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US500's Volatility ContinuesThe US500's volatility at this week is primarily driven by the reversal of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) rally that has propelled the index since April. The core of this weakness lies in the tech mega-cap stocks. Fundamental Analysis The market's structural support is encountering short-term uncertainty: Valuation Concerns: Investors are questioning if the AI-fueled surge has gone too far, leading to profit-taking and caution, especially after a year of strong performance. Data Vacuum: The longest US government shutdown in history continues to limit the release of key economic data, clouding the outlook for interest rates and injecting uncertainty into the market. Corporate Fundamentals remain Solid: Despite the volatility, the underlying support is maintained by solid corporate earnings and the prospect of eventual Fed easing. Technical Analysis The US500 is currently undergoing a technical correction driven by sector shakeouts in tech, but strong underlying buying interest at key retracement levels suggests the medium-term bull market is technically intact. A move above 6,830 is required to resume the uptrend. Key Levels 6,640 Psychological and short-term support area. 6,500 A decisive break below this level would warn of a deeper correction. 6,830 A sustained move above this level opens the door to new highs. 7,000 A major psychological level. Outlook The market is in a phase of necessary consolidation. While short-term volatility is high, the consensus view suggests fundamental weakness has not materialized enough to trigger a major crash. Immediate Outlook: Expect continued choppy and volatility. The focus shifts to private economic indicators and any news regarding the government shutdown. Longer-Term View: Analysts generally "don't see any big correction on the horizon" until year-end, as long-term investors continue to focus on solid earnings and the eventual benefit of lower rates. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPXShort
by WiseLeoTrading
S&P500 resilient US data reignited riskRisk appetite returned to markets over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 rising +0.37% as stronger US data and optimism over a potential end to the government shutdown lifted sentiment. The ADP private payrolls report surprised to the upside at +42k (vs. +30k expected), while the ISM Services index jumped to 52.4 (vs. 50.8 expected) with new orders at a 12-month high, easing fears of an economic slowdown after Monday’s weak manufacturing data. The improved tone triggered a broad risk-on rally: US HY spreads tightened (-9bps) for the first time in a week. Bitcoin rebounded (+3.38%) after recent losses. Asian equities followed through overnight, with the Nikkei up +1.48% and Hang Seng +1.61%. Despite solid data, Treasuries rallied as markets priced a higher chance of a December Fed rate cut, sending the USD to its biggest 3-week drop. In corporate news, SpaceX agreed to buy EchoStar’s AWS-3 spectrum licenses for $2.6bn in stock, while EchoStar booked a $16.5bn non-cash charge tied to its 5G network wind-down. However, some valuation concerns are re-emerging — the “Buffett Indicator” now shows US equities worth over twice GDP, with total market cap around $72tn, underscoring stretched levels after a +36% rally since April lows. Bottom line: The S&P 500 regained momentum as resilient US data reignited risk appetite and rate-cut hopes, though extended valuations remain a potential headwind. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by Trade Nation
S&P 500 at Critical Support – Last Line of Defense?Since the S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) is one of the key indicators in the financial markets, and it’s been highly correlated with parallel markets recently, it's always a good idea to keep an eye on its analysis. Now, for example, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to decline as the S&P 500 index dropped, and right now the S&P 500 index is at a pretty critical Support zone($6,774_$6,689) and Support lines. It's essentially moving right around its last line of hope. From an Elliott Wave theory perspective, in this current zone, the S&P 500 index could be completing the Triple Three Correction(WXYXZ)=main wave 4. Looking ahead, we might expect the S&P 500 index to climb up toward its Resistance zone($6,894_$6,859). And given the current positioning, the risk-to-reward ratio looks quite favorable—as long as you keep a reasonable stop loss in place and practice good risk management. Note: if these Support lines break downward, we could see further declines in the S&P 500 index and in those correlated markets as well. So it's definitely something to monitor closely. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by pejman_zwin
5
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 7000.Colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and at the moment the formation of wave “3” is taking place, but the chart shows a gap that should be closed. Therefore, I believe that the price can go into correction of the small wave “4” to the area of 6823, but the priority is still the upward movement, as I believe to the resistance area of 7000. Fundamental context U.S. business activity strengthened in October: the S&P Global PMI rose to 54.8, indicating expansion in both manufacturing and services sectors. However, uncertainty persists — business sentiment and export performance have weakened, while the partial government shutdown limits data visibility. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue rate cuts as the economy shows signs of slowing. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
11
This is the END(ing diagonal)The ending diagonal has formed. If you check RSI you will see a double daily and fresh WEEKLY divergence. It will crash hard next week. 6480 is the first target, but it can be just a bounce area. 1.618 level from low to top of the diagonal is at 6400 level on SPX and at 6300 level on US500 - I think we can get a flash-crash into this area next week. And if this is a reversal, it can trend down to February peak and lower according to fibs.
