SPY to pulback to 544Looking for SPY to pullback to 544.
544 is a very strong support, also the 38.2% fib. If it breaks this level, then it expect a rapid acceleration to 530 and 515.
SPY trade ideas
$SPY Its time according to my chart.. Lower high is the trigger I posted two charts for reference to the current situation. With a historic rally right into resistance and a fractal analog that matches, I have no choice but to remain bearish. These are my studies. Sometimes Impatience leads to things like Impulsive Entries and Exits, Revenge Trading, and at times, even Blown Accounts. Times like those should be followed by a regroup and a reset.
The 9 Count Sell Signal Triggered with a Reset is on Technical Inidators for a move lower. I do believe we are going to consolidate for several days but nothing further than the second week of May. Today Bulls got extremely bullish and still were not able to hold the highs into the close. The test of the 200 day SMA was rejected and several days near these leveles whether above or below, would prove the downside move more possible. The monthly on SPX is my biggest indicator, personally. If it follows the pattern I'm following then after a test of the 10WMA, we will roll back over on the next 10 day candle. The market ran through a death cross without stopping, which if anyone were to study for several minutes, they would be able to see any first attempt at a death cross to the upsde is almost immediately met with a selloff back to the lows of the breakout move. Good luck everybody.
Elliott Wave top on SPY’s monthly chartTechnical Analysis:
Wave Structure (Elliott Wave)
• Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom.
• Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven.
• Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure.
• Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out).
Bearish Signals:
• Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior.
• Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion.
• (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows:
• Wave A targeting ~$420–440.
• Wave B dead cat bounce.
• Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement).
Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
• 0.382 = ~$450
• 0.5 = ~$390
• 0.618 = ~$340
These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing.
Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative:
• Sticky inflation
• Rising interest payments on U.S. debt
• Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime)
• Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
SPY: Bear Market Rally Near Completion?Wavervanir DSS | April 30, 2025
SPY is approaching a critical reversal zone at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (~$563.33), following a sharp bounce from the March lows at $481.80. Price is now testing overhead supply from a prior breakdown, and a rejection here aligns with both technical exhaustion and deteriorating macro conditions.
🔍 Technical Breakdown
Resistance Zone: $563.33 (Fib 0.786) – Strong potential reversal point.
Bearish Targets:
$500 (Fib 0.786 from Jan–Mar leg)
$481.80 (prior low)
$431.45 (Fib 1.382 extension)
Structure: ABC corrective wave likely playing out with lower highs forming.
Volume: Momentum on the rally is weakening—bearish divergence setting in.
🧠 Macro Alignment
Sticky Inflation and high real yields persist.
Fed expected to hold rates steady in May (no pivot).
Earnings and forward guidance remain mixed, with cracks showing in consumer credit and regional banks.
Soft landing narrative is fading unless CPI or labor data surprises to the downside.
📊 Probability Estimate
Bearish Reversal (to $431.45): 65%
Bullish Continuation (to $598.51): 25%
Sideways Chop (532–563 range): 10%
⏳ Watch for confirmation below $547 to validate the reversal.
📉 If 563 holds, downside may accelerate into summer.
🧠 WaverVanir DSS remains net short while volatility remains structurally elevated.
💬 What’s your play? Bull trap or breakout?
#SPY #S&P500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #TradingView #Fibonacci #BearMarket #RecessionRisk
The Daily 200 MA Is The KeyRegarding how price action will play out over these next couple months, there's 3 likely scenarios, and it involves how price will interaction with the daily 200 MA:
BLUE: Price makes a convincing break above the daily 200 MA, retests it, and then surges onward, continuing the long-term bullish trend.
PURPLE: Price falsely breaks above the daily 200 MA and tests the 600 psychological level, rejects it, and falls back below the daily 200 MA and retests it, thus creating a H&S pattern and confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.
RED: Price rejects the daily 200 MA, and continues the bearish trend, ultimately forming a new low.
$SPY Short Swing, vwap+supply+resistanceBackground. Easy confluence trade. We had the largest and fastest rally in stock history from 2022 to now. Everyone who loaded up at $380-430 is ready to take some profits. After the tariff announcements, we sold off hard through a bunch of levels and trendlines down to the bottom of the longer term uptrend.
