Bearish WXY Model Forming at Key Resistance – Caution at the TopSP:SPX just crossed the Monthly High, but the structure resembles a bearish WXY correction, and we’re now approaching critical levels.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
5481–5572: Weekly FVG resistance + 61.8% Fib Extension – potential top of the rally.
5293: The 50% retracement from the Apr 20 low – a break below confirms the bearish WXY and opens the door to new lows.
📌 Scenario Outlook:
✅ Bullish case: Room for upside toward 5685–5750, but only if we close above 5572 Weekly to invalidate the FVG.
⚠️ Bearish case: Current price action aligns with divergence (as seen with DJI) + WXY model. Caution advised — rallies may be fading.
💬 Chart attached shows the WXY structure forming with key divergences.
SPXM trade ideas
Unsustainable Market Trends I'm overall a bear but I think we'll probably make a new high. I've explained previously how a new high does not annul the bear thesis since there are various spike out patterns. Let's now talk about the unsustainable nature of what we're currently seeing.
First things first - trendlines going up at angles of over 70 degrees is not good! 35 - 45 degrees, good. That's quite sustainable. It can keep doing that. 70+, not good. It can not keep doing that.
I hate to speak in absolutes, but we can be fairly sure markets can not rise at this angle indefinitely without something really bad happening. Were this to happen, it would have to be a result of devaluation of the currency and although stock markets would be higher, everyone would be hurting. Especially average people.
A highly optimistic forecast of how this can end well would be after making gains markets go into a prolonged period of contraction. There's no more straight up price action but there's also nothing terrible to the downside. I can't really think of any examples of this ever happening. I guess the closest would be the big range before the 80s/90s breakout (But that was not like this into the high).
The most common outcome of markets going up at angles of over 70 degrees is they come down at angles of over 70 degrees!
I feel the moves of 2021 and 2023 have made the market exceptionally more risky. Markets looked extended in 2018 - 2019, but what felt like mania in 2018 was dwarfed in the following years with full years of rallies at angles above what is sustainable. It'd be highly uncommon for these moves to resolve without spiking out the low of where they started.
The tendency of parabolic moves to resolve themselves by trading under where the move started becomes increasingly worrying as we move further from that level. It's around 2,200 in SPX. Even if it came from the current high this would forecast a move worse than 2008. Were it to come from a bit higher, this would start to forecast a move on the scale of depression crashes (At least 80% and lasting at least 10 yrs without a new high).
What I am trying to say here is, if markets keep going up at angles of over 70 (And SPX really isn't far off 100 right now), something very bad is likely to happen. And it's looking likely SPX may do this. Markets may break and make a blow-off without further major retracements and this style of blow-off can be 20 - 25% above the last high.
This would give us estimates for a blow-off ending 6,000 area in SPX and just under 20,000 area in Nasdaq. Both of these would be drawing down at least 70% to break the low of where the excessive angle of buying started. While this is nothing earthshattering in terms of charting norms (What goes up comes down), this would be significant in the real world.
If this big spike out is coming, I think we're seeing the grand final act of the bull market. It will be the best it has ever been and it will be the best we're going to see it in a significant amount of time.
If markets continue higher at the same or steeper angles than the recent climbs (Especially if there's no big pullbacks) I think we'll have seen every single major warning signal there was at the top of rallies that would turn into multiple decade bears.
SPX 500 turns lower ahead of busy weekAhead of a busy week, the S&P 500 has found resistance at a key area of resistance near 5550. The Index had rallied in the previous three sessions, but with trade and economic uncertainty still at the forefront, investors are not rushing to chase this rally - and rightly so. May be they will still buy the dip as we head deeper into the week, though, given Trump's change of tone and optimism surrounding trade deals. For me the key support area to watch is around 5,300, but other areas of support including 5840 and 5400.
