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GDF1! trade ideas

Gold Futures Trading Plan / July 21, 2025Overview This trade plan reflects a comprehensive view of gold futures (GC) going into the week of July 21, 2025. The analysis draws from current macroeconomic factors, positioning data, technical structure, and live order flow behavior. Every component has been evaluated to ensure the bias is not emotional or speculative but firmly evidence based. Macro Environment • Real US 10Y TIPS yields remain above 2.00%, historically a bearish regime for gold. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is firming, adding pressure to metals. • Absence of geopolitical or systemic financial stress weakens safe-haven demand. • The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone, with no near-term easing signaled. Positioning Overview (as of July 15, 2025) • Funds: Net long ~213,000 contracts, increasing their long exposure. • Commercials: Net short ~250,000 contracts, adding to short exposure. • Retail: Net long ~37,000 contracts, aligning with fund sentiment. This positioning suggests a crowded long environment with commercial hedging at elevated prices. Historically, such divergence has preceded local reversals in gold. > Commercials are unloading gold to the euphoric buyers >Retail is joining long side = late to the party Funds are late, commercials are patient. If we break higher and fail, that’s my cue to fade. Demand & Flows • India: Gold imports declined to a 14-month low in June. • China: Volume at the Shanghai Gold Exchange remains stable but subdued. These indicators reflect softness in physical demand from key global buyers. Technical Snapshot • Price is compressing within 3330–3375. • Point of control (POC) near 3358. • Repeated rejections near 3375 with weakening volume. • Negative divergence seen in cumulative volume delta (CVD). Order Flow Observations • Absorption noted near 3365–3380, with price stagnation despite aggressive buying. • Lack of delta follow-through into highs. • Spoofing behavior detected around 3372–3375, consistent with trap formation. Trade Thesis This is a macro-aligned short idea based on positioning, absorption at resistance, and weakening momentum into overhead supply. Execution Framework (example scenario) This is a non-binding conceptual entry framework for educational purposes only. • Initial scale-in: ~3367.5 (light test) • Main entry zone: ~3371.5 (if absorption continues) • Optional add-on: ~3374.5 (if spoofing holds and no breakout occurs) • Risk: Hypothetical invalidation above ~3385.5 • Targets: • T1: ~3348 (value area) • T2: ~3332 (prior support) Note: Actual execution must depend on real-time confirmation and discipline. This example is not financial advice or a live signal. Sentiment Bias Currently biased short if price fails to break 3375 with conviction. Trade invalidates on sustained strength through absorption zones. Probability: High
COMEX:GC1!Short
by theoneelena
2
GC1! Breakout Confirmation & Bullish Continuation Potential Gold Futures Analysis – Breakout Confirmation & Bullish Continuation Potential After an extended consolidation within a descending channel, Gold has successfully broken out, aligning with the overall bullish bias evident from the broader market structure. Key Observations: Overall Bias: Bullish, supported by higher-timeframe structure and trendline confluence. Breakout Confirmation: Clean breakout above the descending channel, showing increased bullish momentum. 200 SMA Flip: Price reclaimed the 200-period SMA, reinforcing a shift in sentiment. Key Zone Retests: The market is expected to retest the previous resistance (now support) around the 3345–3350 zone before any continuation. Volume & RSI: Rising volume and RSI above 50 support further bullish continuation, with a short-term target toward the 3418 region. Plan Ahead: I anticipate a short pullback to the support zone followed by bullish continuation if price holds above the breakout structure. Follow @GoldenZoneFX For more content and valuable insights.
COMEX:GC1!
by GoldenZoneFX
GOLD! Pre-Market Analysis For Friday July 18th!In this video, we'll present pre-market analysis and best setups for Friday July 18th. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
Gold Futures ($GC1!) — US Session Setup: Bearish Retest from 618🟡 Gold Futures ( COMEX:GC1! ) — US Session Setup: Bearish Retest from 0.618 Fib in Bullish Breakout Context ⏳ Pre-US Session Playbook We're currently watching Gold Futures ( COMEX:GC1! ) for a potential short opportunity into the US session open. While the broader structure has broken bullish, we're anticipating a bearish retest scenario from a key Fibonacci level — aligning cleanly with last week’s breakout structure. No positions have been taken yet — we are setting up for the US session — and are closely monitoring price action near the 0.618 retracement zone before committing. 📍 Setup Breakdown • 0.618 Fib Retracement from the last bearish impulse aligns with: ○ Recent volume shelf resistance ○ Retest zone from prior breakout ○ An overextended local push into thin volume above 3380 • Bullish Context: ○ HTF breakout from descending wedge structure remains valid ○ Macro buyers still in control ○ Upside continuation risk is high if sellers don’t show up • Short Bias Conditions: ○ Rejection or absorption in the 3385–3390 zone ○ Weak follow-through above 0.618 (failed breakout scenario) ○ Breakdown of LTF higher low structure post-test 🧠 Strategy Commentary Although we’re in bullish breakout mode, this is a tactical short setup — a fade into prior structure with clear invalidation. We're not fighting trend, but looking to short into exhaustion at a defined level, with tight risk parameters. Confluence Factors: • 0.618 fib alignment • VRVP volume shelf • Prior breakout structure retest • LTF divergence or absorption confirming the fade 🎯 Trade Parameters (Planned) • Entry Zone: ~3385–3390 • Stop Loss: Tight, 3395–3400 • Target Zone: 3342–3337 (full structure retest) 📌 Patience is key — this remains a setup until confirmed. We'll post live if and when conditions are met. Let the market come to you.