Current situation. We have retraced back up to the first major supply area, where everyone who bought the dip back in march went long. They've been underwater and are ready to sell for scratch. This will drive the price back down. Maybe the end of a long term uptrend. Maybe just leg 2 of the tariff drop, back down to the trendline. I can't know that.
Delta. If you look at the volume footprint chart, there has been a huge negative delta this whole rally. Prices are going up but the larger players are selling into it. Essentially, the last 2 weeks have been driven up by main street, while wall street unloads. Once there are enough bagholders, the floor can fall out. Here's the weekly delta.
Trading Approach. This is a good point to initiate the start of a long term short position. Like, buying puts 1-2 years out with a $450 target, a gap that's never been filled. I think it's also a good swing entry but with closer targets. On the more pessimistic attitude, after the tariffs, the world started the process of dethroning America as leader of the free world. There's a lot of gravity pulling down to $250 and if the world fully turns on the US, that's where we're heading.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-1 : Bottom-104Today's Bottom pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move downward - trying to find support.
Even though it may appear my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern will not happen as I expect - this is a very good lesson for traders.
I'm not 100% accurate all the time. Sometimes, the markets do things that are not aligned with my research/patterns and sometimes the markets can be far more irrational than traders expect.
For example, I believe this current rally is more of a speculative rally in the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD. There is nothing I'm seeing in the Crash Index (or TRAN) to support this upward price move other than traders attempting to "buy the dip".
Ultimately, I believe the current contraction in the global economy based on policies, tariffs and economic disruptions will continue to drive a consolidation, basing type of price trend, traders are buying into this dip and attempting to drive price upward on expectations of a growing global economy.
Time will tell how things play out - but my longer-term modeling systems are still Bearish.
I will be on the road with my father today - so I'm not going to be as available to answer questions.
Watch this video twice if you need to. It will be interesting to see how the next 5+ days in the markets play out.
As I stated, I'm not 100% accurate all the time. I do my best to try to help guide all of you through these market trends with my research and cycle patterns - but, that is not enough to guarantee 100% accuracy on any trade.
That's just how it is in the world. No one is 100% perfect at predicting market moves.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY Holding the Channel – Can It Bounce or Fade Today?Market Summary
SPY is currently trading around $563, showing early weakness after stalling below key resistance at 566–567 last week. Futures were flat overnight with mixed macro sentiment and low volatility. We're starting today near the lower trendline of the rising channel visible on the 15-minute chart.
Technical Structure
* Trend: Price is still holding the lower boundary of the upward channel from May 1–2.
* Support: ORL at 564.29 and lower trendline ~563.20–563.40.
* Resistance: ORH at 565.47, PMH at 565.95, and GEX resistance at 567.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Flattening with bearish cross on shorter timeframes.
* Stoch RSI: Reset to lower range, watching for potential curl up.
Options & Gamma Insight (GEX)
* Current Price: $563
* PUT Pressure Dominant: GEX sentiment is 🔴🔴🔴 Bearish, with:
* PUT$ flow = 115.6% (significantly overweighted)
* IVR 26.1, IVx avg 20.4 = Still room to expand in volatility.
* Key Gamma Levels:
* Resistance Walls:
* 567 → 2nd CALL Wall (major resistance)
* 568–570 → CALL resistance zone
* Support Zones:
* 562–561 → Heavy GEX support
* 560 → Highest negative net GEX = strong PUT wall
Potential Scenarios for Today
🟢 Bullish Case:
* Price reclaims ORH 565.47 and breaks above 566, triggering momentum to test 567.
* If momentum continues, squeeze toward 568 or even 570 is possible, but less likely unless volume spikes.
🔴 Bearish Case:
* Break below 562.68 Ask, triggering fast move to 561.70 and possibly flush into 560 PUT wall.
* Below 560 opens the door to 557 or even 554–555 if panic selling or negative macro.