Beyond trade negotiations and trade concerns, a flood of traditional economic data is set to be released this week. Key highlights include PMI surveys from China and the US, first-quarter US GDP, the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Thursday, and the critical US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. On top of all that, it’s the biggest week of earnings season, featuring results from Microsoft and Meta after Wednesday’s close, and from Apple and Amazon—four members of the so-called “Magnificent Seven”—reporting on Thursday.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
April 28, 2025 - Broken Supply Chains, and the DC CircusHello everyone, it’s April 28, 2025. The week ahead promises to be spectacular (or a complete disaster) depending on which way the wind blows out of Washington. So far, the futures are down about 0.6% this morning, as everyone’s trying to cut risk ahead of a week crammed with Big Tech earnings ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:META ), a mountain of macro data (PCE, GDP, ISM, jobs), and of course, the never-ending Trump tariff soap opera.
On the US politics front, Trump stayed uncharacteristically quiet over the weekend, no new bombshells. But whispers about “talks” with China surfaced, without any real confirmation. Meanwhile, several countries are supposedly rushing to negotiate tariff deals with the US. Expect headlines (and chaos) throughout the week.
Supply chains are starting to crack. Container traffic from China to the US has plunged 60%, and if deals aren’t made by mid-May, we could be staring down empty shelves and layoffs in transport and retail sectors. Think “Black Friday” without anything to buy.
Meanwhile, the drama at the Fed continues. Kevin Warsh, still salty about not replacing Powell, attacked the Fed’s “media circus” style, blaming it for post-Covid inflation. Warsh wants the Fed to go old-school: shut up, protect the dollar, and stop playing superhero. No forecasts, no endless press conferences. Just cigars and silence.
On the macro side, this week’s economic data could turn into a horror show: weak jobs numbers, soft GDP, slowing PCE, all raising the probability of recession. If that happens, expect markets to start begging the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later.
Assets snapshot:
• BLACKBULL:WTI : $63.36
• OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,307
• INDEX:BTCUSD : $94,000
In short: expect maximum volatility, endless surprises from DC, and a market that could spin on a dime. Stay sharp, stay skeptical, and brace for anything.
U.S. Bulls Take Charge: S&P 500 Set to Break OutHello,
📊 S&P 500 Market Outlook – Pro-Bullish Perspective
🔥 Market Recap: The S&P 500 recently saw a significant dip, marking a 1-year low at 4805.92, largely attributed to the shockwaves caused by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. This move sent markets into a tailspin, creating heightened volatility levels not seen since the early pandemic days.
However, savvy traders recognized opportunity amidst the panic and entered strategic buy zones around those lows. Since then, the index has managed to stabilize above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum building from the ground up.
🧭 Current Key Technical Levels to Watch:
1W Pivot Point (PP): ✅ Holding above 5224.13
1D Pivot Point (PP): ⚠️ Testing resistance at 5297.05
1M Strong Support/Resistance: ⛔ Acting as resistance at 5329.31
🚀 Bullish Confirmation Pathway:
To fully confirm a bottom-up bullish reversal, we’re looking for:
✅ Sustained close above the 1D PP @ 5297.05
✅ Break and hold above the 1M Resistance @ 5329.31
✅ Momentum toward the 1Y PP @ 5550.97
If these levels are conquered with conviction, it opens the door for an extended upside move toward 5878.58, aligning with a broader bullish sentiment.
🛑 Cautionary Downside Scenario:
Although currently less likely, a failure to maintain support above the 1W PP @ 5224.13 could reopen downside risk in the short term. We remain watchful of that level as a bull-bear pivot.
🌐 Macro Overview – Tariff Shock & Earnings Spotlight:
Trump’s abrupt tariff move has reshuffled the global economic deck, and investors are still processing its implications.
The S&P 500 is currently down ~14% from its February highs, but showing resilience.
Earnings season is now center stage, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, and Boeing under the microscope.
⚠️ Volatility Index (VIX) is down from post-tariff highs (~60) to ~30, still elevated from the long-term median of 17.6, signaling cautious optimism.
💬 CEO Sentiment Matters:
As JJ Kinahan from IG North America noted:
“The view of CEOs going forward has never been more important.”