TVC:SPXShort
by Supergalactic
SPX:uptrend remains intact – consolidating for the next breakoutOn the 4-hour chart, the S&P 500 (SPX) continues to move firmly within its ascending channel , with the current range around 6,850–6,900 representing a healthy pause after a strong rally. The nearest support sits at 6,800, where buyers previously stepped in, while short-term resistance remains near 6,900. From a news perspective, the rally is still being driven by tech and AI sectors , especially after the Amazon–OpenAI partnership deal , which reignited positive sentiment across the market. However, investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. ADP employment and ISM PMI data , which could influence the Fed’s next rate-cut decision. Overall, the technical structure still supports an upward bias: SPX is consolidating between 6,800–6,900 before potentially breaking toward the 7,000-point zone , aligning with the upper boundary of the trend channel. As long as the 6,800 support holds, the market retains room for another bullish leg in the sessions ahead, backed by renewed capital inflows into leading sectors.
SP:SPXLong
by Kairo_Vexen
16
Bull Run Stumbles: S&P 500 Heads Toward a Potential Correction After a rough day on Wall Street, the S&P 500 dropped about 1.2%, pulling U.S. markets lower. But there’s more behind this fall than just profit-taking. What’s Really Happening? Warning Signs from Wall Street Two top banking leaders raised caution. Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick expects a 10–15% correction, calling it a “healthy normalization.” Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon warned that tech stocks are showing bubble-like behavior, with prices running much faster than earnings. AI Boom Driving Market Concentration The AI craze and tech optimism have made a few mega-cap companies dominate the market. In fact, just 10 big tech firms now make up nearly 40% of the S&P 500’s total value, making the market more fragile. Fed Confusion Adds to Uncertainty The Federal Reserve is sending mixed signals — some officials talk about possible rate cuts by December, while others say rates should stay high because the economy is still strong. Adding to the mess, a partial U.S. government shutdown has delayed key data, leaving investors and the Fed guessing about what’s really happening in the economy. What the Chart Reveals From a technical standpoint, the U.S. market’s rally has been nothing short of extraordinary. Since the April bottom near 4,835, the index has soared nearly 42%, touching a recent peak around 6,920 — and even gained about 12–13% before the latest (April 2025) pullback began. But now, the momentum seems to be fading. The chart is flashing early warning signals — RSI divergence suggests that while prices made new highs, the underlying strength (momentum) did not. That often hints at a potential trend reversal. If this weakness deepens, the index could correct swiftly by around 10%, targeting the 6,200–6,100 zone. And if the “healthy normalization” predicted by Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick (a 15% drop) plays out, the index might slide further to around 5,700 — a level that would reset valuations to more reasonable territory after the sharp run-up. Valuation Check Let’s set aside all the opinions and headlines for a moment and focus on the key valuation metrics that truly help us understand the real picture of the U.S. market. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio — The Market’s Mood Meter P/E Ratio = Current Market Price/Earnings Per Share (EPS) So, Current Market Price = P/E Ratio*EPS Currently, the S&P 500’s P/E ratio stands at 30.8x, with an EPS of $222.5. When you multiply the two — 30.8 × 222.5 = roughly $6,800 — it perfectly aligns with the index’s recent market level. Now, to find out what the fair value of the market should be, let’s use the 5-year median P/E ratio, which is around 25.4x. Fair Market Price = 25.4*222.5 = 6,650. This aligns perfectly with the technical chart levels, suggesting that a 15% correction would be a healthy pullback to help cool down the overheated U.S. market. The Buffett Indicator — Market Cap vs. GDP One of Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation tools compares the total U.S. stock market capitalization to the country’s GDP — essentially measuring how large the market has grown relative to the real economy. At present, this ratio stands at around 224%, far above the long-term fair value range of 100–120%. Even when compared to its 5-year median level of 192%, the market still appears significantly overvalued. To return to its median level, the ratio would need to drop by roughly: 100 = 16.6% That’s roughly a 15–16% correction, which again perfectly aligns with both the technical chart signals and Ted Pick’s projection of a healthy market normalization. The Bottom Line The U.S. market’s extraordinary rally has been built on a mix of AI optimism, liquidity hopes, and investor euphoria, but the fundamentals are starting to whisper caution. Both valuation metrics and technical signals point to the same conclusion — the market is stretched, and a 10–15% correction wouldn’t be a disaster; it would be a return to balance. History shows that every overheated bull run needs a pause — not to end the story, but to give it a stronger foundation. So if the coming months bring some red on the screen, smart investors will see it not as fear, but as the market taking a deep breath before its next big move.