Actionable Levels
* Long above: 565.50 with target 566.80–567 | Stop < 563.80
* Short below: 562.80 with target 561 → 560 zone | Stop > 564.50
* Scalp Range Zone: Between 563.50–565.50 = chop risk
Final Take
SPY is pinned between heavy PUT support at 560 and CALL resistance at 567. With PUTs outweighing CALLs, a flush toward 561–560 could be favored unless bulls reclaim 566+. Watch for sharp directional trigger around 10:00–10:30 AM ET.
📌 This preview is for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management and confirm with your own system before trading.
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! QQQ SPY SP:SPX
Mag 7 Forecast TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT
The Best Analysis in the World...You might be shocked by the accuracy of this analysis — so much so that you won’t even know what to do next. Because yes, you could be just one step away from becoming a millionaire... and missing that moment is painful.
But don’t worry — I’m here, and I won’t let that happen.
This legendary setup is called The Golden Lizard, and trust me, it’s not here to play games. Don’t underestimate it. Please, stay calm... and don’t faint. 💥🦎💰
SP500 Correction neededSP500 Correction needed
Technical picture of correction:
- Wedge - internal and external
- Finish of W3
- Long period of gains
- Oscillator 4H+ overbought
SPY/QQQ 8 de Mayo 2025SPY/ES Liquidity & Target Zones - Market Plan Overview
This visual map integrates liquidity levels, volume walls, and SpotGamma data to forecast key trading zones. Let's break it down in a structured format for better clarity and decision-making:
🔴 Possible Sell Zone / Final Target
Zone: Around 571.17 SPY or 5750 ES
Label: "Possible Sell or Final Target Zone"
Confluence: Call Wall (+1) at 579, significant resistance
🧠 This is a key exhaustion point for long positions. Ideal area to take profit or consider shorts.
✅ Upside Targets (Long Bias)
Target # SPY Level ES Equivalent Notes
6 571.17 5750 ES Extreme resistance zone
5 570 5740 ES Above Call Wall
4 568 5720 ES Matches liquidity cluster
3 564.8 5685 ES Near RB Bottom
2 563.20 5670 ES Mid-range pullback
1 561.61 5650 ES Close to mid gamma
🧠 These levels can be used for trailing targets or re-entries on pullbacks.
🔻 Downside Targets (Short Bias)
Target # SPY Level ES Equivalent Notes
1 563.20 5670 ES First major support
2 561.61 5650 ES Mid gamma support
3 560 5635 ES Near Zero Gamma and Put Wall
🧠 Breaks below these can trigger accelerated downside moves.
📈 Key Zones
Green Zone (Buy Zone):
559–558 SPY — Strong Put Wall and bounce probability area.
Yellow Zone (Flip Zone):
Around 564.79 SPY — Possible area of reversal, watch for reactions here.
Red Zone (Sell Zone):
Above 570 SPY — Watch for overextension and reversal signs.
🔍 Technical Tools Used
Call/Put Walls: Indicate dealer hedging areas and potential price magnets.
Volume Profile: Highlights high-activity price zones.
SpotGamma Levels: Used to identify gamma flip zones, walls, and trigger areas.
🔁 Possible Scenarios
Bullish Path:
Bounce from 561–563 range → Reclaim 564.8 → Push towards 568, possibly 570+.
Bearish Path:
Rejection at 564.8 or 568 → Breakdown below 561 → Test Put Wall at 559.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 6, 2025 🔮🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📉 Market Retreats Amid Tariff Concerns
U.S. stock markets declined on May 5, 2025, as investors reacted to potential tariffs and key earnings reports. The S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq decreased 0.7%. Notably, Palantir Technologies ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) fell nearly 8% in extended trading despite raising its full-year revenue forecast and exceeding Q1 revenue estimates.
🏛️ Fed Meeting Commences Amid Political Pressure
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins today, with the central bank expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious due to inflationary risks from new tariffs and migration policies.
🎬 Entertainment Stocks Under Pressure
Streaming giants Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) and Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) experienced premarket losses of over 5% and 3%, respectively, following President Trump's proposal of a 100% tariff on foreign-made movies.
🏠 Housing Market Faces Challenges
The U.S. housing market is weakening due to persistent high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty driven by tariff policies. Mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.76%, have deterred both prospective buyers and sellers.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, May 6:
8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
I SPY levels....It's a FOMC week (scheduled for Wed 5/7). So you can use your skills to scalp prior if you can.
