Arshitecture / 30 Min Short Position SP500After the price reaches TP1, hold the current short position and consider adding to it on valid signals to ride the move toward TP2. Apply the same strategy for TP3, scaling in cautiously at key resistance zones.
I’ll share the key confirmations on the chart as they appear.
Goodluck BLUEBERRY:SP500
SP500FT trade ideas
Could The Stock Market Crash? - WARNING 🚨MartyBoots here , I have been trading for 17 years and sharing my thoughts on SPX .🚨
🚨 SP:SPX Could It Crash?🚨
Lets look into it deeper, very interesting chart but also a dangerous one. Need to see buyers soon or this is could be worse than people expect. 5-10% drop minimum and extreme bear could drop 40% total🚨
Watch video for more details
SPX: confusion will continueFinally some positive sentiment on the US equity markets. The S&P 500 marked a weekly gain of 4,6%, while investors are waging the relaxation of the ongoing trade tariffs war. Regardless of estimates of the future impact of imposed tariffs, the US tech companies are still posting relatively good results. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.525, which was the market low in March and beginning of April this year.
Alphabet gained 1,5% during the week, on the wings of posted relatively good results above estimates. Other big tech companies were also supported, like Tesla, Nvidia and Meta. Only on Friday, Nvidia gained 4,3%, while Tesla advanced by 9,8% within one day. Regardless of positive weekly results, it is still not time to celebrate. The news regarding trade tariffs coming from the US Administration still continues to be mixed, bringing a high level of confusion among market participants. In this sense, it could be expected that volatility on the equity markets will continue also in the future period.
US500 TRADE IDEAhi again
The US500 has shown strength by breaking the resistance at 5483.5 and is now at 5535. If the price reaches 5604.6 and a pullback occurs, targeting a temporary decline at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is a good strategy.
Fibonacci retracement is often used to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price might pause or reverse. The 50% level is one of the commonly watched levels by traders as it often indicates a significant turning point in price movement.
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index demonstrated a steady to higher price movement, achieving a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5550 and successfully surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5672. This trajectory establishes the foundation for sustained upward momentum as it approaches the Mean Resistance level of 5778 and sets sights on reaching the next Outer Index Rally target marked at 5945. However, it is essential to acknowledge the substantial risk of a sharp retracement from the current price level to the Mean Support level of 5601, with the potential for further decline to the Mean Support level of 5525.
SPX: Good push at EOD 4/30, but…Possible H&S? Hear me outGood push at end of day on 4/30 at close.
Zooming out, it’s starting look like it’s forming a H&S. I’m starting to see a lot of people flipping bearish as well. But, also near close today, volume was not promising, declining at the close.
I swung short-term puts on SPY, I like SPX puts for a day trade due to this formation but this H&S can possibly out within the end of week with more data and uncertainty or the following week.
I’m short at the touch of the light red line: 5655.79 to the downside.
Gaps below 5354.76, 5206.44
Would say by EOW to next week, if we pull back, may form/complete the right shoulder.
Do your DD!
Let me know your thoughts! #NFA
May 6, 2025 - Markets Hold Their Breath Before Powell SpeaksHello everyone, it’s May 6, 2025 and markets are once again at the mercy of politics, Powell, and presidential mood swings.
After a 9-day rally, U.S. markets finally took a breather yesterday, with mild profit-taking ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision. Investors are caught between two competing visions: Trump’s push for massive rate cuts, insisting inflation is a myth cooked up by bureaucrats, and Powell’s more sober stance acknowledging inflation isn’t dead, the economy is softening, and premature easing could trigger full-blown stagflation.
With Friday’s job report stronger than expected, Powell is expected to hold rates steady, staying cautious while tariffs and growth clouds loom. Markets are pricing in a July cut at best, but uncertainty lingers mostly around what Trump might tweet in reaction to Powell’s speech tomorrow night.
Meanwhile, despite the 90-day tariff moratorium, the trade war narrative hasn’t vanished. NYSE:F suspended its 2025 outlook, citing $1.5 billion in expected tariff costs and four major risks: disrupted supply chains, retaliatory measures, unclear tax policies, and emission rules. NASDAQ:MAT is also hedging its bets shifting production out of China and pausing forecasts, while begging for zero tariffs on toys “for the kids.” Their stocks dropped modestly after hours.
OANDA:XAUUSD surged again to $3,368, as fear and safe-haven demand ticked up. BLACKBULL:WTI rebounded to over $58 following an OPEC statement, helping airline stocks breathe a bit. BINANCE:BTCUSDT continued its meteoric rise, now sitting around $94,400.
