SPX bullishI am now bullish in near term. For those following me, I have updated HILO EMA squeeze band with an option to plot more lines as seen this chart. I see a swing high of 5770, although a bit cautious about the month end. Market is tired of Trump tantrums and more focused on earnings which have been great so far. For near term month or two I would be looking for bye the dip
SPCUSD trade ideas
Into the Close, some thoughts about the price actionA difficult and choppy day again. We did rally from the low to 5525 as I thought, but it's possible this was a squeeze to take shorts out before the bigger move down into the rest of the week. it's difficult to say with big earnings about to hit. The daily candle is forming a hanging man, and it could be a clue. We'll see how it looks tomorrow.
SPX500 (4H) LONG POSITIONGreeting there traders this is my idea on SP500 and it is Long.
We can clearly see a recovery from the “Support Area” (yellow zone), after a wave formation (probably a completed Elliott Wave correction).
You are currently in a very impulsive uptrend.
Momentum looks strong, with no major retracements — meaning that buyers would currently be in a dominating position.
Key Levels
Support Level (red): 5.019 – 5.091
This is the “ultima ratio” zone where the price made a strong rebound.
Softer Support: 5.276 – 5.282 (where you are now)
This is the zone of possible correction, as you marked.
Resistance/Target: 6.150 – 6.156
If the current trend holds and there is no major retracement below 5,250, it is very likely that we will test the 6,000–6,150 level in the coming days.
The price is currently in a “blast-off” phase — if volume remains strong, you can hit the TP as early as late April or early May.
I predict that we have started an uptrend towards a new ATH. I believe that the market will start to "fly" already on Monday or Tuesday. Possible catalysts: Trump strikes a deal with China, announces a pause in the trade war, or Powell responds with an emergency rate cut.
My goal is mid $6,000 to low $7,000 by July 4th (maybe sooner). After that I expect a 60-70% drop.
What goes up must come downSPY is massively overbought since Jan 24. My new indicator WaveTrend Multi Time Frame Table illustrates this.
Trumps actions start initiated what had to happen anyway. Currently the SPY is correcting from the previous 3 weeks of bull run.
After that the 1D, 1W and hourly charts should be green again (oversold zone) and we could see another bullish sentiment.
Just my 2 cents. Do your own research.
Bullish rise off pullback support?S&P500 has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,478.47
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 5,349.10
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level;
Take profit: 5,776.02
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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S&P 500 unlikely to return to up trendThe implemented tariff policy of the Trump Administration is expected to hit its fallout on the market by Q3 2025, consequentially the earnings of companies. If the SPX is to have a chance to return to the uptrend this year, it has to confirm two days closings above the turning point before summer.
The inverse effect of tariffs is that it soars with the price: any attempt to adapt on the net price point levers the total price; it's not a fixed number. This leverage applies also to inflation, resulting in consumer sentiment to sour. There is a natural time gap between the implementation of tariffs and the return of industry expected by the Trump Administration - the tariffs have been falling like a chainsaw on international business and supply relations, but rebuilding factories requires time and investment. In this gap the required investments will add pressure to companies' earnings...
These news and outlook brings out funds managers to sell America 'bigly' and to re-evaluate their diversification, bringing down stock prices eventually. The tariff-rebuild-gap is expected to set in by summer, but it is unclear when it would end: so far it is uncertain how much of the industry would return to America to produce and circumvent tariffs. A few big companies announced to build manufactories in the USA, but mostly they plan for only one factory and it still requires building. The Midterm Elections could set the Republican super-majority in both houses to fall and, by extension, have Congress retake the right to set and lift tariffs from the White House. However, it is unclear whether they would use their retaken privilege, as one truth about tariffs, like about all taxes: they're easily introduced, but can take generations to go away again.
All this forms a painstaking 2H scenario for 2025, its rock-bottom too early to call.
SPX: Good push at EOD 4/30, but…Possible H&S? Hear me outGood push at end of day on 4/30 at close.
