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SPX trade ideas

Spring Loaded Wedge? Let the setup come to you! $SPXLowkey top watch for the next few weeks! It was a chop zone last week = consolidation? Now zooming out, it’s looking like a loaded wedge/flag forming. A lot of bearish sentiment, tariff talks and unknown lately but this is looking mighty interesting of a formation. Volume also slowly declining, wondering if we’re setting up for once a decision/mutual agreement is made with US, China + others involved. Green ray is my ENTRY: 5372.44 *Also eyeing 5329.66* - For potential upside. We have a few gams above to also fill and can magnet upwards if we get news, volume etc. Looking for the banger* here - of course, things are still brewing. Note this is the HOURLY timeframe. Wait for the setup to come! Let me know your thoughts! Appreciate any insight. Do your DD! #NFA AMEX:SPY SP:SPX
SP:SPXLong
by sweatytrigger
4
Approaching the 200-Week SMA – AgainHistory doesn’t repeat… but it sure does rhyme. If all you did was buy the S&P 500 every time it touched the 200-week moving average, you would’ve: ✔️ Bought 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022… 💰 Absolutely cleaned house. Now in 2025, we’re approaching the same level again. That SMA has acted like a trampoline for the last 15 years — will it bounce once more? 🧠 Food for thought as fear builds and the market cools. Let’s see if the buyers step in where they always have. 👀
SP:SPXLong
by SmartSignalss
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance retest US stock futures are pointing higher after Monday's sharp selloff. Despite the bounce, safe-haven demand remains strong — gold hit a new record, and the yen strengthened past 140/USD for the first time since September. Donald Trump called for immediate Fed rate cuts, warning that the economy could slow without action. He argued inflation is not a concern, citing falling energy and food prices, and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again. The US reported “significant progress” on a trade deal with India after talks between VP JD Vance and PM Modi. The roadmap aims to ease trade tensions and potentially shield India from future US tariffs. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5509 Resistance Level 2: 5660 Resistance Level 3: 5787 Support Level 1: 5110 Support Level 2: 4947 Support Level 3: 4816 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Noise, S&P Scenario, Gold BubbleThank you to the tradingview community for engaging and supporting my content. After another rough start to the week, we have a bit of a crossroads ahead for the S&P 1) We revisit the April 7 lows and poke lower with bear trap opportunities 2) We hold Monday April 21 lows and grind back up to gap fill and revisit 5400-5500 resistance 3) We go nowhere with a lot of intraday volatility and noise (between the April 7 low and the April 9 high) The markets are on high alert DXY Gold Bitcoin US Bonds vs Treasuries (yields rising) Trump is more vocal about threatening the FED or firing Powell and the concern is truly unprecedented Trade War pause is still ongoing, China is being vocal as well to make sure countries don't simply line up to support the US. For all of this to calm down, US and China have to play nice. China is likely able to hold the line longer than the US in the near-term Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
3
$SPX / $SP500 – China Deal or Global Meltdown? The Risk/Reward 📉 The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / VANTAGE:SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads. After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome: Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China Estimated probability: 20% Potential upside: +10% Expected value: +2% Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China Estimated probability: 80% Potential downside: -50% Expected value: -40% 📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility ( TVC:VIX ) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.
VANTAGE:SP500
by SmartSignalss
SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either. Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet. They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now. Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence. So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high. If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario. Grega
VANTAGE:SP500
by ew-forecast
S&P 500 Tests Key Zone Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has reached the 5,700–5,800 zone after a nearly 18% rally in just half a month. This zone could determine whether the rally marks the end of the bearish trend or if more pain lies ahead for the stock market. The 200-day simple moving average, several previous horizontal support levels, and the most recent top all converge in this area. The upward move has been driven by correction dynamics, optimism around potential trade deals, signs of de-escalation with China, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. This week, the FOMC may either temper those optimistic rate cut expectations or hint at a more dovish tone. In either case, some profit-taking may occur ahead of the meeting, and the 5,700–5,800 zone is a strong candidate for that to happen.
SP:SPXShort
by ftdsystem
SPX: Short term bearish to touch gap? And fill? Looking like there is apparently “no tariff talks” per China. We’re still in such an uptrend, but looking for a short-term pull back on negative news. Also we have FOMC this week. Does Powell give what Trump and the people want, a rate cut? I’m looking for 5678.33 to - TP1: 5672.46 - TP2: 5635.06 Possible touch or fill gap of below 5603.21? Let me know what you think. Do your DD, not FA. Let’s see what the week brings.
SP:SPXShort
by sweatytrigger
Week ahead analysis May 4th to 11th**Week Ahead Analysis (May 5 – May 11, 2025)** ### **Baseline: Market Expectations** - **Tariffs & Fed Policy:** Trump's tariff announcement has heightened concerns about economic slowing, prompting bond markets to price in up to four Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. - **Trade Talks & Sentiment Shift:** Reports suggest China may restart trade negotiations, boosting risk sentiment. However, China insists the U.S. must first remove all unilateral tariffs, adding uncertainty to the discussions. - **Market Reaction:** Risk assets—equities and high-beta currencies like AUD, NZD, and CAD—are climbing as volatility cools. Meanwhile, safe havens such as JPY, CHF, and gold are facing selling pressure, though overall risk sentiment remains cautious. ### **Potential Surprise Scenarios** - **Trade Deal Secured:** A deal would likely send equities higher, strengthen risk-sensitive currencies, and drive safe havens lower. - **No Deal Reached:** In contrast, safe havens could gain while risk assets retreat. ### **Big Picture Outlook** Regardless of the immediate outcome, the market's medium-term trajectory hinges on the broader effects of trade policy. If tariffs persist, economic uncertainty may sustain the Fed’s dovish stance. A successful trade deal, however, could restore confidence, shifting expectations back toward growth stabili
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Midas_Macro
Chart Called It S&P 500 Bottom on April 7 Confirmed the March 27On March 27, 2025, I published an analysis identifying the potential for a major bottom forming in the S&P 500 near 4,790.57: Original chart and analysis At that time, the index was consolidating just above key support, with growing downside pressure ahead of major economic reports. Despite broad caution in the market, the technical setup signaled a potential reversal. The first rising channel developed in March, helping to support the rebound but it later broke to the downside, leading to another test of support. That move did not invalidate the broader structure. On April 7, the S&P 500 made its cycle low at 4,835.04, just shy of the target. Since then, a second rising channel has formed, with higher lows and momentum supported by volume. The price is now approaching major resistance at 5,822. If it gets rejected, a pullback toward the rising trendline or the 5,438 area is likely. As long as price holds above the April 7 low and respects trendline support, the bullish structure remains intact. A confirmed breakdown below that support would increase the risk of a deeper retracement. This progression underscores the importance of trusting price structure over sentiment. The market followed the chart. The bottom was April 7. The call was made March 27. The chart led the move.
