US30 trade ideas
US30 | Bearish Pressure Builds Below 44,170 โ Breakout or BounceUS30: Eyes on Earnings and News
US stocks edged higher pre-market after Trump denied plans to fire Fed Chair Powell, easing market concerns. With corporate earnings in focus, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
Technical View:
The price holds bullish momentum above 44170, targeting 44280 and 44500.
A 1H close below 44170 may lead to a drop toward 44075, and breaking below that would open the path to 43960 and 43630.
A 1H close above 44280 strengthens the bullish case toward 44500.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 44280, 44410, 44500
Support: 44075, 43960, 43630
previous idea:
Dow offering buyers much to work with!The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is clearly trending higher, pencilling in a series of higher highs and higher lows. Supporting this trend is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 42,816 crossing above the 200-day SMA at 42,749; this is referred to as a โGolden Crossโ and suggests a longer-term uptrend may be on the table.
This, coupled with the recent โalternateโ AB=CD bullish formation (1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio) completing at support from 43,877, has already seen buyers step in (with stops potentially located south of the 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio of 43,637). The next upside objective from here rests around resistance at 45,058, closely shadowed by the all-time high of 45,073.
Written by the FP Markets Research Team
Bulls Steady Ahead of Key Earnings and Economic DataU.S. equities are holding steady in what has been a week of conflicting signals. President Trumpโs aggressive stance on trade, including potential 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, has shaken market sentiment, but his public commitment to retain Jerome Powell as Fed Chair brought some temporary relief. That stability, at least for now, is helping underpin stock indices.
Focus has now turned to corporate earnings, with key players like TSMC and Netflix reporting shortly. These names could set the tone for the broader Q2 earnings season. At the same time, traders are closely monitoring incoming U.S. data โ including retail sales and jobless claims โ to gauge the health of the consumer and labor market. The combination of strong earnings and resilient macro data could provide the momentum
Technical Structure:
โข Resistance: 44,350 โ a potential breakout point
โข Support: 44,000 and 43,800
โข Pattern: The index is trading within a descending channel, but recent strength suggests a breakout may be developing.
โข Upside potential: If earnings and macro data support risk appetite, a breakout toward 44,800 becomes plausible.
Takeaway: Sentiment remains fragile but stable. Traders should keep a close eye on both corporate results and macro data releases for direction cues.
DOW JONES 1H ANALYSIS โ JULY 17, 2025๐ DOW JONES 1H ANALYSIS โ JULY 17, 2025
๐ Tracking structure | key levels | trade ideas
๐น Current Price: 44,248
๐ Timeframe: 1H
๐ Bias: Neutral โ Short-term bullish โ
๐ MARKET STRUCTURE UPDATE:
Price held strong at 43,929 โ key support from earlier July lows ๐
After a deep pullback from 44,800s, weโre seeing a bounce with price reclaiming the 21 & 50 EMA ๐ง
This signals short-term buyer momentum stepping in โ but caution: weโre still trading below key resistance ๐
๐น KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
Support:
๐ข 43,929 โ major bounce zone (held)
๐ข 44,182 โ short-term EMA support
Resistance:
๐ด 44,523 โ former support, now flipped resistance
๐ด 44,555 โ breakdown origin
๐ด 44,857 โ major supply zone top
๐ก TRADE SCENARIOS:
๐ผ Bullish Case:
If price holds above 44,200 and pushes through 44,523โ44,555, we likely see 44,700+ retest ๐ฅ
A breakout + hold above 44,555 = trend shift confirmed ๐
๐ฝ Bearish Case:
If rejection at 44,523/555 holds, watch for rotation back to 44,000 โ 43,929
Below 43,929 = possible slide to 43,700โ43,600 demand ๐จ
Dow Jones H1 | Approaching a pullback resistanceThe Dow Jones (US30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 44,308.44 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 44,450.00 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 44,074.17 which is a swing-low support.
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Could the price rise from here?Dow Jones (US30) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 43,908.34
1st Support: 43,228.22
1st Resistance: 44,759.62
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DOW JONES formed 1st 1D Golden Cross since 2022!Dow Jones (DJIA) completed on Monday its 1st Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame since December 12 2022! This powerful bullish pattern comes with the price close to its All Time High (ATH).
Being inside almost a 3-year Channel Up, the current rise is the pattern's latest Bullish Leg following the April 07 2025 bottom (Higher Low). Both previous Bullish Legs rose by +39.96% before forming a Higher High.
Based on the Fibonacci retracement levels, last time the previous Bullish Leg was within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci Zone, it formed a Re-accumulation Phase for 3 months. As a result, we shouldn't dismiss the fact of trading sideways for the rest of the Summer and then picking up the pace. Our end-of-year Target remains 50000.
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US30 โ Bearish Outlook Below 44,500 as CPI Looms US30 โ Bearish Outlook Below 44,500 as CPI Looms
US30 rallied and successfully reached our resistance target, as expected in the previous analysis.
However, with todayโs CPI release, the market is likely to see increased volatility. As long as the index trades below 44,500โ44,570, the bias remains bearish, with downside targets at 44,210 and 43,960.
โข If CPI prints below 2.6%, we may see a bullish breakout toward 45,100
โข Above or equal to 2.6% supports continuation of the bearish move
However, we expect a 2.7% reading, driven by tariff-related price increases, which would support the bearish scenario.
US30 Update โ 07/16/2025๐ US30 Update โ 07/16/2025
The bearish momentum continues โ and it's clean.
After rejecting 44,555โ44,600 supply last week, US30 has been in a clear downtrend, and now weโve broken below 44,000, tapping into the 43,900 zone. Sellers are dominating, and buyers havenโt shown strength on any retrace yet. โ ๏ธ
๐ Market Structure:
โ
Lower highs, lower lows locked in
๐งญ Rejected 44.6k supply on lower volume = bearish intent
๐ Price now below EMAs (20 & 50), which are sloping down hard
๐ Current price printing near multi-week support
๐ Key Levels:
๐ฝ Support: 43,800 โ 43,600 โ 43,300
๐ผ Resistance: 44,100 โ 44,220 โ 44,555
๐ฃ Break of 43,800 = high probability for further downside flush
๐ก Trade Ideas:
๐ป Short Setup โ Trend Continuation:
Entry: Pullback into 44,100โ44,200
Confirmation: Bearish rejection candle
TP1: 43,800
TP2: 43,600
SL: Above 44,300
โ ๏ธ No long bias unless bulls reclaim 44,400 with conviction.
US30 Bearish IdeaAs we can see this is a anticipation of us being in a quarterly shift in the markets and having an assumption that we had a retracement up to collect more orders for smart money to go short. We have relative strength with US30 against both NASDAQ and the SP500. We have seen resistance in our premium arrays of our weekly FVG and daily order block
* Fundamental analysis:
We are are having a shift in our bond yields which could potentially effect the dollar giving it strength and you add the fact that dollar is under valued when we have a stronger dollar rate than the rest of the basket currencies we could see it negatively effect the Dow this quarter. The Dow is very over valued and we have had consistent quantitative easing from the Fed and the Fed balance sheet has been still consistently decreasing. The commercial interest have also seen a great rise of buying dollar and if dollar is being bought up then something would need to be sold.