Zooming out, it’s starting look like it’s forming a H&S. I’m starting to see a lot of people flipping bearish as well. But, also near close today, volume was not promising, declining at the close.
I swung short-term puts on SPY, I like SPX puts for a day trade due to this formation but this H&S can possibly out within the end of week with more data and uncertainty or the following week.
I’m short at the touch of the light red line: 5655.79 to the downside.
Gaps below 5354.76, 5206.44
Would say by EOW to next week, if we pull back, may form/complete the right shoulder.
Do your DD!
Let me know your thoughts! #NFA
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis – 29 April 2025
- S&P 500 index broke key resistance level 5500.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5700.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the key resistance level 5500.00 (former support from March, which also stopped A-wave of the active ABC correction B from the start of April).
The breakout of the resistance level 5500.00 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 5700.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C.
SPX500: Short Setup Brewing!SPX500 is currently consolidating above the key volume node at 5,480.85, showing resilience after a sharp pullback last week. Price action remains inside a rising channel, but the steeper trendline has been broken, hinting at possible loss of momentum.
🔹 Key Observations:
Price is testing the lower trendline support—a breakdown here could trigger a move toward 5,400.
Volume profile shows heavy interest at 5,480, with a potential volume gap below that could accelerate downside.
VWAP support is intact for now, supporting a neutral-to-bullish bias.
A breakout above 5,530 would confirm bullish continuation and likely test 5,560+.
📈 Bias: Neutral to Bullish
📉 Breakdown Trigger: Below 5,480
📊 Probability Estimates:
Bullish breakout: 55%
Bearish breakdown: 45%
Watching closely for resolution at this inflection point. Patience until direction confirms.
💬 What’s your bias—bulls or bears?
#SPX500 #ES1 #S&P500 #VolumeProfile #TechnicalAnalysis #FOMC #VWAP #TrendlineBreak
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to 38.2% - 50% Fibo lvl 5489.Colleagues, I have reviewed the waves a bit and I believe that when the strong psychological level of 6000 is reached, a reaction and correction in wave “2” is possible.
I propose to consider this movement as a strong five-wave movement. Wave “1” will be over soon.
I consider the 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels of 5489 to be the main target of the correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis – 12 May 2025
- S&P 500 index broke resistance area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5930.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance area between the resistance levels 5800.00 (top of wave 4 from March), 5700.00 (which stopped wave 1 at the start of May) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
The breakout of this resistance area is aligned with the short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from April.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5930.00, former support from January and February.
S&P 500 – an ascending channel on Daily Daily Chart (D1) :
I'm observing an ascending channel, with a potential manipulation near its lower boundary.
If that happens, we may see the formation of a bullish pivot point.
Hourly Chart (H1) :
I've marked the boundaries of the daily channel on H1.
There’s an unfilled gap below, and price might revisit that area.
I’m watching the 5690.7 level closely — it could act as a key zone for potential long setups.
📈 If 5690.7 holds , possible long targets include:
🎯 A break above the local high at 5848
🎯 The upper boundary of the channel, which closely aligns with the anticipated bullish pivot point target
📉 If price fails to hold above 5690.7 and breaks lower,
I’ll start considering short scenarios and will update this idea accordingly.
Continuation of bullish trendSeems that the trade deal between China and USA is behaving well with the general market, in my opinion the market will continue up for a while, however we need to be aware that at some point will need to breath and at least pull back to one of the EMAs, plus since it is now touching the top of the BB it will most likely pull-back at some point in the future, that doesn't mean it will reverse, but instead, give us another opportunity to enter the markets again, in line with the general market and at a good position to capitalize from the market movement.
S&P500 Index Intraday Trend Analysis for May 12, 2025The S&P 500 Index is displaying bullish indications for the day. Key support levels are observed at 5789 and 5755, while resistance is expected around 5860 and 5930.
Please note, this is solely my personal view. Traders are advised to conduct their own technical analysis and ensure proper risk management before making any trading decisions.
