SPX 25 Apr 2025Is US stocks really crashing? Everyone is saying so.....
Using wave analysis, it still lack the 5th wave, so do not be surprise if another new high come
SPXM trade ideas
The Bear Is Dead. Long Live the Bull.From Fakeout to Full Send - SPX Flips Bullish
You could almost hear the financial media pop champagne today.
“Markets Surge Amid Easing Trade Tensions” they yelled.
“Global confidence returns!” they assured.
And sure, that’s a cute story.
But for us, Wednesday’s bear push now looks like a feint. A setup. A spring.
By Friday, the bull had not only taken the ball - it ran with it.
That V-shaped reversal pattern on the daily chart? It’s live. And it’s loud.
Technically, it’s now pointing to a projected upside of 6106.
That’s not just some random number. That’s the prior range high zone coming back into focus.
And in case you needed a reminder…
The bear is dead. Long live the bull. (until it isn't)
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SPX Market View - Bullish Flip Confirmed
Wednesday gave us a classic tease.
Bearish energy. A flicker of downside. But it fizzled fast.
Then came Thursday - and with it, a clean sweep into Friday.
The V-shaped daily reversal triggered.
Price pushes off the lows
Sentiment flipped
And a new upside target emerged at 6106
It’s not just technical fluff. This level marks a structural return to the previous range highs - a natural magnet for bullish continuation.
Meanwhile, I’ve done a bit of chart housekeeping myself.
After two months of letting bias sneak in and lines and notes multiply like rabbits, I’ve hit the reset button.
🧹 Clean charts. Clean mind. Just the essentials.
The direction has changed - and I’m treating it with fresh eyes.
One line I am keeping?
5400. It’s been the pivot point for weeks. A battle-tested zone. It now serves as the bull’s first major checkpoint.
If price respects that level on any dip, it’s game on.
And if we breach it? That’s when the doubt returns.
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💡Expert Insights: Common Trading Mistakes & How to Avoid Them
MISTAKE: Letting cluttered charts and old bias cloud current decisions.
FIX:
Regularly clean your charts — strip them down to what matters.
Use setups that speak for themselves (like the V-shape).
Don’t bring yesterday’s opinion into today’s trade.
A new direction demands a new perspective. And as price shifts, so must your lens.
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🗞️Rumour Has It…
BREAKING:
Powell Declares Bull Market, Blames Moon Phase for Midweek Bear Tease
Financial news outlets were caught scrambling when the SPX reversed higher through thursday despite Wednesday’s doom-and-gloom.
“Clearly the moon was in retrograde,” Powell reportedly muttered, while clutching a Fibonacci ruler.
In other news, China's trade delegation released a statement saying, “We’re not sure what’s happening either.”
(This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.)
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🤯Fun Fact - The Original “Clean Chart” Addict Was… Jesse Livermore
Before indicators, algos, and triple-screen madness, Jesse Livermore – the OG speculator – was famous for trading from price and price alone.
In fact, he refused to use charts with clutter.
He would manually draw his price levels, log his trades by hand, and sometimes go days without placing a trade – waiting for the market to tip its hand.
His trading edge?
Patience.
Price action.
And a clean, unobstructed read.
One of his favourite tricks?
He’d mentally mark key inflection levels (like your 5400) and wait until price either exploded past or rejected hard before acting.
So next time you reset your chart – you’re not just decluttering…
You’re channelling Livermore.
SPX with 2 Zweig breadth thrust indicatorsMost argue that Zweig breadth thrust was triggered on 4/24. 2 indicators for interested people to check it out.
SPX on threshold of bullish breakout? I am cautiously bullishNations may be lining up to kiss Trump's a??? but SPX has come to kiss a confluence of trendline resistance as well as POC
Also markets we approaching month end. You only need to look at the past month ends and see what happens to the price, yes they tend to reverse very often if not always, specially if the prices are below 200 ema as it is now.
I would be watching how the market behaves next week. Soft economic data are pointing to weaker economy and the underlying problem of highly leveraged Hedge Funds remain. I wonder if they begin to deleverage some more at this level.
Any future decline would be a good entry point
Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 2 of 4):Gamma Effects# Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 2 of 4)
## Option Convexity and Gamma Effects
### Gamma – The Convexity of Options
Gamma measures how much the Delta of an option changes in response to movements in the underlying asset’s price. Mathematically, it is the second derivative of the option’s value with respect to the price of the underlying. In simpler terms, Gamma quantifies the curvature—or convexity—of the option’s price sensitivity.
