Aecon Group Inc. (TSX: ARE) — Swing Trade💰 Aecon Group Inc. (TSX: ARE) — Swing Trade Breakdown
Chart Date: Nov 13, 2025
RSI(2): 3.11 (deep oversold signal)
🏢 Company Snapshot
Aecon Group is one of Canada’s leading infrastructure and construction companies — active in transportation, utilities, and industrial projects. The stock has been trending higher since mid-2024, supported by strong backlog growth and resilient margins in public and energy projects.
📈 Fundamentals
Valuation remains moderate with a P/E around 9×, a healthy 3.4% dividend yield, and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio near 0.6. Free cash flow and liquidity are solid, positioning Aecon to capitalize on new government-funded infrastructure spending. Fundamentally sound and cash-generative — ideal for steady accumulation during pullbacks.
🔍 Technical Setup
ARE recently pulled back from its October peak near CAD $35 to test the 50-day moving average around $27–28, printing a strong RSI(2) oversold reading at 3.11 — historically a high-probability bounce zone on this ticker.
Price remains above the 200-SMA (~$21), confirming a sustained uptrend. Volume has stabilized after the post-earnings surge, showing orderly profit-taking rather than panic.
The pattern resembles a textbook pullback within an ongoing uptrend, where previous “BUY” signals at the 50-SMA have consistently led to multi-week rallies.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry Zone: $27.00 – $27.50, near 50-SMA and RSI(2) signal confirmation.
Stop Loss: $25.80, below the 50-SMA and recent swing low.
Target: $31.50 – $33.00, near prior resistance and measured-move projection.
Risk/Reward: ~2.5× potential return to risk.
Aggressive traders may scale in at current levels; conservative traders can wait for a bullish reversal candle or reclaim of $28.00 with uptick in volume.
🧠 Swing Trader’s View
Aecon is in a bullish intermediate trend with short-term oversold momentum. RSI(2) at 3.11 is one of the lowest readings of 2025 — typically preceding a relief rally. As long as price holds above $26.00, the 50-SMA should act as dynamic support.
This setup aligns with prior buy triggers seen earlier in the trend (August and September), both leading to strong continuation swings.
💡 Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)
Expecting a technical rebound toward $31+ if the 50-SMA holds.
Favouring a buy-the-dip swing targeting mid-November strength — confirmation comes with an RSI(2) cross back above 10 and volume expansion off the 50-day line.
