S & P Index - Volatality Magic StudyThis is for the study purpose based on the index volatility and the level are based on no of points it can move within the short span of time.
SP500 trade ideas
S&P500 is set to rebound to new highsDual EBP on the weekly and daily indicative of bullish price action and time frame allignment. S&P500 is set for new highs.
SPX Peaks at 6,100; Correction Toward 4,600 LikelyThe SP:SPX ’s rally, which kicked off at 3,500 in late 2022, climaxed around 6,100 in February 2025.
Since then, the trend has clearly reversed, and I expect the correction to persist. As long as the index remains below 5,800 (supply), downward momentum should continue.
A pullback toward 4,600 by 2026 appears plausible, with that level likely acting as resistance or support—warranting a fresh assessment upon arrival.
In the near term, the SPX is likely to trade within a 5,100–5,700 range.
05/05 SPX Weekly Playbook - GEX Zone Outlook🔮 What-If Scenarios for This Week – Based on GEX Structure until Firday
Last week’s market momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by almost 3%, effectively erasing the price gap left behind on Liberation Day. The index also strung together nine straight days of gains—something we haven’t seen since late 2004.
Meanwhile, implied volatility dropped significantly, with the VIX touching its lowest level since the holiday, falling to around 22.5.
Several factors seem to have fueled this bullish tone, including a more measured approach from Trump on trade policies and strong quarterly results from major tech names like Microsoft and Meta.
Still, the nature of the buying raises questions—was this a thoughtful rotation, or just a broad sweep of optimism?
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🔄 Chop Zone: 5650 – 5670 (wide transition zone)
🔹 Gamma Flip: 5615
🔺 Key Call Wall: 5725 (5800 potential shift)
🔻 Key Put Wall: 5500 (5400 major support below)
🔼 Upside Path
IF > 5670 → transition cleared →
➡️ 5700 stall / reaction
IF > 5725 → call wall breached →
➡️ Path to 5750 / 5775 → stall at 5800 (largest net call OI)
IF > 5800 → gamma resistance breaks down →
➡️ 5825/5850 zone opens up
🔽 Downside Path
IF < 5615 → gamma flip triggered →
➡️ 5500 = battle zone (massive put wall + high negative GEX)
IF < 5500 → negative gamma squeeze likely →
➡️ Stall zone: 5450 → flush to 5400
IF < 5400 → high-volatility regime →
➡️ Possible acceleration to 5375 / 5340 depending on IV spike
⚖️ Neutral Setup
IF 5650–5670 holds → dealer hedging = balanced →
➡️ Ideal for non-directional spreads / theta plays
➡️ Wait for breakout confirmation above 5670 or below 5615
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🔍 Final Thoughts
We’ve seen a sharp rally since the Trump trade war scare, with barely any meaningful pullback. The market appears to be looking for one—as a breath. Based on current GEX positioning, there’s significantly more downside hedging than upside, especially in the mid-term May expirations.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we crash—but it does mean that moves lower can accelerate faster, while upward breakouts may require more energy or time. In this environment, consider:
Bearish or neutral spreads (put debit spreads, call credit spreads)
Volatility-based strategies
Avoiding naked upside trades unless we see a strong reclaim of 5725+
Stay safe and adapt—GEX doesn’t tell direction, but it does tell where the fire might start, beacuse of reflexting to hedging activity.
Bullish rise off pullback support?S&P500 has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,478.47
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 5,349.10
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level;
Take profit: 5,776.02
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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S&P 500 ChartSupport, Resistance, Trendlines.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell the market. For informational purposes only.
$SPX Rejection at Resistance – Watch 5582 for the Next Major Mov📉 After tagging the 5685–5750 resistance zone, SP:SPX is flashing major downside risk.
🔍 Key Zones:
✅ Resistance tapped: 5705–5838
🟨 FVG (Fair Value Gap): 5642–5582
❗ Daily close below 5582 → Bearish WXY structure confirmed
🟥 Hard invalidation for bulls: 4835.04
💡 I’m open to a retest of the 200DMA (currently 5746), but below 5582 I wouldn’t expect a new high.
This setup offers clear structure, risk-defined short entries, and a measured breakdown scenario if support fails.
Little Rest For SPXI think the SPX structure is more prone to bearishness. There is a structure that will probably move quickly in one direction. I don't think a good structure has been formed for a bottom. And the rise does not seem very strong. For this reason, I expect an increase after the first fall.
Since this situation will probably reflect on crypto, my bearish contracts are still in place. But I am thinking of buying a bullish contract until the FOMC time.
S&P 500 Tests Key Zone Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has reached the 5,700–5,800 zone after a nearly 18% rally in just half a month. This zone could determine whether the rally marks the end of the bearish trend or if more pain lies ahead for the stock market.
