Undecided. - SAND/SAN weekly update August 9 - 15thThe Sandbox (SAND) is currently advancing within a strongly aligned Elliott Wave structure. At the Cycle degree, price is in Wave 3; at both the Primary and Intermediate degrees, it is also in Wave 3; and at the Minute degree, the market is completing a smaller Wave 3. From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, it would make sense for price to dip into the lower highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG) before continuing higher, as this aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels. Even a quick wick into this zone would be sufficient to rebalance price before continuation.
Following this potential retracement, the structure anticipates a short Wave 4 followed by Wave 5, which is projected to terminate in the upper FVG marked on the chart. This interpretation fits well with the overall bullish macro structure. However, if Wave 4 were to drop below the top of Wave 1, the current count would be invalidated. A move below the start of Wave 1 would raise the probability that the current advance is part of a more complex corrective structure rather than a sustained impulse.
From a derivatives perspective, funding rates remain positive while open interest is stagnating, indicating steady but not accelerating long participation. The liquidity heatmap shows significant liquidity resting below the Wave 2 low, which could act as a magnet for a short-term sweep before continuation.
On a broader level, this setup aligns with the macroeconomic backdrop. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 88.9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Such expectations often lead to markets front-running the event, potentially fuelling impulsive Wave 3 rallies across the crypto sector. However, if bullish positioning becomes excessive, the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction or a liquidation event increases — particularly in assets like SAND, which are already in extended third waves. Institutional positioning likely occurred earlier in the cycle, leaving retail traders to provide the momentum for the next legs up.
As long as key support levels hold and the lower FVG provides the anticipated reaction, SAND remains well-positioned for a continued advance toward the 0.320–0.340 range, with multiple wave degrees supporting the bullish case.