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
April 25 crypto and stock market results📈 April portfolio recap: $2,293 in profit despite market decline Each month, I publish performance reports to stay accountable and track the real results of my trading strategies across both stock and crypto markets. In this post, I’ll break down my April 2025 performance — where my portfolio grew, even as the broader market declined. 🏛️ Stock market results: $1,144 profit Despite a red month for the broader market, my equity portfolio performed well: • Monthly return: just above 1% • S&P 500 performance: -44 basis points (−0.44%) Outperforming the S&P 500 in a down month is never easy, but my holdings managed to stay in the green. 🪙 Crypto portfolio: $1,139 recovery My crypto allocation also showed strength in April, largely thanks to my liquidity pool strategy, which is finally beginning to yield real results. • Monthly crypto return: just over 6% • By comparison, simply holding BTC would have yielded around 14% While my strategy didn’t beat Bitcoin in raw percentage terms, it offered recovery after previous drawdowns. 📊 Portfolio Overview • Cumulative profit: $10,000+ • Average portfolio return since inception: ~11.5% I began investing in 2020, and have steadily built a portfolio that balances growth with risk control. My approach involves both active management (via options and selective equities) and passive yield strategies in DeFi. 🔍 What’s Next? I’ll continue to post live trade updates, monthly recaps, and strategy breakdowns. If you’re interested in real portfolio transparency and real-time insights — follow along.
SP:SPXLong
by grigori-ilkevich
S&P500 INTRADAY ahead of NFP, resistance at 5670The bulls are firmly in control as the S&P 500 heads for its ninth straight daily gain—the longest winning streak since 2004. Optimism is fuelled by: Expectations of Fed rate cuts due to soft economic data Hopes for renewed US-China trade talks, easing geopolitical risk Strong risk appetite, with Bitcoin nearing $100,000 and equity momentum building Key Risk Today – US Jobs Report: April Nonfarm Payrolls expected at +138K, down from March’s strong beat This is the first major labor data since new US tariffs, and could shift market expectations for Fed policy Conclusion for S&P 500 Traders: Momentum is bullish, but today’s NFP report is a key risk event. A weaker-than-expected jobs number could reinforce rate cut bets and extend the rally. A surprise beat may trigger profit-taking. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5670 Resistance Level 2: 5740 Resistance Level 3: 5820 Support Level 1: 5440 Support Level 2: 5385 Support Level 3: 5316 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5670Tech Surge Lifts Markets: Strong earnings from Microsoft (+7.8%) and Meta (+6.2%) are driving early market optimism. Both beat revenue expectations, easing concerns about trade war impacts. → S&P 500 futures up over 1%. Trade Deal Hopes: Sentiment is boosted by signs that President Trump may soon announce initial trade agreements, reducing geopolitical risk. Bank of Japan Dovish Shift: The BoJ cut its growth forecast and delayed its inflation target, signaling caution. Yen fell as much as 1.2%. US-Ukraine Investment Deal: The US secured privileged access to Ukraine’s natural resources, potentially helping ease tensions as part of broader efforts to end the war. Earnings Watch: Before Open: Mastercard, Estee Lauder, Eli Lilly, Moderna, McDonald’s After Close: Apple, Amazon, Amgen, Airbnb, Reddit Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5670 Resistance Level 2: 5740 Resistance Level 3: 5820 Support Level 1: 5440 Support Level 2: 5385 Support Level 3: 5316 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX Play-by-Play: From Trap to Trend and Back AgainJust price, structure, and volume — tracked in real time. 🧠 Chart Breakdown: ✅ Early Short Trap / Failed Breakdown — Sellers tried to press lower early, but price held key levels and reversed. That shift became the foundation for the entire move that followed. ✅ Breakout Long Trigger — After reclaiming structure, price drove into new highs with strong follow-through. Volume confirmed the breakout. ⛔ Top Rejection — Price pushed into resistance but couldn’t hold. Momentum faded, candles hesitated, and sellers stepped in. ✅ Fib-Based Bounce — After the pullback, price responded cleanly off fib-based support. The bounce was sharp, and volume backed it. ✅ Steady Uptrend Structure — Price moved in an orderly fashion. Small pullbacks held structure, and volume stayed supportive — a textbook controlled climb. ⛔ Range Resistance — Price returned to a previously rejected zone. Wicks and hesitation reappeared. 👀 Current Breakout Watch — Price is testing that resistance again. A reclaim with strength signals continuation. Another fade? Let it go. Always happy to be helpful.
SP:SPX
by tradingqueen1980