The 200-day simple moving average, several previous horizontal support levels, and the most recent top all converge in this area. The upward move has been driven by correction dynamics, optimism around potential trade deals, signs of de-escalation with China, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025.
This week, the FOMC may either temper those optimistic rate cut expectations or hint at a more dovish tone. In either case, some profit-taking may occur ahead of the meeting, and the 5,700–5,800 zone is a strong candidate for that to happen.
April 25 crypto and stock market results📈 April portfolio recap: $2,293 in profit despite market decline
Each month, I publish performance reports to stay accountable and track the real results of my trading strategies across both stock and crypto markets.
In this post, I’ll break down my April 2025 performance — where my portfolio grew, even as the broader market declined.
🏛️ Stock market results: $1,144 profit
Despite a red month for the broader market, my equity portfolio performed well:
• Monthly return: just above 1%
• S&P 500 performance: -44 basis points (−0.44%)
Outperforming the S&P 500 in a down month is never easy, but my holdings managed to stay in the green.
🪙 Crypto portfolio: $1,139 recovery
My crypto allocation also showed strength in April, largely thanks to my liquidity pool strategy, which is finally beginning to yield real results.
• Monthly crypto return: just over 6%
• By comparison, simply holding BTC would have yielded around 14%
While my strategy didn’t beat Bitcoin in raw percentage terms, it offered recovery after previous drawdowns.
📊 Portfolio Overview
• Cumulative profit: $10,000+
• Average portfolio return since inception: ~11.5%
I began investing in 2020, and have steadily built a portfolio that balances growth with risk control. My approach involves both active management (via options and selective equities) and passive yield strategies in DeFi.
🔍 What’s Next?
I’ll continue to post live trade updates, monthly recaps, and strategy breakdowns. If you’re interested in real portfolio transparency and real-time insights — follow along.
Mechanical Over Mood. AlwaysWell, this week really wanted to test both my trading discipline… and my tech patience.
My laptop decided to kick the bucket mid-session.
But honestly? Not even mad.
Because it reminded me of something traders forget too often:
Simple is better. Mechanical is best.
No charts? No problem.
Noisy bias? Ignore it.
Just follow the system and let the setups do the work.
And right now?
The market gave us a Tag off the lower Bollinger Band…
Then a Turn with some clean bullish pulse bars…
Now we’re tagging the upper band again.
Textbook mechanical structure.
No predictions. No overlays. Just rules.
Yes, compression still lingers – the bands are squeezed tighter than my laptop battery casing.
But until something breaks out (or explodes), I’m trading it simple.
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SPX Market View
Some days the market whispers.
Some days it screams.
And then… there are days like this – where it quietly tags, turns, and retags like a kid playing solo hide and seek.
Welcome to compression.
Welcome to Tag ‘n Turn 2: Return to the Band.
Yesterday gave us exactly what we needed:
Tag off the lower Bollinger Band
Bullish pulse bars firing in sequence
Now back to the upper BB as of this morning
It’s a full mechanical cycle playing out in slow motion.
The band width? Still squeezed.
So unless we get a confirmed breakout – no compounding, no fireworks, no fast lane.
That’s not a problem.
It’s a feature.
Why?
Because in environments like this, the strategy doesn’t just work – it filters the noise.
No guesswork. No hoping. No “is this the one?”
Just a defined setup, and a playbook that responds only when the price earns it.
I’m staying bullish as long as this range holds.
Pulse bars off the highs or lows? I’m in.
Breakout confirmed? Let’s ride it.
Dip to mid-band? Still valid.
The structure is intact.
The setup is valid.
And even if my laptop’s dying breath is a warning beep, I’ll still be trading off what matters.
Trade the system. Trust the sequence. Let the rest break down.
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Expert Insights:
Mistake #1: Overcomplicating compressed conditions.
Compression doesn’t mean “do more” – it means “do less, better.”
Fix: Let the pulse bar do the talking. Keep your setup clean.
Mistake #2: Ignoring band re-tags as valid setups.
Returning to the upper or lower band doesn’t invalidate the prior move.
Fix: Use structure. Re-tags can still deliver if pulse bars confirm.
Mistake #3: Letting tech failures bleed into trading decisions.
Just because your screen flickers doesn’t mean your system broke.
Fix: Stay mechanical. Even from a mobile. It’s not the gear – it’s the method.
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Rumour Has It…
Wall Street insiders are reporting that Apple’s next product will be the MacBook Trader, a laptop designed specifically to fail whenever Bollinger Bands compress.