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
1
US 500 - Has All the Good News Been Priced?Concerns about excessive stock market valuations, especially when talking about AI focused companies, isn’t something new. In fact, it has been an on-going theme over the last 6 months of the year leading to bouts of risk aversion. This was again the case late on Monday evening, and throughout the day yesterday when the earnings of Palantir Technologies were in the spotlight. The strange thing was that the earnings from this company, released after the close on Monday, beat analysts’ expectations, however a lack of clarity on future revenue needed to justify a market capitalisation of over $600 billion was what brought the latest concerns of an AI bubble back to the attention of traders, leading to a negative sentiment shift for the wider sector and the US 500 index in general. Now, this may or may not be the start of a wider correction and much will depend on future risk events, price action and technical trends (more on this below), however the question for traders this time around is whether the positive news flow for US indices in the short term has already been priced? After all the US 500 index only hit a new record of 6925 on October 30th, 5 days ago. November and December are historically strong performance months for the US 500, however currently traders are faced with several issues to navigate. Only a week ago the Federal Reserve cast some doubt over whether a rate cut in December would happen or not, with policymakers maintaining this stance in their comments at various events since then. This wasn’t expected and has led to some disappointment for traders which weighed on US 500 sentiment. Q3 earnings have generally beaten expectations but then valuations were already high to reflect this, leading to some potential fatigue. Trade tensions between the US-China have cooled, but concerns still remain about economic growth in both countries, especially in the US, where a US government shutdown has led to the delay of key data releases such as CPI, retail sales and the all-important Non-farm Payrolls update on the current health of the US labour market, a key factor influencing the decision making of the Fed on potential interest rate cuts. This means the release of today’s US ADP Private Payrolls data at 1315 GMT and the US ISM Services PMI survey at 1500 GMT could have a bigger influence over the direction of the US 500 moving across the week. Technical levels and trends may also become increasingly important. Technical Update: Back to Fibonacci Retracement Support After reaching a new all-time high of 6925 on October 30th, the US 500 index has corrected by 2.9%, easing short-term overextended upside conditions. This pullback may reflect a healthy pause within a broader uptrend, but the question now appears to be whether this marks the extent of corrective downside moves or is the beginning of a phase of further price weakness. As the chart below shows, latest declines in the US 500 index have now returned to a potential support zone at 6750/6760, marking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 10th to 30th rally and the current level of the Bollinger mid-average. This possible support band may limit current declines, but closing behaviour around this area could be important in determining whether buyers can regain the upper hand or if deeper corrective risks can emerge. Traders could now be watching this 6750/6760 support closely, as closing break below might see increased downside pressure. Such moves could then mean focus shifts to 6711, even 6661, marking the deeper 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. That said, while the support is currently under pressure, the 6750/6760 range still holds on a closing basis and may help limit further selling pressure, even possibly see renewed attempts at price upside. However, traders may also now be monitoring 6825, equal to half the recent price decline, as a resistance level in the sessions ahead. If momentum is to shift back toward attempts to renew price strength, a closing break above 6825 may be required to suggest scope to retest the 6925 October 30th all-time high. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. 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PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
SPX500 – Bullish Momentum Holds Above 6812 | Eyeing 6877 NextSPX500 – MARKET OVERVIEW | Bullish Bias Above 6812 The SPX500 index continues to show bullish momentum, holding firm above the pivot zone (6812–6797). As long as price action remains above 6812, upside movement is expected toward 6842 and 6877, with a potential extension toward 6915 if bullish sentiment strengthens. However, a sustained move below 6796 would weaken the current trend and open the way for a short-term bearish correction toward 6769 and 6754. Key Technical Levels Pivot Zone: 6812 – 6797 Resistance: 6842 · 6877 · 6915 Support: 6769 · 6735 · 6705 Outlook: SPX500 remains bullish while above 6812, but a close below 6796 could trigger a corrective decline toward 6769–6754.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