With traditional guidance uncertain, investors are leaning on transparent, scenario-based outlooks like United Airlines’ “dual roadmap” approach.
🔋 Magnificent Seven on Watch:
Alphabet: -20% YTD
Tesla: -40% YTD
These leaders are key sentiment barometers. If they bounce, the broader market is likely to follow.
🏛️ Fed & Trump Tensions:
Trump recently stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough,” pushing for rate cuts.
Powell, however, remains cautious, citing the need for more economic data before acting.
✍️ Final Note – A Cooling Tariff War?
💬 According to Trump’s latest statement, the tone around tariffs is beginning to cool, hinting at possible de-escalation.
This development adds further bullish tailwinds to the broader market outlook.
✅ Summary:
We are leaning bullish here with the base-building process in motion. Key levels are aligning, volatility is easing, and clarity from corporate earnings could be the catalyst to propel markets upward.
Watch for a clean breakout above 5329 — that’s where the real confirmation begins. Eyes on the prize: 5878.58 👀📈
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
S&P 500 Rockets Past Resistance-Is 5,728 Next?The S&P 500 (SPX) formed a double bottom pattern on Monday, April 7, and Wednesday, April 9, on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a potential reversal from recent lows. Later on April 9, the index broke above resistance, confirming short-term bullish momentum. On April 24, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period moving average, reinforcing the strength of the emerging uptrend. By April 25, a 4-hour candle closed above the 200-period moving average, providing further confirmation of a strong bullish trend. That same day, the SPX broke through the significant resistance level at 5,501, with a candle closing above this level, which supports the view of continued upward movement. Based on my technical setup, the next potential target is projected at 5,728.
S&P 500 tests key resistance as trade uncertainty continuesTrump continues to say positive things - just now suggesting that they are very close to a deal with Japan on tariffs. But it is China where the bulk of uncertainty lies. He has been quite upbeat this week, but China continues to push back against the optimism.
European indices extended their gains, buoyed by the previous day’s upbeat mood, while US futures have given up their earlier gains. The shift likely linked to an interesting interview US President Donald Trump gave to Time Magazine.
While Trump claimed Chinese President Xi had personally rung him — and insisted that negotiations with Beijing were progressing — it was his remark that he’d consider “50% tariffs a year from now” to be a success that seemed to spook investors. Unsurprisingly, that struck a more hawkish tone, nudging some traders to lock in profits.
Earlier in the session, risk appetite had been given a lift after reports surfaced that China was weighing tariff exemptions for select US imports. This, combined with upbeat comments from Trump the day before and a solid set of earnings from Alphabet, helped extend the rally in equities.
Gold, meanwhile, gave back some ground — dipping below the $3,300 mark — as safe haven demand cooled in response to the renewed optimism. Yet, beneath the surface, caution remains palpable. Trump’s off-the-cuff comment about 50% tariffs a year from now served as a stark reminder that nothing is set in stone, and that the trade saga is far from over.
As such, while some of the worst risk-off flows may be behind us, it’s far too soon to declare an end to the market turmoil. A period of consolidation — both in equities and gold — may now be on the cards.
Meanwhile the S&P 500 has entered a key area of resistance between 5490 to 5550 area. A bearish trend line also comes into play. A clean break should be positive from a short-term point of view, while a sharp rejection is what the bears would be looking for.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Potential bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,480.90
1st Support: 5,099.50
1st Resistance: 5,778.60
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500 Index End of Day Trend AnalysisS&P 500 Index Outlook:
The index may experience bearish momentum starting around April 25th or 28th, with key support at 5160. If this level holds and bearish confirmation does not emerge, the bullish trend is expected to continue toward the target of 6109.
Traders should wait for a confirmed short signal before considering bearish positions. Otherwise, the ongoing bullish momentum is likely to persist. The MastersCycle indicator has signaled a buy, with a suggested stop-loss at 5100.
Disclaimer: This is a personal market view. Traders are encouraged to rely on their own technical analysis and always trade with an appropriate stop-loss.