SPX – Triple Breakout: Inverse H&S + EMA 200 + Ichimoku CloudSPX has confirmed a powerful bullish breakout with three confluences:
1. Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout
2. 200 EMA breakout
3. Ichimoku Cloud breakout
This alignment of structure, trend, and momentum indicators suggests a potential continuation move toward 6150 in the coming weeks.
Trade View:
Entry: On breakout retest or continuation
Target: 6150
Stop Loss: Below neckline or EMA200 depending on risk tolerance
Bias: Strongly bullish
Weekly SPX Has A Bottom W Pattern Prompting More Upside!Hey Traders and Followers! SPX is going up!
Sounds crazy despite the tariff news floating around but charts never lie.
Here's what we got on the weekly SPX/USD; We have a bottoming W pattern. What's that mean? We going higher people.
5690.7 is the beakline area, price above invites bulls to a party.
Target for this long is at 6198.9 area. Support sits at 5579.4 for this one.
I'm letting you know about this party so up to you if you want to have a good time. See you all there with bells on and cash for all $ for those who show up.
Best of luck in all your trades $
Cheers!
Turbulence at Sea: A New Phase in International TradeBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
The growing trade tension between China and the United States has once again shaken the foundations of global commerce. In April, container traffic between the two powers fell by 30% to 40%, according to data from Maersk (CPH:MAERSKb), one of the world’s largest logistics operators. This decline comes amid a new wave of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which China could counter with similar measures. Although the conflict has reignited fears of a global trade slowdown, some shipping companies have maintained their annual forecasts thanks to one unexpected factor: the chaos in the Red Sea.
Global Trade Under Question
Maersk, despite the collapse in transpacific routes, has not revised down its profit outlook for 2025. The reason: the logistical disruption in the Red Sea, caused by geopolitical tensions, has driven up maritime freight rates, partially offsetting the drop in volume.
Still, optimism is cautious. The company now expects global trade growth to range between -1% and +4%, a margin that reflects the current high level of uncertainty. Asia-Europe routes are also being affected, and many companies are already seeking alternative logistics — more expensive but safer.
Impact on Other Global Companies
The blow is not exclusive to Maersk. FedEx, DHL, and COSCO Shipping have also reported disruptions in their international operations. Manufacturers such as Apple, Tesla, and Boeing are facing delays and rising costs in their supply chains, particularly in key components coming from Asia.
Industrial giants like Caterpillar and Honeywell, heavily reliant on exports, have seen their margins shrink and growth forecasts revised downward. The retail sector — with giants such as Nike and Walmart — is also feeling the pressure: rising logistics costs, lower momentum in international sales, and difficulties in inventory management.
Market Reaction: S&P 500 and Nasdaq
The effects have quickly rippled through financial markets. The S&P 500, which includes major U.S. companies, has come under pressure from geopolitical and trade uncertainty. The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the declines, while interest in more defensive sectors is growing.
The Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech companies with global supply chains, is also showing signs of fatigue. Apple and Nvidia have corrected in recent sessions, driven by concerns over potential retaliation from Beijing and delays in critical components. Semiconductor companies like Qualcomm and AMD could also suffer if China restricts access to critical raw materials or imposes new trade barriers.
Technical Analysis: S&P 500
The current chart formation reflects the drop that followed the imposition of tariffs, followed by a partial recovery to the 5,670-point area — slightly above the current point of control. The index is currently at the upper end of a range in which it has fluctuated several times. The RSI is slightly overbought, and the next upward target could be a return to all-time highs if it breaks the 5,900-point barrier. Moving averages appear to be converging toward a possible bullish directional shift.
Outlook
As 2025 progresses, investors are facing an extremely uncertain environment. The possibility of an escalation in the trade war, combined with ongoing logistical disruptions, could cap global growth and squeeze corporate earnings. All of this comes at a time when GDP growth in the U.S. and China was already showing signs of slowing: the former affected by persistent inflation, and the latter by weak domestic demand and a 21% drop in exports to the U.S.
In short, international trade stands at a crossroads. If the situation does not improve in the coming months, we may witness a major restructuring of global supply chains and a shift of capital toward safer assets.
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