Features include:
An auto-dimming screen whenever pulse bars form
A built-in “Hope Mode” that deletes your rulebook
And a random error that whispers “maybe just this once…”
Traders are advised to plug directly into their mechanical setups or, failing that, scribble strategies on a coffee-stained napkin like it’s 2002.
Rumour has it that a squirrel from Central Park is currently outperforming several hedge funds using nothing but broken Fibonacci tools and pure optimism.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact – Did You Know?
The term “Frankenstein” originally came from Mary Shelley’s story of a scientist trying to control something he didn’t fully understand…
Which is what most traders do with indicators.
They bolt on RSI here, MACD there, sprinkle in some Fibonacci dust, and hope it walks.
But the real monsters aren’t the tools – they’re discretionary trades pretending to be mechanical.
Moral of the story?
You don’t need a stitched-together algo monster.
You just need a clean pulse bar, a set of rules, and the ability to sit still.
S&P 500 correction before the global fall.S&P 500 correction before the global fall of the usa stock market.
Hey traders! I’m sure many of you have noticed that after the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, the markets started getting pretty choppy.
The S&P 500 took a serious dive.
• On the weekly chart, I’ve marked a support level + the 161.8% Fibonacci level, where we might see a bounce back to the $5680–$5800 range.
• But from there, I think we could see the start of a major crash—both in equities and crypto—that could last 1–2 years.
• Based on my estimates, the S&P 500 could drop back to 2020–2021 levels, a wide range of 2200–3000.
• For Bitcoin, we’re talking around $5000; for Ethereum, $100–$300; and for Solana, $2–$12.
3D Chart:
3W Chart:
Real-world events that could tank the stock market this hard:
Global Recession: If major economies (US, China, EU) slide into a recession at the same time—think trade wars, rampant inflation, or a debt crisis—investors will dump risky assets like hot potatoes.
Trade War Escalation: Harsher tariffs between the US and China/EU could wreck supply chains, crush corporate earnings, and spark a full-on market panic.
Geopolitical Conflict: A big blow-up—like a full-scale war or crisis (say, Taiwan or the Middle East)—could send capital fleeing to safe havens (gold, bonds), while stocks and crypto get slaughtered.
Collapse of a Major Financial Player: If a big bank or hedge fund goes bust (Lehman Brothers 2.0-style) due to an overheated market or bad debt, it could trigger a domino effect.
Energy Crisis: A spike in oil/gas prices (from sanctions or conflicts, for example) could kneecap the economy and drag risk assets down with it.
Market Bubble Burst: If the current rally turns out to be a massive bubble (and plenty of folks think it is), its pop could pull indexes down all on its own.
Looming Wars: A potential Russia-Europe war starting as early as 2025, or an Iran-Israel conflict that drags in multiple nations, could destabilize global markets, spike energy prices, and send investors running for the exits.
Bearish drop?S&P500 is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,510.94
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 5,665.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 5,324.97
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US 500 Index – How Far Can the Recovery Extend?The upside recovery in the US 500 index continued last week, adding nearly 5% to close at 5523 on Friday, a 1 month high, as weak short positions continued to be squeezed out by a combination of factors, including signs that US/China trade relations may be starting to thaw out, President Trump pulling back on his initial commentary challenging Federal Reserve independence and more positive Alphabet earnings.
Now, looking forward to the week ahead, traders trying to work out where the index may move next face a number of scheduled economic data updates to digest and then react to, which will provide a health check on the US economy and labour market, while also showing the impact of President Trump's tariffs on US inflation.
These include,
* Tuesday 1500 BST US Consumer Confidence
* Wednesday 1330 BST US Preliminary Q1 GDP,
* Wednesday 1500 BST US PCE Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge)
* Thursday 1500 BST ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey
* Friday 1330 BST US Non-farm Payrolls
Not only that, 4 of the Magnificent Seven companies also report earnings, with Microsoft and Meta results due after the close on Wednesday and Amazon and Apple due after the close on Thursday.
The outcome of all these events, plus trade war/tariff updates may well determine if the rally has already run its course, or has further to go.
Technical Update: Is the Break of Mid-Point (50%) Fibonacci Resistance Important?
Last week was a positive one for the US 500 index, as an 8.5% rally developed from Monday’s session low at 5095 into Friday’s high at 5530. This of course comes after what was an aggressive liquidation of assets into the April lows at 4799 (April 7th), and some may now be asking if this could be a sign of further attempts at price strength.
Much will of course depend on future market sentiment and price trends, but last week’s strength did see a closing break above the 5474 level, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April 2025 price weakness.
This upside move may leave traders looking at the possibilities of further attempts at price strength this week and wondering where the next resistance levels may now stand.
Potential Resistance Levels:
A closing break of a 50% retracement while not a guarantee of further price strength, can suggest risks to higher levels and 5635, which is the higher 62% Fibonacci retracement could be the next resistance level to monitor.