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510Stocks are pulling back after Wednesday’s rally, pressured by renewed trade tensions. China stated that no deal talks are underway, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed scepticism over resolving the trade dispute. US futures slipped, the dollar weakened, and gold rose as investors sought safety.
Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood warned that US equities, Treasuries, and the dollar may face further downside, noting the market has likely peaked. Deutsche Bank also trimmed its S&P 500 target, citing the negative impact of ongoing tariffs on US companies.
It’s a packed earnings day: PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, and American Airlines report before the open, while Alphabet and Intel are set to release results after the close.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5510
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5790
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4950
Support Level 3: 4815
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
What Is the Advance-Decline (A/D) Line, and How Can You Use ItWhat Is the Advance-Decline (A/D) Line, and How Can You Use It in Trading?
The Advance-Decline (A/D) Line is a widely used market breadth indicator that provides insights into the strength of trends by tracking advancing and declining stocks. Popular among traders analysing indices like the NASDAQ, it helps identify broad participation or hidden divergences. This article explores how this indicator works and its role in effective market analysis.
What Is the Advance-Decline Line?
The Advance-Decline (A/D) line, also known as the Advance-Decline Index, is a popular market breadth indicator used to gauge the overall health of a market's movement. Instead of focusing solely on price changes in an index, it analyses how many stocks are participating in the market's rise or fall. This makes it particularly useful for traders looking to understand whether a trend is supported by widespread participation or driven by just a handful of stocks.
The indicator can be set up based on stocks on different exchanges. For example, a NYSE Advance-Decline line provides insights into NYSE-listed stocks. However, it can be applied to any index or exchange, resulting in the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line or a line based on stocks listed in the UK, Australia, Europe, or Japan.
At its core, the A/D line is a cumulative measure of the net advances of stocks on a given day. The calculation is as follows:
1. Count the number of advancing stocks (those that closed higher than their previous close).
2. Count the number of declining stocks (those that closed lower than their previous close).
3. Subtract the number of declining stocks from the advancing stocks to get the net advance.
4. Add this net advance to the previous day’s A/D line value.
Formally, the Advance-Decline line formula is:
Net Advances = Advancing Stocks − Declining Stocks
Current A/D Line Value = Previous A/D Line Value + Net Advances
For example, if 500 stocks advanced and 300 declined on a given day, the net advance would be +200. If yesterday’s A/D Line value was 10,000, today’s value would be 10,200. Over time, these daily values form a line that tracks the cumulative net advances.
The indicator provides insights into sentiment. A rising line indicates more advancing stocks than declining ones, while a falling line suggests the opposite. Traders often use this data to determine whether a price trend in an index reflects broad strength or is being carried by a few heavyweights.
Understanding Market Breadth
Market breadth measures the extent to which individual assets are contributing to a market's overall movement, providing a clearer picture of the strength or weakness behind trends. Rather than relying solely on an index's price performance, breadth gives traders insights into how widespread participation is within a rally or decline. This information is crucial for understanding whether market moves are broad-based or concentrated in a few influential assets.
A market with a strong breadth typically sees most stocks or assets moving in the same direction as the overall trend. For example, during a rally, broad participation—where a large percentage of assets are advancing—signals a robust and healthy trend. Conversely, weak breadth occurs when only a small group of assets drives the movement, potentially indicating fragility in the trend. This is especially important in large indices where a few heavily weighted assets can mask underlying weaknesses.
How Traders Use the A/D Line
The A/D Line is more than just a market breadth indicator—it’s a practical tool traders use to gain insight into the strength and sustainability of trends. By analysing how the indicator behaves in relation to price movements, traders can uncover potential hidden opportunities and spot potential risks. Let’s consider how the Advance-Decline line behaves on a price chart.
Identifying Trend Strength
One of the A/D Line’s key uses is evaluating the strength of a market move by examining overall participation. When both the A/D Line and an index rise together, it suggests widespread buying activity, with most stocks contributing to the rally. Similarly, if both the index and the A/D Line decline, it often reflects broad-based selling, indicating that weakness is widespread across the market rather than concentrated in a few assets.