V Pattern In SPX/USDHey fellow traders and followers! Look what I found on the 8hr SPX chart. Looks like a developing V pattern so far. What could that mean ? Means up to me. Here are the numbers; We need to break and hold above the Break Line of 6873.1 area to solidify a long position to Target 1) 6939.7 Target 2) 6966.7 I can't stress enough the importance of the Break Line area being a solid support in order for the trade to have a 8 out of 10 chance to make you money. This move if reached fetches a nice profit $$$ Just look at the points you can gain where I posted it on the chart. Ok, let's see how things play out... See you at the starting gate $$$
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Trade-Farmer
SPX500 - Biggest Weekly Loss as AI Valuations Face ScrutinySPX500 – MARKET OUTLOOK | Biggest Weekly Loss as AI Valuations Face Scrutiny 🇺🇸 The S&P 500 posted its largest weekly loss in weeks as investors questioned high AI stock valuations and shifted toward safer assets. The index remains under bearish pressure while trading below 6,770, with momentum favoring further downside. 🔽 Below 6,770: Bearish continuation toward 6,705 → 6,670 → 6,610. 🔼 Above 6,782: Bullish correction toward 6,814 → 6,842. Pivot Zone: 6,755–6,765 Support: 6,705 · 6,670 · 6,610 Resistance: 6,798 · 6,814 · 6,842 SPX500 remains bearish while below 6,770, but a confirmed 1H close above 6,782 could trigger a short-term recovery toward 6,814–6,842.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
NQ / Future'sToday’s price action was a clear example of structural breakdown. The clues started forming about a week ago and began to solidify by Monday morning, with confirmation coming early Tuesday. It’s simple — once you understand market structure, you can avoid bad entries and emotional trades. I alerted everyone ahead of time not to go long and outlined the most likely scenario, which played out exactly as expected. You had clue's from bitcoin, you had clue's from SPX. Everybody becomes suprised when the market rips and or drops but you have the answers in front of you 24/7, literally.
SP:SPX
by Smalldikenergy
1
S&P to inflect at the Fib extension about now? Will the SP500 inflect at the fib extension of 1.618 of the prior dip down? This is an important price level to watch to see if the index is bullish or bearish My view is that its going to be a bearish outcome, however the market is being a bit naughty at the moment and it may push you over this price level to take out liquidity first before heading lower. There are very few bears left out there - will they come out of hibernation right about now?
SPREADEX:SPXShort
by William_Playfair
1
Upcoming End of the Shutdown & Market LiquidityThe end of a U.S. government shutdown is often interpreted as a mere political signal. Yet, from a financial perspective, this event can mark a major turning point for global liquidity. One of the most direct mechanisms through which this occurs is the Treasury General Account (TGA) — the U.S. Treasury’s main account at the Federal Reserve (Fed). 1) The TGA: a true liquidity reservoir The TGA functions as the federal government’s current account. When it receives revenues (taxes, bond issuance, etc.), funds are deposited there. When it spends — salaries, contractor payments, social programs — those amounts leave the TGA and flow toward commercial banks and households. Each dollar spent by the Treasury exits the Fed and enters the private sector, increasing bank reserves and overall financial system liquidity. Conversely, when the Treasury issues bonds and collects money from investors, bank reserves decline since those funds are transferred into the TGA. 2) Shutdown: a period of silent contraction During a shutdown, the government is largely paralyzed. Many payments are suspended or delayed, reducing cash outflows. As a result, the TGA drains much more slowly, and available liquidity in the financial system decreases. It is worth noting that the TGA had just finished refilling in early October — exactly at the onset of the shutdown. 3) The end of the shutdown: a sharp reinjection As soon as the shutdown ends, the U.S. Treasury must catch up on deferred spending — wages, contracts, and federal programs. These large disbursements cause a rapid decline in the TGA, equivalent to a direct injection of liquidity into the economy. Bank reserves increase mechanically, repo rates may ease, and risk assets — equities, high-yield bonds, crypto-assets — often experience a short-term rebound. This liquidity surge is not sustainable: once payments are settled, the Treasury usually reissues debt to rebuild the TGA to its target level. This reverse phase then withdraws the excess liquidity from the market. In the short term, however, the end of a shutdown acts as a positive liquidity pump, capable of influencing the trend of risk assets on financial markets. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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SP:SPXEducation
