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NZD/CHF

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NZDCHF SELL? 1. Overview The market has been trading within a prolonged bearish structure, maintaining consistent lower highs and lower lows. Recent price action indicates a temporary corrective phase, suggesting a possible short-term retracement within the broader downtrend. 2. Technical Analysis Daily Timeframe: Price has retraced toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which is acting as a significant resistance area. This aligns with the potential completion of a short-term corrective wave, signaling a possible resumption of bearish momentum if the level holds. 4-Hour Timeframe: The 4-hour chart shows signs of a potential reversal pattern forming near the current resistance zone. This pattern may indicate exhaustion of the retracement and an early sign of sellers regaining control. 3. Outlook Should the current resistance area remain intact, renewed selling pressure is expected, potentially leading to a continuation of the broader downtrend. However, a confirmed breakout above the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance could invalidate the bearish setup and signal a deeper corrective phase. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor
Short
by WiLLProsperForex
NZDCHF; lower than higher for a long timeMy interpretation of Elliot Waves for NZDCHF on a weekly chart. Around October'23 I lost hope of NZDCHF going lower due to price closing at the 50% fib retracement. In my observation when price closes at a 50% fib retracement - that is the reversal point. I thought Aug'23 was wave 3 and Oct'23 wave 5...I thought I missed the low. But the sideways move for wave gave me hope. I'm expecting a lower low for NZDCHF to complete wave (5) of (V) or V which is in line at the 1.618 area
Short
by shamgar331
NZDCHF November 2025 fundamental analysisNew Zealand Dollar (NZD): Aggressive Easing Undermines Currency Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked markets on October 7 with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022. This represented a departure from the 25-50 basis point split that markets had priced, with the RBNZ citing the need to "restore confidence in an economic recovery that has lost momentum". Since August 2024, the central bank has slashed rates by a total of 300 basis points.​ Markets now fully price in another 25 basis point cut at the November 26 meeting, with expectations for rates to decline to 2.0% by 2026. BNZ's Markets Outlook suggests the terminal OCR for this cycle may be 2.50%, though downside risks remain if the economy continues to disappoint.​ Economic Weakness New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, though the RBNZ's nowcast suggests a 0.7% rebound in Q3. However, this reported contraction may overstate economic weakness when considering the positive impact of terms of trade, as evidenced by real gross national disposable income showing 0.9% quarterly expansion and 2.2% annual growth. Nonetheless, the recovery remains subdued, and the trade-weighted index has declined to its lowest level since the April market volatility, sitting below the RBNZ's August projections.​ November Outlook: Very Bearish The New Zealand Dollar faces the most challenging outlook among major currencies. NZD/USD fell to $0.575 following the October RBNZ cut, hitting its lowest level since April. The currency recovered modestly to around 0.5780 by late October, but analysts warn of downside risks with key support at 0.5750 and potentially 0.56 below that. Against the Australian Dollar, NZD/AUD dropped to a three-year low of 0.8758, with further weakness expected given the diverging monetary policy paths. The aggressive RBNZ easing, weak economic fundamentals, and deteriorating terms of trade create a perfect storm for kiwi weakness in November. Swiss Franc (CHF): Safe Haven Supremacy Despite Zero Rates Swiss National Bank Policy The Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0.00% and shows no inclination to move into negative territory despite franc strength. At its September meeting, the SNB notably refrained from describing the franc as "highly valued" or expressing concern over its appreciation—a significant shift in communication. This suggests the SNB has become more comfortable with franc strength, particularly as Switzerland's real exchange rate remains relatively stable due to low domestic inflation of just 0.2%.​ Economic Environment Switzerland's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The SNB characterized current policy settings as "appropriately expansionary" despite the 0% rate, and expressed confidence that inflation will remain within the 0-2% target range. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with weaker growth prospects potentially limiting any hawkish policy adjustments.​ November Outlook: Bullish The Swiss franc's safe-haven status provides strong support in November's uncertain environment. EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.92-0.93, and analysts expect the pair to gradually appreciate toward 0.96 over the next 12 months, implying modest franc weakness against the euro. However, against the dollar, the franc is expected to strengthen significantly, with USD/CHF forecasts suggesting 0.77 within a year, with downside risks toward 0.75 or even 0.73. The franc's outperformance has persisted despite substantial interest rate differentials, demonstrating the power of safe-haven flows in the current geopolitical environment. Verdict The combination of moderate Swiss economic resilience with historically low SNB rates and heightened global uncertainty supports CHF strength. Meanwhile, the New Zealand economy’s slow but steady recovery and RBNZ easing limit NZD upside. NZD/CHF is thus a SELL in November.