- Positive Gamma: Accelerating Delta as the underlying moves.
- Negative Gamma: Decelerating Delta as the underlying moves.
This convexity becomes especially important for traders managing exposure. A directional trader might seek:
- Positive Gamma near anticipated breakouts to increase exposure during favorable moves.
- Negative Gamma in areas where they want to taper exposure, such as in covered call setups (where the short call reduces gains as price rises).
---
## Gamma and Delta Hedging
Traders who Delta hedge their option positions using the underlying (or a Delta-1 instrument) face the reality of nonlinearity: Delta changes as the market moves, and Gamma determines how fast.
In practice, this means hedgers must adjust frequently to maintain a neutral Delta—Gamma tells them how often and how aggressively.
---
## Hedging a Position with Positive Gamma
When hedging and holding positive Gamma:
- If the underlying price rises → Delta increases → Sell the underlying.
- If the underlying price falls → Delta decreases → Buy the underlying.
This results in countercyclical trading, i.e., trading against the market trend.
**Advantages:**
- Potentially dampens volatility.
- Allows for limit order execution (e.g., sell at offer when price rises), capturing bid-offer spreads.
- Automated or semi-automated setups possible.
---
## Hedging a Position with Negative Gamma
With hedging and holding negative Gamma, the adjustments are procyclical:
- Price rises → Delta drops → Buy more underlying.
- Price falls → Delta rises → Sell more underlying.
**This means:**
- You're chasing the market, increasing exposure in the direction of the move.
- You likely cross the spread to ensure execution (lifting the offer or hitting the bid).
- This behavior tends to amplify volatility and incurs transaction costs.
---
## Summary: Gamma's Impact on Hedging
- Long Gamma → Hedge countercyclically, dampen market movements, and potentially profit from spreads.
- Short Gamma → Hedge pro-cyclically, amplify market movements, and pay the spread.
This distinction underscores a critical point: hedging Delta is not just about neutralizing exposure—it’s about managing how that exposure evolves, which is precisely what Gamma represents.
---
## Can You Hedge Delta Without Gamma Risk?
**In theory?** Yes.
**In practice?** Not really.
Hedging an option (a nonlinear instrument) with the underlying (a linear one) means you’re using a linear approximation of a curved payoff structure. This hedge is only locally accurate—it must be rebalanced frequently to remain effective.
While it’s theoretically possible to hedge both Delta and Gamma using other options, this introduces complexity:
- Other Greeks (like Theta and Vega) enter the equation.
- Option hedges are often illiquid, expensive, or difficult to scale.
For most traders, hedging Delta with the underlying remains the simplest, most liquid, and most cost-effective approach—despite the need for Gamma-based adjustments.
---
## Gamma Trading & Gamma Scalping
Even in non-directional strategies, Gamma has value.
Gamma scalping involves actively trading the underlying around an options position to exploit short-term price swings:
- You buy low and sell high as the underlying fluctuates,
- Profiting from volatility, not direction.
This is a powerful technique for monetizing Gamma, particularly when implied volatility is elevated relative to realized moves.
---
## Coming Up Next:
📘 Part 3: Gamma Scalping – Monetizing Convexity Through Active Hedging
by parsifaltrading
S&P 500 Ready for another leg lower ?S&P recovering back to an area where is flipped back and forth after the drop yesterday ( Ellipse on chart ).
Negative China headlines in the background from earlier this morning , but US traders choosing to ignore them early on .
There's good volume and resistance up here ( blue line)- and in the absence of any positive news on tariffs it looks like it should move lower this afternoon .
Sell at current levels 5370
Stop at 5410
Target 5295
E
Narrative Noise vs. System ClarityApparently, the market was “uncertain” today.
Somewhere between Trump retracting his Powell shade, the Fed playing PR dodgeball, and tariffs being simultaneously on and off the table… headlines were doing what they do best: explaining yesterday with confidence.
But the chart?
The chart spoke first.
We came into the session ready for bullish confirmation.
Instead, we got a clean rejection of 5400, with early signs of downside pressure before lunch.
This is why we follow price, not PR.