by Swissquote
S&P 500 Technical & Fundamental Outlook — Week of Nov 3–7, 2025🧭 S&P 500 Technical & Fundamental Outlook — Week of Nov 3–7, 2025 Chart View: Price is consolidating between 6,815 support and 6,921–6,940 resistance, holding just above the major ascending trend line from October. This area marks a critical inflection: will buyers defend the trend, or will we finally break structure? 📊 Technical Breakdown Primary Trend: Uptrend intact while above trend line support. Key Support Zone: 6,800 – 6,815 (buyers last defended strongly). Major Breakdown Level: Below 6,656 opens the door to 6,550 and new lower lows. Resistance Zone: 6,921 – 6,940 (previous swing high & supply area). Bias: Neutral-to-bullish while above 6,815; bearish momentum accelerates under 6,656. 🟢 Bullish Path: Use the trend line as a launchpad to retest 6,921+. 🔴 Bearish Path: Break and close below 6,815 → target 6,656 then 6,550. 🗓 Macro Calendar – Key Events to Watch Mon (Nov 3) – ISM Manufacturing PMI (48.7 vs 49.4 prior) → Soft manufacturing data keeps Fed-cut expectations alive. Tue (Nov 4) – ECB President Lagarde speaks (2 appearances) → Watch EUR/USD volatility; global equity tone may shift if dovish. Wed (Nov 5) – ADP Employment (+31K expected after –32K prior); ISM Services PMI (50.7 exp) → Jobs rebound or slowdown will steer rate-cut bets and risk appetite. Thu (Nov 6) – Bank of England rate decision (4.00% expected hold) + Governor Bailey speech; FOMC Member Waller speaks (2:30 PM ET) → Cross-market rate tone could affect bond yields → equity valuations. Fri (Nov 7) – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment + UoM Sentiment (53.0 exp) → This is the week’s main volatility catalyst. Strong jobs = hawkish pressure; weak jobs = bullish equities. 💬 Market Sentiment & Headlines AI Mania Continues: Amazon hit a record after a $38 B OpenAI deal via AWS, fueling tech momentum. Earnings Strength: 80% of S&P companies beat Q3 estimates; megacap tech remains the driver. Breadth Concerns: 300+ S&P names closed red Monday — showing the rally is narrow and fragile. Other Corporate Moves: Kimberly-Clark to acquire Kenvue ($48.7 B), Starbucks China JV announcement. Macro Backdrop: Investors await clarity on Fed policy path and global rate decisions amid softening manufacturing data. 🧩 Trader’s Take This week is all about trend-line defense vs breakdown. Stay flexible: Above 6,815 → trend continuation bias. Below 6,656 → prepare for deeper retracement toward 6,550. Macro data + AI headlines are creating a push-pull market: tech buoyancy vs broader weakness. 📅 Watch the reaction during ISM & NFP — these will likely decide direction for mid-November. #SPX #SP500 #Futures #TradingView #PriceAction #Fundamentals #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarket #AIStocks #MacroWeek #NFP #ISM #Fed #Equities #Amazon #OpenAI #NASDAQ #SPX500
SP:SPX
by SteveGold325
Potential Range Rebalance After Bullish Exhaustion on SP500Based on Candle Range Theory , the recent large bullish range has been followed by a series of smaller bearish candles, showing reduced momentum and potential exhaustion from buyers. Price is currently retracing into the lower range of the previous expansion, indicating that liquidity may be resting below. If price fails to reclaim the upper range of the previous bullish candle, we could see continuation to the downside as the market seeks equilibrium within or below that expansion range. However, a strong rejection from the lower boundary could confirm range preservation and set up another bullish leg. In short : the market’s next move depends on whether this retracement turns into a liquidity grab or a deeper correction beneath the prior candle range.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Short
by BeaucoupPips