Spotting Divergences
Divergences between the A/D line and price are closely watched by traders. For instance, if an index continues to rise but the A/D line starts declining, it could signal that the trend is losing momentum. Conversely, when it begins rising ahead of a price recovery, it may suggest underlying strength before it becomes apparent in price action.
Complementing Other Indicators
Traders often pair the A/D line with other tools to refine their analysis. For example, combining it with moving averages or oscillators like RSI can help confirm signals or highlight discrepancies. A rising A/D line alongside RSI rising above 50 might reinforce the possibility of a price rise.
Strengths of the A/D Line
The A/D line is a widely respected tool for understanding market dynamics, offering insights that price-based analysis alone can’t provide. Its ability to measure participation across a broad range makes it especially valuable for traders looking to assess sentiment and trend reliability. Let’s explore some of its key strengths.
Broad Market Perspective
The A/D line captures the performance of all advancing and declining stocks within an index, offering a comprehensive view of how much support a trend has. Instead of focusing solely on a handful of large caps that often dominate indices, the indicator reveals whether the majority are moving in the same direction. This helps traders gauge the true strength of a rally or decline.
Early Warnings of Weakness or Strength
Divergences between the A/D line and the price can act as an early signal of potential changes in momentum. When the A/D Line deviates from the overall trend, it can highlight areas where market participation is inconsistent. This allows traders to assess whether a trend is gaining or losing support across a broad range of assets, offering clues about potential shifts before they fully materialise in price action.
Applicability Across Markets
Another strength is its versatility. The A/D line can be applied to indices, sectors, or even individual markets, making it useful across various trading strategies. Whether monitoring a broad index like the S&P 500 or a specific sector, the indicator can be adapted to provide valuable insights.
Limitations of the A/D Line
While the A/D line is a useful tool for analysing breadth, it isn’t without its limitations. Traders need to understand its drawbacks to use it effectively and avoid potential misinterpretations. Here are some of the key challenges to consider.
Ignores Stock Weighting
One major limitation is that the A/D index gives equal weight to every stock, regardless of size or market capitalisation. In indices like the S&P 500, where a small number of large-cap stocks often drive performance, this can create a disconnect. For example, a large-cap stock’s strong performance might lift an index while the indicator shows weakness due to low-caps underperforming.
Vulnerability to Noise
The index can produce misleading signals in certain conditions, such as during periods of low trading volume or heightened volatility. Market anomalies, such as large fluctuations in a small number of stocks, can skew the indicator and make it less reliable. This can be especially problematic in thinly traded assets or at times of high speculation.
Not a Standalone Indicator
The A/D line is combined with other tools. On its own, it doesn’t account for factors like momentum, valuation, or sentiment, which can provide critical context. Traders relying solely on it may miss out on key details or overemphasise its signals.
Comparing the A/D Line with Other Market Breadth Indicators
The A/D Line is a powerful tool, but it’s not the only market breadth indicator traders use. By understanding how it compares to other indicators, traders can select the one that suits their analysis needs or combine them for a more comprehensive view.
A/D Line vs Advance-Decline Ratio
The A/D Ratio measures the proportion of advancing to declining stocks. While the A/D line provides a cumulative value over time, the ratio offers a snapshot of market breadth for a single trading day. The A/D Ratio is often better for identifying short-term overbought or oversold conditions, whereas the A/D line excels at tracking long-term trends.
A/D Line vs McClellan Oscillator
The McClellan Oscillator uses the same advancing and declining stock data but applies exponential moving averages to calculate its value. This approach makes the McClellan Oscillator more sensitive to recent market changes, allowing it to highlight turning points more quickly than the A/D line. However, the A/D line’s simplicity and cumulative nature make it more straightforward to interpret for broader trend analysis.