Today’s action didn’t invalidate the bull bias completely, but it sure made the case that bears aren’t done just yet.
Let’s unpack what we saw and where we’re headed next.
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Additional images mentioned can be seen on my main blog
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SPX Market Outlook - Structure Rejected, Futures Rolling
While the headlines continue to spin post-news confusion, the price action remains our guide.
Yesterday, we came into the session prepared for a bullish continuation, but 5400 acted as a firm barrier once again.
The daily chart showed a clear rejection, and despite the bullish lean in the morning, the structure leaned bearish by session’s end.
Now, as I write this before the cash open, overnight futures are pushing lower, indicating potential follow-through.
That doesn’t confirm anything just yet - but it does tilt the bias.
Here’s what I’m watching:
5400 = still key resistance
5300 = GEX flip level - will reassess bearish view if we break and hold below it
5000 remains the target for the Wolfe pattern continuation
Upper Bollinger tag is in - another technical sign of short-term exhaustion
No bear pulse bar yet, but a clean V-shaped reversal is visible on the chart
ADD remains near bull extreme - offering more bear potential than bull in the short term
Bias remains bearish below 5300, and I’ll reassess to add in below that level.
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GEX Analysis Update
5500 - 5400 - 5350 all look interesitng levels
5300 is the current flip point
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Expert Insights: React to Price, Not PR
❌ Mistaking news for a setup
Narratives are seductive. They come with headlines, urgency, and lots of confident pundits.
✅ Stick to the chart
Price told us today’s story long before CNBC tried to.
5400 rejection. No pulse bar. Bullish exhaustion on ADD.
That's not confusion. That's confirmation — if you're paying attention.
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Rumour Has It…
Trump was overheard saying, “Maybe Powell’s alright. Maybe.” Dow gained 0.3% and then shrugged.
5400 is reportedly suing for emotional damages after being rejected for the third time this month.
A Wolfe Wave ghost briefly appeared on the chart, waved, and vanished near 5300.
(This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.)
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Fun Fact - News Always Arrives After Price
Markets don’t wait for clarity.
They move first, then the headlines scramble to explain why.
The pattern is timeless:
Price shifts.
Smart traders react.
Media catches up.
Retail says, “Oh, THAT’S why.”
Yesterday was no exception.
So if the news says “flat and uncertain,” but the chart shows a failed breakout, don’t wait for a CNBC blessing to press the button.
The system already said what it needed to say.
US500 Day Trade Setup: Liquidity Pools, Gaps & What’s Next?The US500 (S&P 500) 4-hour chart recently showed a gap up, followed by a strong move into the previous range highs. This price action likely triggered buy stops and tapped into buy-side liquidity above the prior swing highs. After this liquidity sweep, the market has pulled back and is now consolidating just above a visible gap, which sits slightly below the current price level.
From a Wyckoff perspective, this resembles an upthrust after distribution, where price runs stops above resistance before reversing. The current pullback suggests a potential test of the gap area, which often acts as a magnet for price, especially if there’s unmitigated liquidity left behind.
Using ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, the recent move above the range high can be seen as a raid on buy-side liquidity, followed by a retracement. The gap below current price represents an imbalance, and ICT traders often look for price to revisit such inefficiencies before resuming the trend.
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Backdrop
Recent data shows the S&P 500 has experienced a sharp correction in April, with a monthly drop of about 5.75% from the previous month, but it remains up 6.8% year-over-year (YCharts). The market has been volatile, with sentiment shifting due to macroeconomic concerns, including renewed trade tensions (notably new tariffs), a mixed earnings season, and questions about the Federal Reserve’s next moves (IG).
Wall Street analysts have recently revised their year-end targets lower, citing increased risks from tariffs and slowing earnings growth (Yahoo Finance). The VIX is elevated (28.45), and the put/call ratio is above 1, indicating heightened hedging and caution among market participants (YCharts).
🏦 Wyckoff & ICT Concepts in Play
🏗️ Wyckoff: The recent rally into the highs and subsequent pullback fits the upthrust after distribution narrative. If the market fails to reclaim the highs, a move back into the gap (potentially as a sign of weakness) is likely.
💧 ICT: The gap below current price is a clear area of interest. If price trades down to fill this gap, watch for a reaction—either a bounce (if demand steps in) or a continuation lower if the gap fails to hold.