Short
by Oneirotrade
NZDCHF ShortsThe overall structure remAins bearish, with prIce continuing to show weakness across higher timeframe. The daily FVG (as shown) already has already been traded into and showed a bearish reaction, indicating that liquidity has been likely been collected from the imbalance area. On the H4, a new FVG (as shown) has recently printed, aligning with support level that price is currently respecting. The expectation is for a daily candle to close bearish, confirming sustained downside momentum. A break and retest of the H4 support to the downside would signal a potential continuation setup, offering a clean opportunity for short entries targeting lower liquidity pools or the next higher timeframe discount zone.
Short
by Guissoul
NZDJPY Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Short
by Derry_Trades
1
Swiss Franc Pullback! NZD/CHF Long Opportunity Emerging🥝💰 KIWI DOLLAR VS SWISS FRANC | The Thief's Layered Entry Playbook 📊 Asset: NZD/CHF (New Zealand Dollar / Swiss Franc) Market Context (Live Data - Oct 10, 2025): Current Price: ~0.4628-0.4655 CHF 30-Day Range: 0.4606 - 0.4758 Monthly Performance: -1.42% Yearly Performance: -12.35% Currency Strength Analysis: 🇳🇿 NZD Strength: Moderately weak - NZD has declined 5.09% over the past 12 months and down 2.81% over the last month, showing underlying weakness against major currencies 🇨🇭 CHF Strength: Relatively strong - Swiss Franc gained 5.83% over 12 months but weakened slightly by 1.00% in the past month, indicating recent profit-taking but maintaining safe-haven status 🎯 THE SETUP Bias: 🟢 BULLISH Confirmation Signal: LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average) breakout above 0.46400 — this is our green light to enter the market! 🔧 THE "THIEF STYLE" LAYERED ENTRY STRATEGY Instead of going all-in at one price (boring! 😴), we're using multiple limit orders to scale into position like a professional thief sneaking into a vault — quietly, strategically, and with multiple entry points! 💼 Entry Zones: Option A: Market Entry (Aggressive) Any price level after LSMA breakout confirmation @ 0.46400 Option B: The Thief's Ladder (Conservative - Recommended) Multiple buy limit layers: Layer 1: 0.46300 Layer 2: 0.46200 Layer 3: 0.46100 Pro Tip: You can add more layers based on your risk appetite and account size! 🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT Stop Loss: 0.45900 (200 pips breathing room) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), I'm NOT recommending you use only my stop loss. This is YOUR money on the line — set your risk parameters based on YOUR risk tolerance and account size. Trade at your own risk! This is just my play, not financial advice. 🎯 PROFIT TARGET Take Profit Zone: 0.47100 Technical Reasoning: LSMA moving average acting as strong dynamic resistance Overbought conditions expected in this zone Potential bull trap area — take profits and escape with the loot! 💰 ⚠️ Disclaimer: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), I'm NOT recommending you hold until my TP. If you're in profit and happy, TAKE IT! Nobody ever went broke taking profits. Your money, your rules, your risk. 🔗 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH Positive Correlation (Move Together): OANDA:NZDUSD 📊 - Kiwi's health check against the dollar OANDA:AUDCHF 🦘 - Commodity currency neighbor correlation Inverse Correlation (Move Opposite): OANDA:CHFJPY 🏦 - Safe-haven flow indicator FX:EURCHF 🇪🇺 - Swiss franc strength gauge Key USD Pairs for Context: OANDA:USDCHF 💵 - Currently trading around 0.8067, Swiss franc showing slight weakness OANDA:NZDUSD 💵 - Trading near 0.5759, down 0.78% showing NZD weakness Correlation Logic: When risk sentiment improves, commodity currencies (NZD, AUD) strengthen while safe havens (CHF, JPY) weaken. Watch USD/CHF for Swiss franc momentum shifts and NZD/USD for kiwi dollar strength trends. ⚙️ TECHNICAL SETUP SUMMARY ✅ LSMA Breakout Strategy ✅ Layered Entry Approach ✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: ~6:1 (600 pips reward / 100-300 pips risk per layer) ✅ Swing/Day Trading Timeframe ✅ Multiple Entry Opportunities 💡 THE THIEF'S WISDOM Remember: Markets don't move in straight lines. The layered entry approach allows you to: Average your entry if price dips lower Reduce FOMO — you're not chasing, you're waiting Manage risk better — smaller positions at multiple levels Stay calm — even if one layer doesn't fill, others might ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! ⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This is the "Thief Style" trading strategy — presented for educational and entertainment purposes only. This is NOT financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading forex carries substantial risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. Trade at your own risk! 🎲 #NZDCHF #ForexTrading #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TradingStrategy #ForexSignals #TechnicalAnalysis #LSMA #LayeredEntry #RiskManagement #KiwiDollar #SwissFranc #ForexSetup #TradingIdea #ForexCommunity #PriceAction #ThiefStyle #ForexLife #TradeSmart