If a further phase of price strength is to materialise, traders might now focus on closing defense of this 5635 resistance, with breaks higher possibly opening up potential tests of 5788, which marks the March 25th session high.
Potential Support Levels:
Of course, as we have said, the latest breaks of the 50% retracement resistance are not a sure sign of continued price strength. So, with that in mind, lets look at possible support levels that if broken, might point to the potential of downside pressure.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last weeks rally stands at 5364, so even if the new week starts with a price setback, this level may need to be broken on a closing basis to suggest risks of further price declines.
Such breaks lower could then point to a deeper decline and retracement towards 5313, the 50% level, even 5262, which is equal to the 62% retracement.
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S&P 500: What’s Happening?S&P 500 Market Update
Recent changes to tariffs have made investors feel more confident, and because of that, the S&P 500 has broken out of a downward trend it had been stuck in. This breakout suggests prices could continue rising for now.
However, technical analysis shows that many investors might still be cautious. A lot of them may plan to sell if the market climbs back near $5,650 (faded yellow rectangle box on chart), trying to limit losses compared to when prices dropped to around $4,800 a few weeks ago.
If the market struggles to get past $5,650 (faded yellow rectangle box on chart), we could see prices fall again, possibly down to around $5,300, before the market settles for a bit and decides on its next big move.
• Blue line: shows the path I expect the market to take based on investor behavior and technical patterns.
• White line: shows the general trend where buyers typically step in. If the price falls through this line, it could signal more downside ahead.
What the S&P did and what to look forward to this coming week. A walkthrough different levels on the S&P for the short term (1-2 weeks).
The S&P broke above a key weekly downtrend line this past week, shifting the structure slightly more bullish in the short term. We’re now testing an important resistance zone with multiple possible scenarios ahead.
Scenarios for the Week Ahead:
Bullish:
If the S&P holds above the breakout zone (5484) and continues climbing, we could see a move toward 5,650 (near the declining 50SMA). Some minor pauses or consolidations could occur at moving averages, but overall momentum would remain constructive if buyers stay active.
Bearish:
If the S&P fails to hold above 5,484 and breaks back below the uptrend line, we could see a pullback toward (in this order) 10 and 20 EMAs, recent uptrend line, or at most the key level around 5,264. A deeper breakdown seems less likely unless broader selling pressure returns.
Neutral: Think this would be a chop between where it is at now and 5650.
BUY s&p 500Elliott wave forecast clearly indicates 3 wave ABC is ended.
a new ABC wave emerging to reach the previous highs
Traders can use this bullish recovery for short term oppertunity
Another move down for SPX500USD?Hi traders,
SPX500USD made a bigger orange X-wave last week into the Daily FVG.
So next week we could see the start of the last impulse wave down to finish the bigger (red) WXY correction. But it first has to close below the Daily FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish, a small impulse wave down and a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Spy putsHello friends.
We just bought some 5/16 $550 SPY puts. It's looking like the low for this crash is not anywhere near being in. Retail is still in a buying frenzy because they expect that this will be another V shaped recovery like we're used to. Meanwhile the smart money is selling everything they have and expecting more blood. The fed hasn't come in to save this market, and they aren't going to be able to. Their hands will be tied by artifical inflation caused by tariffs and there won't be an intervention until it's already too late.
Built Up Swing Short Bet Over the Last Day.Got another good chunk of the rally taking our net SPX long earnings to over 20% for the year on low risk (For context, our max DD is about 1/4 of what SPX is down this year).
I still would prefer to see 5800 for me to take a real big swing at the short (because I know at 5800 even if I am wrong I'll generally get some reaction to size down a bit in risk) but we may undershoot that.
I've build up my position around the 5400 sort of area. Small tolerance for stop zones. If I am wrong, I think 5800 would hit really quickly.
Update to below idea.
Is This a Massive AB=CD? I first joined this site under the "HoleyProfit" username in 2021 to give my warnings of potential bear markets. Obvious bear setups forming in the meme mania and I also though this would extend into the indices given a bit of time.
I was a bit early on the indices but over the following months all the tops were made and the drops came to pass.
Late 2022 I began to pivot back to bull when there was signs of bear trend failure and by early 2023 I was fully in the bull camp.
At the time I started to talk about a blow off top move. One which was exactly similar in size and style as the 2021 rally but the angle of the rally for a bit sharper.
This would have predicted a parabolic run to somewhere around 6000 - which has since come to pass.
Read the original post below.
If my thesis that we were heading into a giant D leg was correct, then that would mean we have a top made.
And we'd enter into super ugly market conditions over the coming months.