💡 Day Trade Idea (Not Intra-day)
Scenario: If price trades down to fill the gap just below the current level (around 5,300–5,320), monitor for a bullish reaction (such as a strong daily close, a bullish order block, or a clear rejection wick).
Trade Plan:
🕵️♂️ Wait for price to fill the gap and show a bullish daily signal.
🎯 Enter a day trade long at the next day’s open if confirmation is present (e.g., a bullish daily candle close or a break above the previous day’s high).
🛑 Place a stop loss just below the gap or the most recent swing low.
📈 Target the previous high near 5,400 for a day trade, or consider scaling out if momentum continues.
Alternative: If price fails to hold the gap and closes below it on the daily chart, consider a day trade short the following day, targeting the next liquidity pool below (e.g., 5,200).
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should do your own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
3:30 pm updateMarket is still biased to the upside, but the fact that the rejected again at around 5500 is bearish for the time being. A gap fill tomorrow seems likely, we'll see how the overnight goes.
Tariff Talks Flip the Tape - 5400 Under FireWolfe Gasping, Bulls Grinning
Well, this is exactly what every bear didn’t want to wake up to…
Overnight, markets surged higher after Trump hinted at easing tariffs and gave Powell a thumbs-up. It’s like watching your opponent trip mid-game, then suddenly recover, score a hat trick, and throw you a smug grin.
That line in the sand we’ve been talking about?
5400.
It’s been the invalidation level for weeks – and now it’s being bulldozed like it never mattered.
This isn’t about guessing the news.
It’s about having a clear point where your bias says, “Okay, I’m out.”
The Wolfe was working… until it wasn’t.
And that’s okay.
Because while the bear swing has been fantastic, we’re now seeing what might be the higher low reversal we flagged a few weeks ago - just without the drop to 5000 first.
Frustrating? A little.
Unexpected? Not really.
Tradable? Absolutely.
Let’s look at how this flips our setup for today.
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SPX Market View - Bull Bias Activated (Finally)
Well, that escalated quickly.
With the overnight futures surge and 5400 now breached, the Wolfe Wave is officially off the board. Our long-standing bear bias has been invalidated — and we flip bullish for the first time in weeks.
This is the power of having a system.
You don’t need to guess. You just need a line in the sand. Ours was 5400. Price crossed it. The bias flips.
Here’s what I’m watching now:
5400 is now the breakout zone – if it holds at the cash open, bulls have full control
Higher low structure playing out across the daily chart
GEX positioning will be key — I’ll be watching for hedging demand shifts to confirm upside stability
This doesn’t mean we go all-in bull mode with blind optimism.
It means we assess new setups in line with the price action, and if they confirm – we act.
Bull’s got the ball (for now).
Let’s see if he fumbles or scores.
GEX Analysis Update
5300 acting as the updated flip point overnight
SPX prices potentially gaping 100+ points assuming the futures hold their gains.
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Expert Insights: Know Your Invalidation
❌ Clinging to a bias too long
It’s tempting to hold on to the story. “Wolfe’s still in play,” you tell yourself… even after price says otherwise.
✅ Know your invalidation level
5400 was the line. It’s been clear for weeks. Once price punched through it — the plan said, “That’s it. Game over for the bear.”
No ego. No hoping. No rewriting the script mid-trade.
Your system needs boundaries.
Otherwise, it’s not a system — it’s a story.
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Rumour Has It…
Trump’s tweet this morning: “Tariffs are dumb. Powell’s alright. Markets UP!” Dow gained 200 in 10 seconds.
CNBC now referring to 5400 as “The Enlightenment Zone.”
The Wolfe Wave was last seen howling into the wind and fading into the distance.
(This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.)
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Fun Fact - The 5400 Flip
Here’s a kicker for you…
5400 has flipped bias more times than any other round number level in the SPX this year.
It's the psychological equivalent of a market mood swing.
And every time price hits it, traders start reaching for different narratives:
“It’s resistance.”
“Now it’s support.”
“No wait, it’s just a number.”
“Actually, it’s Fibonacci-magnet-retrograde!”
Sometimes it’s just this:
5400 = The Line Where We Flip.
Meme of the Day - “Wolfe’s Out. Bull’s In.”
