then all rallys will be faded.
BILL Gap fill coming?.....probably notStill pretty new at charting, so any constructive criticism is welcome.
Market structure is clearly bullish especially after the earnings report this past week. A gap formed after earnings that will eventually fill, but this whole picture suggests that the share price will fall lower.
It's currently at a demand zone - but may move below it with ease. Once below theres a few areas of resistance (from being that low >2 year ago).