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Beneath the Shelf Lies OblivionThis setup on MGC is a textbook example of what happens when structure, compression, and liquidity converge at a critical price shelf. We’re currently sitting on top of a demand break zone near 3330, right at the intersection of a long-term ascending trend line and a descending supply-side compression line. This convergence zone is what I’m calling the Decision Point and the reaction from here will likely dictate the next directional leg. Bearish Scenario – Breakdown Play If price breaks and closes below 3330, I’m looking for a clean short setup triggered by: - Loss of structure at the imbalance shelf - No reaction from buyers at the previously defended zone - Bearish pressure from HTF supply overhead (3385 zone) - Momentum break from recent liquidity sweep at 3360 Trigger Entry: Below 3327 (post-break retest) Stop: Above 3338 (invalidates reclaim) TP1: 3305 (minor demand pocket) TP2: 3285 (full move into HTF demand) TP3 (optional): 3275 (tail end of imbalance) Price would be transitioning from demand acceptance to supply dominance. The HTF supply above has been respected, and sellers remain in control if 3330 gives out. Bullish Scenario – Reclaim Play If price holds the 3330 demand shelf and reclaims structure with strength, I’m interested in a long position toward resting liquidity above. Trigger Entry: Above 3342 (engulfing + reclaim of broken structure) Stop: Below 3325 (demand failure = no-go) TP1: 3360 (liquidity sweep) TP2: 3385 (HTF supply retest) If buyers defend this compression shelf, this could become a failed breakdown setup which often results in sharp squeezes. There’s also layered liquidity above 3360 from late sellers that could get raided quickly. Let me put it in context: HTF Zones Labeled: These areas are not just visual, they’ve driven major moves previously. I'm using them to anchor bias. Compression Point: This is where your edge lies. Price is coiled between trendlines and major levels meaning the breakout will be decisive. Volume Ignition Expected: Whether long or short triggers, expect strong follow-through due to the nature of the buildup. No bias here just structure, zones, and execution plans. I’ll trade whichever side triggers first with confirmation, not prediction. This is the type of setup where patience pays more than opinion. Would love to hear how others are seeing this are you leaning with the shelf or looking to fade the break?
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by stakkd
Gold Took the Bait Then Got Body BaggedThis afternoon I stepped outside my usual mechanical system and ran a classic: the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) on MGC just to see if gold still respects the old-school plays. Marked the range of the first 15-minute candle, waited for the break and confirmation close, then entered on the short side. Asset: Micro Gold Futures (MGC1!) Timeframe: 15-Minute Strategy: Opening Range Breakout Session: NY Bias: Short Trigger: Bearish 15-min close below the ORB low Notes ATR Expansion: Signalled volatility coming off the open (range >20 ticks) Liquidity Trap: Gold swept ORB highs before dumping a classic trap-and-flush Volume Confirmation: Delta turned aggressively negative at the break Risk-Reward: Tight stop above range, clean 1:3 move into session lows ORB: Dumb-Simple, Still Deadly ORB is one of the simplest tools in a trader's playbook and that’s what makes it dangerous (in both directions). When it works, it works. You define the opening range, wait for price to break out and confirm, and ride the move. But here’s the nuance: Gold LOVES to fake one side before exploding the other. It’ll sweep liquidity, bait breakout traders, then detonate in the opposite direction. Today was a textbook clean sweep of ORB highs, then a brutal reversal and breakdown. I usually lean on mechanical, model-based strategies, structured entries, rule-based exits, logic-driven setups. But I’m not blind to price. Having a few flexible strategies like ORB in the toolkit gives you options on days where market intent is obvious. So… does ORB actually work? Here's what the research says: - Al Brooks (Price Action Trading) ORB-type plays win 55–60% of the time when confirmed with price action and managed properly. - Linda Raschke (Street Smarts) ORB entries rated highly during volatility expansions especially in futures. - Quantified Strategies (S&P 500 ORB backtest)/b] 57% win rate with basic 1:1 R:R and no filters. Internal Bookmap/Tradovate tracking on MGC . Fake outs occur in 30–40% of ORB plays, especially during thin liquidity or low-news days. But let’s be real that 55–60% win rate is open to interpretation. It depends on the confluences. Are you using delta confirmation? Are you filtering by session or volatility? Are you waiting for a close outside the range or just guessing? ORB works if you work it. The strategy isn’t magic. The execution is. The twist with today wasn't a "trend continuation" move. It was a rejection. Gold baited breakout longs, then pulled the rug. This is where mechanical structure meets tape intuition. Retail chased. Price snapped. Quant stayed calm and shorted the flush. What Do You Think? Do you still trust ORB? Or is it a trap most days? Do your stats back it up or have you evolved beyond it? Let’s open it up. Drop your ORB rules, tweaks, or horror stories below. I’ll reply to every serious one.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by stakkd