Palantir $230 soon...Palantir has had a huge year, running from the low-80s in January to a peak around 207 in early November before a sharp post-earnings flush into the 150s.
The recent selloff looks more like a high-volume reset in a strong primary uptrend than the start of a full top. I’m looking for a reclaim of 200 and a possible extension toward 230 into year-end.
Fundamentals / Narrative
Q3 2025: revenue grew ~63% Y/Y, with U.S. commercial revenue up 121% Y/Y. Management raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to ~53% growth and guided Q4 to stay in the 60%+ range.
Street now expects 2025 EPS around 0.52, so PLTR is expensive but no longer a “no-earnings” story – it’s becoming a high-growth, profitable AI infrastructure name.
Pullback from 207 to the 150s was triggered by valuation fears and profit-taking, not a breakdown in the underlying business. Price is now back near prior breakout areas from late summer / early fall.
Big picture: the AI spending cycle and Palantir’s commercial ramp are still intact; the stock is just digesting a parabolic move.
Technical View (1D)
Trend / Structure
Primary trend is still up: higher highs and higher lows on the 1D/1W despite the recent drop.
Price wicked into a strong demand zone around the mid-150s (prior consolidation + horizontal support) and bounced.
Short-term price is in a falling channel / wedge from the 207 high. We’re currently testing the upper side of that downtrend line.
RSI
Daily RSI washed out, then bounced and is now sitting just above 50.
That tells me downside momentum has cooled and we’re back to neutral / slightly bullish momentum rather than deeply overbought or oversold.
MACD
MACD is still below zero, but the red histogram bars are starting to contract and the lines are beginning to flatten.
That is classic “selling pressure is fading” behavior after a hard flush – good backdrop for a squeeze if price breaks the short-term downtrend.
Levels I’m watching
Support: 155–160 area (recent swing low zone). Lose this with volume and the idea is wrong for me.
First upside targets: 190–200 (prior breakdown area and psychological level).
Stretch target: 220–230 zone, which lines up with a measured move from the current pullback plus extension above the prior 207 high.
Trade Idea / Plan (how I’m thinking about it)
Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above the recent lows in the mid-150s.
Invalidation: A daily close below that demand zone (roughly 150–155) would tell me the market wants a deeper retrace, and I’d step aside.
Upside path:
Break and hold above the short-term downtrend line.
Reclaim 190–200 (fills the post-earnings gap area).
If momentum and volume stay strong, an extension toward 220–230 into year-end is on the table.
My rough probabilities (not financial advice)
Purely my subjective view based on trend, volatility and how far we are from the highs:
Retest 200+ at some point before EOY: ~50–60%
Hit 230 (new high / extension) before EOY: ~25–35%
Break below recent lows in the 150s and invalidate this bull idea: ~30–40%
In other words, I think a move back toward 200 is more likely than not, and a 230 squeeze is possible but not my “base case” – it needs clean technical follow-through and a friendly macro tape.
This is just my personal analysis and game plan for PLTR, not financial advice. Size and risk accordingly.
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