SIA.TO - Swing Trade 2025-12-02💰 SIA.TO — Swing Trade Breakdown
(Sienna Senior Living — TSX)
🏢 Snapshot
Sienna Senior Living operates long-term care and senior-living residences across Canada. Demographic tailwinds (aging population) + stable occupancy continue to support demand. Recent momentum and a clean pullback into trend make this attractive for a short-term swing.
📊 Fundamentals
SIA trades at a premium valuation: P/E near 50× and P/B about 3× — the market is pricing in stable growth rather than current profitability. Leverage is on the higher side for the sector, and free cash flow coverage of the dividend is historically weak.
Dividend yield is attractive at ~4.7% monthly, but payout ratio is stretched. Profitability metrics (ROE) are modest. Big picture: yield is good, valuation is rich, leverage is heavy — but the demographic demand story keeps buyers involved.
Fundamental takeaway: Premium valuation + yield story with moderate risk; better as a swing than a strict dividend hold.
📈 Trends & Catalysts
Revenues have been slowly improving and occupancy trends remain stable. Recent cost controls and acquisitions help sentiment.
Catalysts include: aging-population theme, potential rate stabilization, and the monthly dividend which attracts income buyers on dips.
Risks: high leverage, dividend sustainability, and sensitivity to regulatory changes in Canadian long-term care funding.
🪙 Sector Context
Canadian senior-care and healthcare-residential names have been grinding higher on monthly and yearly timeframes. Momentum is steady, supported by defensive capital rotation and interest-rate stabilization. Sentiment is neutral-to-bullish.
📐 Technicals
Price is currently around 20.44, pulling back after a strong November run.
50-SMA sits ~19.50 and remains firmly upward-sloping — bullish intermediate trend.
RSI(2) dropped into oversold territory, indicating a potential bounce zone.
Structure shows a clean pullback into trend, with support between 19.6–19.9 and resistance around 21.5–22.0.
No distribution signals in volume — consolidation looks healthy.
🎯 Trade Plan
I’m watching for entries around 19.60–19.90 on a pullback toward the 50-SMA.
Stop below 18.90, which breaks the support structure.
Targeting 21.50–22.20, retest of recent highs.
Risk/reward sits around 2:1 to 2.5:1 depending on entry.
Alternate plan: If price fails below 18.90, wait for a new base before re-engaging.
🧠 My Take
Technically, SIA looks strong: rising trend, constructive pullback, and oversold intraday momentum. Fundamentals are mixed — good yield, heavy leverage, premium valuation — so this isn’t a long-term safety play. But for a trend-aligned swing, this setup is clean.
I’m bullish on a bounce into 21.5+ if support holds.