IMAGES ON MAIN BLOG
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
S&P500 Index Intraday Trend Analysis for April 22, 2025Intraday Trend is Bullish with Resistance1 @ 5410 and Resistance2 @ 5507. Market Timing tool is bullish for the day and other indicators are in the green. Overall the S&P500 Index intraday trend is Bullish.
This is my view but not a recommendation to buy or sell. Traders are advised to do their own technical study before entering into the trade with proper risk management.
[D] SPX - 22.4.2025 (Scenario 1 & 2)To complement the earlier publish idea, I'm hereby adding another scenario as I'd feel dissatisfied with several candles being displaced. Both tell the same story as I'm fundamentally remain bearish over a prolonged period of time. I expect the things to get moving as soon as mid May for a major move. This year's summer time might hit different.
[D] SPX - 22.4.2024I felt like I wanted to post something positive amid the madness, although I remain bearish on SPX and USD since the beginning of 2024 - as my past predictions suggest. So far, the greatest businessman and dealmaker, Donald Trump has successfully outperformed on the time line most of the expectations that I deemed possible in a real-world setting. If that continues to hold true, it is possible that hereby - somewhat optimistic - prediction will again lag behind the reality on the scale of days to a couple of weeks. What I was hoping for, was a much welcomed break during the summer and a full-blown downfall into a recession afterwards. I'm much afraid, things I expected in 2026 might arrive considerably sooner.
S&P 500: This Pattern Could EmergeThey say recession is imminent...
This is how it can emerge on the S&P 500 chart
in shape of Head & Shoulders
Its visual speculation, so let's leave it here and return in 2026-2032
to check if it played out
S&P 500 Pullback Nearing End? Hammer + Elliott Wave Say Rebound!The S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is one of the most important indexes in the financial market these days , with the cryptocurrency market and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) having a strong correlation with this index .
After Donald Trump suspended tariffs on 90 countries (except China) , the S&P 500 Index started to rise and seems to have managed to break through the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,094) and is pulling back to this zone .
One of the signs of a reversa l of the S&P 500 Index can be the formation of the Hammer Candlestick Pattern , which announces the end of the pullback .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing a corrective wave that could be in the form of a main wave 4 ( it is correcting both in time and price ).
I expect the S&P 500 Index to resume its upward trend in the coming hours, if nothing special is released , and to reach the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) and Yearly Pivot Point . If this happens, today's Bitcoin analysis could also be correct .
Note: In the worst case, if the S&P 500 Index touches $5,050, we should expect a further decline in the S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin.
Do you think the S&P 500 Index will return to an upward trend, or is this increase temporary?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Déjà Vu: 2025 Tariffs Mirror 2018 Trade War PlaybookThe economic strategy behind the new wave of tariffs bears an unmistakable resemblance to the 2018–2020 U.S.–China trade conflict. That’s no coincidence. Peter Navarro, the architect of the 2018 tariff playbook under President Trump, has once again stepped into a key role shaping trade policy in Trump’s second term.
In 2018, the Trump administration launched a phased escalation of tariffs, starting with targeted duties on Chinese imports and expanding into broader measures that disrupted global supply chains. By Q4 2018, the S&P 500 had fallen nearly 20%, while tech-heavy names like NVIDIA plunged over 50% amid valuation compression, supply chain fears, and geopolitical stress.
Peter Navarro’s re-emergence signals that this isn’t just about political posturing. Known for his hardline stance on China and focus on economic nationalism, Navarro treats tariffs not as negotiation tools but as long-term policy. In 2018, that posture drove escalation until the market forced a pause.
Now in 2025, we’re watching the same script unfold almost beat for beat:
1. Start with China
2. Expand globally
3. Soften the global rhetoric to isolate China
4. Target key sectors (semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, energy)
5. Start the media misdirection to work behind the scenes with China
6. Set up a “deal” under market pressure
In 2025, the market again entered bear territory but staged a brief recovery after a pause in reciprocal tariffs. As of April 21, 2025, the index sits 16% off its February high and still in a downtrend.
Now, looking at the charts, here where things begin to take shape. Let’s start with the 2018 chart (figure 1). Like previously mentioned, back in 2018, the S&P 500 dropped over 20% between September and December, finding the bottom at a key support from 20 months prior (Q1 2017). The first gray box represents 10 weeks from the 2018 high. The 10 weeks is important because we are currently 10 weeks off the 2025 high, so this first gray box shows historically where we are today relative to the 2018 prices. The second gray box represents the 3 remaining weeks of drawdown, which was roughly 10%.