A/D Line vs Percentage of Stocks Above Moving Averages
This indicator tracks the percentage of stocks trading above specific moving averages, such as the 50-day or 200-day. While the A/D line focuses on daily advances and declines, the moving average approach highlights whether stocks are maintaining longer-term momentum. The A/D line provides a broader perspective on participation, whereas this indicator zeros in on sustained trends.
The Bottom Line
The Advance-Decline line is a valuable tool for traders seeking deeper insights into market trends. By analysing market breadth, it helps identify potential opportunities and risks beyond price movements alone.
FAQ
What Is the Meaning of Advance-Decline?
Advance-decline refers to the difference between the number of advancing stocks (those that closed higher) and declining stocks (those that closed lower) on a specific trading day. It’s commonly used in market breadth indicators like the NYSE Advance-Decline line to measure the overall strength or weakness of the market.
How to Find Advance-Decline Ratio?
The Advance-Decline ratio compares advancing stocks to declining stocks in an index. It is calculated by dividing the number of advancing stocks by the number of declining stocks.
How to Use an Advance-Decline Line Indicator?
The A/D line indicator tracks the cumulative difference between advancing and declining stocks. Traders analyse its movement alongside price trends to assess market participation. For example, divergence between the A/D line and an index price direction can signal potential changes in momentum.
What Is the Advance-Decline Indicator Strategy?
Traders use the Advance-Decline indicator to analyse market breadth, identify divergences, and confirm trends. For example, a rising A/D line with an index suggests broad participation, while divergence may signal weakening trends.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The SPX On Track To A New All-Time High In 2025 (6,958— Soon!)Do not let anybody distract you, do not allow yourself to be deceived. Know that the market is very resilient and this has been true for the longest time ever. The catastrophe that everybody is always expecting and is always due is never true. Ok, there was a correction, but that's it, from now on the market grows. That's just how it works.
Very, very strong bull markets, and the bear markets weak and short.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) looks great right now and nothing can surpass the wisdom that comes from a chart. A chart cannot lie nor can mislead you in any way.
The charts have pure raw data, you can make your own interpretation of this data but there are no mistakes.
Here the chart shows a very strong higher low. The 0.5 Fib. retracement level was tested and it holds. Now, saying a "new All-Time High" might be speculation, but saying that prices will rise is simply how technical analysis works.
A low first pierced 0.5 and challenged 0.618 fib. The candle closed above and full green, the highest volume since 2010 and that is a clear signal that the correction reached its end.
The SPX is bullish now of course.
The next week we get a red week and this led to the present day, a higher low. A higher low is bullish and notice, the 0.618 level is no longer relevant. The correction that happened was really strong, there is absolutely no need for more.
So a strong correction developed and what comes next?
Prepare for a major rise, a new impulsive bullish wave.
The minimum target starts at 5,665. This is the resistance where the drop got started, this level needs to be tested based on TA. Depending on how this level is handled, we can extract how the market will continue to behave.
» I will make a prediction, the SPX will hit a new All-Time High in the coming months.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
S&P500 Index Intraday Trend Analysis for April 23, 2025Market Timing tool signals Bearish Trend for the day and the Sell Signal got confirmed with Stop Loss @ 5471. Trailing Stop Loss for running sell is at 5394. First Target for the bearish trend is at 5318 and if the market moves down further, it may take support at 5173.
It's my view. Traders are suggested to follow technical analysis for trade entries with proper risk management rules.
S&P 500 | SPX500USD: Bulls Find Support — But Is It Enough?SPX500USD 12H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🔍
OVERALL TREND
📈 UPTREND (Tentative) — Market structure appears to be attempting a reversal from a recent pivot low. However, the macro trend remains under pressure unless price clears the key resistance range above 5,950.