US500 maintains inherently bullish structureFundamental Analysis US500 maintains an inherently bullish structure, trading above both EMAs. Q3 earnings were strong, with 83% of companies beating expectations and delivering 13.8% blended EPS growth, largely thanks to megacap tech/AI. However, the forward P/E ratio is high at 23.1x (above the 5-year average of 19.9x), signaling elevated valuations. The recent profit taking in high growth names like AMD and Nvidia due to margin concerns and macro headwinds (high rates/inflation) exposes this valuation sensitivity. Technical Analysis The index is currently pulling back from all time highs near 6,900, consolidating in a short term support zone of 6,750. Momentum is neutralizing with RSI approx 51.6, indicating a pause rather than a reversal. Key technical battleground: Resistance at 6,885 and 6,920 versus support at 6,750 and the EMA at 6,700. Consolidation is the most probable short term path. Sentiment Analysis Sentiment is cautious to slightly negative. The sharp correction in AI leaders (AMD, NVDA) has fueled "AI bubble" fears, overriding fundamentally strong earnings reports. There is a clear, broad sector rotation occurring as investors de-risk and take year end profits from high growth tech toward defensive/value plays. The market is currently driven by nervousness about sustaining premium valuations against persistent macro uncertainty. Outlook The near term outlook is moderately cautious. While the long term bullish trend remains supported by healthy corporate earnings, the market faces an inflection point driven by overvaluation concerns in the tech sector. Further short term volatility is expected as the market digests earnings nuances (like margin guidance) and awaits clearer signals on US monetary policy and inflation. A decisive break of the 6,750 support or 6,885 resistance will likely define the next directional move. Analysis is by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Agenda 89 --- the path to spy's next major topso I been rambling about agenda 89 and spy cycles for like ages. I also more or less blew my account up not listening to my own advice and my own levels. key thing here is market follows cycles. and no I am not willing to share the prior cycles. this here is for me more than anyone else. I am not good with numbers so I had chatgpt do the calculations for me and the rationale made sense given my basic college math level knowledge. In fact the cycles that gpt calculated appeared to follow the same cycle rules that I used to detect the historical cycles. I have only 3 historical cycles detected. in recent times. reason being that since 2008 Aladdin took over the market and things changed. there is a certain year where it all did shift but for simplicity only data after 2008 matters because after that Aladdin by blackrock the mega algorithm managed all the trillions that move the market daily. it literally trades with itself. it's too huge to fail so I will not fight it. the cycles have also been shrinking in expansion per say. the next top is likley the last or second to last before some major black swans start happening. At least that's what aladdin has priced in. he knows more about you than yourself and other notes is that the tops follow wycoff style, the expanded and got more volatile as they progressed and I plan to follow the same pattern in my projections. my projections are half lazy in terms of the tops/bottoms. it can really follow any wycoff. but of note, when all was noted and combined chatgpt described it as a wycoff schematic #1. even though when I typed the pattern that i saw in i labeled it as musical notes. I did not paint very well on chart because things in real life do not follow the textbook 1-1, point is, whipsaw and that's your range there more or less. I am not sure how to past an image here so just google it. the rules and this is for me to not blow my account up anymore: 1- no timing the market, it dipped? good it can dip lower before tuning up. so expect the trades to be long. were looking at 13 dips before the top in febuary. 2- the numbers can be off slightly. I'm no picasso, can;t time or paint the market. levels evolve and change with time. the range wont change though. 3- the true top is likley a tuesday or a wednesday since historically it was those days so extra bias for them 4- no greed 5- yes this will chop until next year mid febuary - do not blow up. RANGE BOUND. I'm expecting possibilities of up to 720-730 for the top on spy since that would be two full cycles in geometry which would make sense assuming the prior 3 were 90 degrees each. hence a strong belief of mine that this may be the last market cycle aladdin is pricing in before doomsday events. Aladdin probably knows when WW3 will start before the guys launching the nukes know it will start and has been pricing it in since it took over the markets. that thing is a monster beyond comprehension.
SP:SPX
by Bigloss109
7
SPX Breaks Down: Tech Momentum Cools as Risk-Off Sentiment BuildThe S&P 500 just broke below its short-term descending channel — confirming selling pressure is building. High-valuation tech and AI names like NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:GOOGL , NASDAQ:MU , and NASDAQ:PLTR are leading the pullback as investors rotate out of crowded trades. Macro headwinds — Fed uncertainty, stretched valuations, and global weakness — are weighing on sentiment. Near-term bias stays bearish unless SP:SPX can reclaim 6,850.
SP:SPX
by Alchemy Markets