Figure 1
Now looking at the 2025 chart (figure 2), we have the same 10-week gray box marked up, and the additional 3-week, 10% drawdown, gray box that follows. Coincidentally, or not, the bottom of the second gray box aligns almost perfectly with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 swing low to the 2025 high (figure 3). Even more interesting, that support level also ties back to the September 2023 high—roughly 20 months prior. Sound familiar?
Figure 2
Figure 3
I will be watching that 4500 level for SPX over the next few weeks as Trump and Navarro are preparing to roll out more sector-specific tariffs in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell is facing renewed pressure, including calls to step down—again, nearly identical to the rhetoric from late 2018.
Currently, markets are pricing in just a 10% chance of a rate cut, according to Kalshi. But if the market continues to slide, Navarro and Trump may dial up pressure on the Fed to act. A rate cut in early May could mark the market bottom—just like Powell’s dovish pivot did in early 2019.
If the 2018 blueprint holds, we’re in the middle innings. Tariffs are broadening, the market is reacting, and the Fed is being boxed in. The coming weeks may test the 0.618 Fib level on the S&P 500. If Powell pivots and rhetoric softens, we may find a low—and history will have rhymed, if not outright repeated. If Powell stays strong, then Trump and Navarro may publicly pull back and take negotiations behind closed doors.
I don’t see this is being just being coincidental. This seems to be following a very familiar playbook.
here is my Idea I believe the price is still going down. Everything has a 2 way which depends on the probability. Good luck and thank you
Noise, S&P Scenario, Gold BubbleThank you to the tradingview community for engaging and supporting my content.
After another rough start to the week, we have a bit of a crossroads ahead for the S&P
1) We revisit the April 7 lows and poke lower with bear trap opportunities
2) We hold Monday April 21 lows and grind back up to gap fill and revisit 5400-5500 resistance
3) We go nowhere with a lot of intraday volatility and noise (between the April 7 low and the April 9 high)
The markets are on high alert
DXY
Gold
Bitcoin
US Bonds vs Treasuries (yields rising)
Trump is more vocal about threatening the FED or firing Powell and the concern is truly unprecedented
Trade War pause is still ongoing, China is being vocal as well to make sure countries don't simply line up to support the US. For all of this to calm down, US and China have to play nice. China is likely able to hold the line longer than the US in the near-term
Thanks for watching!!!
Global Supply Chains being Undone could be the cause of a (IV)I have been discussing the potential for a Super-Cycle wave (III) top in the US markets for the last couple years. To experience a wave (IV) of SUPERCYCLE PREPORTION, would be a consolidation of price action back to the 1929 stock market crash. The byproduct of this type of price action would be a decline of 50% or more (likely more) in the value of global stock markets. This type of asset price deflation would make anyone who watches the markets be inquisitive as to what would or even COULD cause such an event.
Would the dismantling of global supply chains, that have been in place since the early 1990’s, be the culprit?
I am starting to think the answer to that question is yes. This is not an indictment of the policy, but more an acknowledgement of the disruption and the possible aftermath.
The obvious concern is how do businesses plan? I would venture a guess business leaders will be challenged, and many may not survive. The cost equation becomes so skewed…how does one make money without passing the costs on to the consumer? That means higher inflation.
If this is the case, it’s possible digital assets become more of a safe haven which would be counter intuitive to hard asset value. This would mean that we will have endure a cycle of higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher unemployment, coupled with lower economic growth. I cannot say this is how the forecasted price action is justified in the future. What I can say is the resulting price action will look very similar to the below.
S&P500 - The Correction Is Over Now!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of days, we have been seeing a quite harsh stock market "crash" with an overall correction of about -20%. However, as we are speaking the S&P500 is already retesting a major confluence of support and if we see bullish confirmation, this drop might be over soon.
Levels to watch: $4.900
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P500: Bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders.The S&P500 index is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.973, MACD = -126.240, ADX = 31.007) but long term appears to have bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. In fact, the Head made a low on the Double Bottom and the bearish outlook is currently due to the Right Shoulder formation. A crossing over the dashed LH trendline and even better the 4H MA200, would aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,280).
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