On the macro front, inflation data like CPI and PPI are being shrugged off everyone’s waiting to see if Powell plays ball with Trump. There’s hope, too, that all this chaos is just Trump’s way of muscling the world into negotiation especially China and if a “deal” emerges, markets could rip higher. Until then, we’re stuck dancing between uncertainty and hope.
Asia opened strong this morning, led by China’s cautious optimism. Futures point slightly lower in the U.S., and volatility remains king. The Fed could flip the script tomorrow or keep us hanging. Stay buckled in.
$SPX Rejection at Resistance – Watch 5582 for the Next Major Mov📉 After tagging the 5685–5750 resistance zone, SP:SPX is flashing major downside risk.
🔍 Key Zones:
✅ Resistance tapped: 5705–5838
🟨 FVG (Fair Value Gap): 5642–5582
❗ Daily close below 5582 → Bearish WXY structure confirmed
🟥 Hard invalidation for bulls: 4835.04
💡 I’m open to a retest of the 200DMA (currently 5746), but below 5582 I wouldn’t expect a new high.
This setup offers clear structure, risk-defined short entries, and a measured breakdown scenario if support fails.
US500: A correction will give a perfect opportunityHello,
The US500 has rebounded, maintaining its trendline as trade tension concerns subside. A promising trade setup is emerging, pending a minor correction on lower timeframes. The 2-hour and 4-hour charts indicate this correction is underway.
Long term target: $6,953
Consider entering a buy position near the moving averages, aligned with MACD signals.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPX 1st rejection1st rejection of last week's close. I say mark the zone and be cautious. Key levels will be targets (daily hi & lo minimum). If your hit targets, take profit. when aiming above, take the trade from a support level or specific candle shift.
Again... FOMC Wed 5/7. Will update my thoughts daily this week.
$SPX / $SP500 – China Deal or Global Meltdown? The Risk/Reward 📉 The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / VANTAGE:SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads.
After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome:
Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China
Estimated probability: 20%
Potential upside: +10%
Expected value: +2%
Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China
Estimated probability: 80%
Potential downside: -50%
Expected value: -40%
📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility ( TVC:VIX ) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.
Weekend Trading Note - 3 May 2025A couple of interesting dynamics in the market over the latter half of the week:
- Minimal reaction to economic data suggests that traders are weighing the pull between deflation and tariffs, which are undoubtedly putting the fed in a bind. Can they raise rates at a time of uncertainty when it comes to tariff-induced inflation. Recent data suggests deflation and a strong economy. Nothing is clear.
- The temporary uncoupling of BTC and the Nasdaq100 is interesting, but such narrative-led decoupling has happened on a short-term basis before. Perhaps this time the anti-dollar trade will continue a while longer, until calm is restored.
- Businesses seem to be reacting to the Trump uncertainty by slowing down their trading activity and hesitating to invest or grow until more clarity is available. The loss of confidence and reassurance of clear direction may be damaging in the longer-term, elevating the potential for a technical recession as business enter more defensive posturing.
- Theres still some potential for good news around a deal between the US and China leading to a return to a risk-on regime in the near-term. The question on whether this will be enough to propel US equities to new all time highs will depend on the pre-existing structural issues with the macroeconomy
Enough macro. Here’s what I’m looking at in markets:
- SPX has retraced back up to the 0.618 fib of the recent downside move. This coincides with the POC on the anchored volume profile (anchored from the ATH). If the SPX is going to retest the lows, I’d expect it this begin in the next 5-10 days. A complete breakdown below its current lows is unlikely at this stage, but a wick slightly below current lows marking the bottom is definitely on the cards.
- BTC’s relative strength is encouraging. A retest of the $88700 level would offer a good entry for a trade back up to the current high at around $109K and perhaps more.
US Markets on the Edge – Heavy Bloodshed Ahead!The charts are screaming caution!
SPX, Nasdaq, and major tech stocks are showing clear signs of exhaustion. We could be entering a heavy correction phase.
This is not the time to be greedy — protect your capital, manage risk, and tighten those stop losses.
Stay alert. Stay smart.
Massive moves are coming, and not everyone will survive them.
SPX Peaks at 6,100; Correction Toward 4,600 LikelyThe SP:SPX ’s rally, which kicked off at 3,500 in late 2022, climaxed around 6,100 in February 2025.
Since then, the trend has clearly reversed, and I expect the correction to persist. As long as the index remains below 5,800 (supply), downward momentum should continue.
A pullback toward 4,600 by 2026 appears plausible, with that level likely acting as resistance or support—warranting a fresh assessment upon arrival.
In the near term, the SPX is likely to trade within a 5,100–5,700 range.