Levels to mark...
*week hi/lo
*day hi/lo
those levels should be helpful when you spot intraday setups (if you can). if you can plan a strong $1 move, you can win $50. play to your strengths. that's all i'm going to do.
$SPY Possible simulation with COVID, Bottom at 495 then ATH 630Lowest RSI since COVID , highest daily volume for years! but if copy the wave of COVID drop we can see some similarities. bottom by 2nd week April at 495 then consolidation at 530 then up and fighting zone between 550-560 then up and small top on June/July then All time high in Sep at 630. the idea, take long dated strangles options
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-30 : Moving Into FlaggingThis quick update video should help you understand how my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern could represent a move into FLAGGING within an inverted EPP pattern.
If my research is correct, the next move for the market will be a moderate downward price trend that will represent the FLAGGING portion of the inverted EPP pattern.
You've all see how bullish EPP patterns play out over the past 3 to 5+ months. Now we get to see how this recent SPY low near 480 turns into an inverted EPP pattern. This is basically the same pattern - but forming in an inverted mode.
As we transition through this inverted EPP pattern, what I'm looking for is a breakdown move to create the new FLAGGING formation. This move aligns perfectly with my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern and could be a perfect setup for the attempted "breaking of the Flag High" in late May 2025.
I'm watching Gold and Silver stay relatively strong today. So I'm seeing today's market move as a "reversion move" - not really a breakdown move (yet).
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
If the markets move into Flagging, as I expect, the big opportunities will be to ride the Flagging & Breakdown patterns over the next 30+ days before we move into either an INVALIDATION or CONTINUATION phase of the inverted EPP pattern.
Price is the ultimate indicator - you just need to know what to look for.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 2 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 2nd, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
SPY Trade Idea 4/24Currently ranging from 510s to 545s
Keep tight stop due to 548 to 562 gap
Let me know what you think
Have a great day
$SPY Trapped in a Bear Gap - May 2 2025 contract AMEX:SPY
How interesting that we traded completely within the bear gap yesterday .
First time above the 50 Day moving average in quite a while. 50 Day MA pointing us lower along with the 1hr underneath us.
Let’s go. Today’s Range looks like a fun way to close the week.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 2, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 2, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Rising Unemployment Claims Signal Labor Market Softening
Initial jobless claims increased by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, marking the highest level since late February. Continuing claims also rose to 1.916 million, indicating potential cracks in the labor market.
🏭 Manufacturing Sector Contracts Amid Tariff Pressures
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, indicating a second consecutive month of contraction. Tariffs on imported goods have strained supply chains and elevated input prices, contributing to the downturn.
📉 Construction Spending Declines
Construction spending decreased by 0.5% in March, reflecting reduced investments in both residential and nonresidential projects. This decline suggests caution in the construction sector amid economic uncertainties.
📊 Mixed Signals from Manufacturing Indices
While the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates contraction, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 50.2 in April, suggesting stability in some manufacturing segments despite broader challenges.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 2:
💼 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET)
Provides insight into employment trends and overall economic health.
📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET)
Measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
💰 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET)
Indicates wage growth and potential inflationary pressures.
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET)
Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing sector strength.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY in Focus: Tactical Day Trading Amid a Bullish RecoveryAs of early May, SPY consolidates around $560–$570, testing former support-turned-resistance.
On the daily chart, the market is pausing after a rapid rally, with $610 as major resistance and $540–$485 as key support. The 1-hour chart reflects a solid uptrend with recent consolidation between $555–$568, while the 15-minute chart shows intraday weakness with critical support at $560.
Three trading strategies emerge: (1) Bullish breakout, buying above $564–$568 with targets up to $580;
(2) Bearish breakdown, shorting below $560 with downside to $545; and
(3) Range trading, buying/selling within $558–$568 using tight stops. Confirmation via volume and candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing or hammer) is essential.
Short-term bias is bullish, but with caution—if SPY holds $560, it could retest $570 or break higher. A drop below $556 invalidates the bullish outlook.