📉RESISTANCE
🔴 6,152.5000 — PIVOT HIGH | Dynamic Resistance Level
🔴 6,086.2943 — SELL ORDER II
🔴 5,952.1652 — SELL ORDER I
📊ENTRIES & TARGETS
🎯 5,884.4400 — EXIT BUY | TP 4
🎯 5,640.5683 — BUY ORDER | TP 3
🎯 5,482.3500 — BUY ORDER | TP 2 | Mid-Pivot
🎯 5,254.5432 — BUY ORDER | TP 1
📈SUPPORT
🟢 5,021.6218 — BUY ORDER
🟢 4,879.2150 — BUY ORDER II
🟢 4,812.2000 — PIVOT LOW | Dynamic Support Level
📊OSCILLATOR SUMMARY
🧭 RSI (14): 51.98 — Neutral
📉 MACD Level: -41.34 — Buy Bias Forming
🚀 Momentum (10): -36.21 — Positive Divergence Developing
📊 ADX (14): 21.08 — Early Trend Formation
📉 Awesome Oscillator: -87.21 — Bearish but Flattening
🧮MOVING AVERAGE SUMMARY
✅ 10/20/30 EMA & SMA — All Showing Buy Signals
❌ 50/100/200 EMA & SMA — Still Bearish, Suggesting Long-Term Pressure
📊 VWMA (20): 5,289.90 — Bullish Price Reaction Above VWMA
📏 Ichimoku Base Line: 5,158.19 — Neutral, Needs Further Validation
🤓STRUCTURAL NOTES
Current price is battling between 5,300–5,400 resistance range — a break and close above 5,482 could trigger further upside
Significant bullish reversal candle formed near the last pivot low at 4,812
Volume profile suggests re-accumulation; price attempting to reclaim 5,300 structure
Momentum indicators show signs of shifting bullish, but not yet in strong confirmation territory
TRADE OUTLOOK 🔎
📈 Bullish bias above 5,254 with targets at 5,482 / 5,640 / 5,884
📉 Bearish pressure reactivates if price rejects 5,482 and closes below 5,021
👀 Monitor ADX for trend confirmation — under 25 = caution; above 25 = trend validation
🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Reversal Play):
— Entry: 5,254.54
— Targets: 5,482.35 / 5,640.56 / 5,884.44
— SL: Below 5,021.62
HIGH-RISK SCALP (Resistance Fade):
— Sell Order near 5,952.16 or 6,086.29
— Targets: 5,640 / 5,482
— SL: Above 6,152.50
“Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
[04/22] 𝟬𝗗𝗧𝗘 𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄Contextual Thinking:
Yesterday’s sharp drop was fully bought back — for now. We're currently at a call resistance level, so the down move may continue today.
Gameplay:
Below 5205, I lean towards being cautious or outright bearish. A hypothetical selloff could intensify below 5170 (Gamma Flip level).
I'm definitely not targeting below 5100, but based on the current options pricing, the market seems to be pricing in 5100 — yesterday’s low — as the most pessimistic scenario.
Caution:
Given the significant intraday swings over the past 24 hours (both up and down), the market is likely to close somewhere between the high and low of the day due to ongoing uncertainty. This is typical in such volatile conditions, and I see this as the most probable outcome.
So unless strong buying pressure or good news emerges, I expect the market to close between 5100 and 5205.
However, if we break above 5205, we could witness a positive gamma squeeze , with 5250 being the first upside target.
Approaching the 200-Week SMA – AgainHistory doesn’t repeat… but it sure does rhyme.
If all you did was buy the S&P 500 every time it touched the 200-week moving average, you would’ve: ✔️ Bought 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022… 💰 Absolutely cleaned house.
Now in 2025, we’re approaching the same level again. That SMA has acted like a trampoline for the last 15 years — will it bounce once more?
🧠 Food for thought as fear builds and the market cools.
Let’s see if the buyers step in where they always have. 👀
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance retest US stock futures are pointing higher after Monday's sharp selloff. Despite the bounce, safe-haven demand remains strong — gold hit a new record, and the yen strengthened past 140/USD for the first time since September.
Donald Trump called for immediate Fed rate cuts, warning that the economy could slow without action. He argued inflation is not a concern, citing falling energy and food prices, and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again.
The US reported “significant progress” on a trade deal with India after talks between VP JD Vance and PM Modi. The roadmap aims to ease trade tensions and potentially shield India from future US tariffs.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
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