Long
by The-Thief
#039: SHORT Investing Opportunity on NZD/CHF The NZD/CHF exchange rate is in a particularly interesting technical phase after the strong bullish expansion of recent weeks. Hello, I'm Andrea Russo, an independent Forex trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time. The market has begun to show signs of structural weakness, with a sequence of lower highs and gradually declining volumes, while institutional flow suggests profit-taking at the top of the range. The 4-hour chart shows a clear break of the short-term ascending trendline, accompanied by a loss of momentum in commodity currencies. The Swiss franc, on the other hand, is showing increasing relative strength, supported by defensive flows and gradually increasing volatility. The current area represents a key point: the price is testing the volume equilibrium zone, where buy orders had accumulated in the past. A close below this level would open the door to a deeper bearish extension, while any bullish reactions at this range would be considered simple technical pullbacks until the market structure shows a true change in direction. Momentum indicators confirm increasing bearish pressure, with negative divergences already active and cyclicality favorable to a further downturn. On the intermarket level, the franc tends to benefit from the current risk-averse environment, while the New Zealand dollar remains exposed to more fragile sentiment linked to the agricultural sector and Asian demand dynamics.
Short
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
NZD/CHF Turning Point — Are We Seeing a Breakout or Fakeout?🥝💶 NZD/CHF "KIWI DOLLAR VS SWISS" – Market Capital Flow Blueprint (Swing/Day Trade) 🧭 Plan: A Bullish structure is confirmed with an LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average) breakout, signaling early momentum flow in favor of the Kiwi Dollar. Market shows potential continuation after a breakout retest phase, supported by a constructive bullish bias in the CHF cross pairs. Thief Trader’s Strategy: I’m using a layering-style entry system — stacking multiple limit orders for optimal positioning. Buy Limit Layers: 🧱 0.45500 🧱 0.45600 🧱 0.45700 🧱 0.45800 💡 You can customize or increase the layer levels based on your own style and risk comfort. 🎯 Target Zone: Police barricade (resistance) spotted near 0.46400, where overbought conditions + liquidity trap potential = time to secure profits and vanish like a pro! 🕶️💰 ⚠️ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGs) — this target is for illustration only. You can take profits, scale out, or hold based on your own plan. Trade safe, not greedy! 🛑 Stop-Loss Plan: 📍 Thief SL @ 0.45300 Remember: I’m not recommending everyone to use the same SL. It’s your trade, your risk. Adjust smartly according to your setup and psychology. 💬 Market Correlation Watchlist: Keep an eye on related pairs to confirm flow direction and sentiment: OANDA:NZDUSD → Correlates positively with NZD/CHF. A strong Kiwi vs. USD often strengthens NZD/CHF. OANDA:USDCHF → Inverse correlation. When USDCHF falls, NZDCHF tends to rise. OANDA:AUDCHF → Moves similarly with NZDCHF. Confirm trend strength across both pairs. OANDA:EURCHF → Useful for identifying CHF-specific strength or weakness. ⚙️ Key Technical Points: LSMA Breakout confirming trend shift 📈 Strong accumulation base below 0.45500 Momentum picking up on higher timeframes RSI rising above neutral zone (momentum confirmation) Risk-to-reward ratio aligns well for swing/day style setups ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #NZDCHF #ForexAnalysis #SwingTrade #DayTrading #KiwiDollar #ThiefTrader #CHF #ForexStrategy #LSMA #MarketFlow #SmartMoney #ForexEducation
Long
by The-Thief
NZD/CHF BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT Hello, Friends! NZD/CHF is making a bullish rebound on the 2H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 0.456 level. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
Bullish bounce off overlap support?NZD/CHF has bounced off the pivot whic acts as an overlap support and oculd potentially rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 0.45792 1st Support: 0.45507 1st Resistance: 0.4648 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by IC Markets