Europe’s Risk Map Has Flipped — France Replaces GreeceA decade ago, Greece symbolized the eurozone’s sovereign crisis — junk-rated, under bailout supervision, and trading with spreads above 3,000 bps vs the German Bund.
France, meanwhile, was near AAA, considered the cornerstone of European credit stability.
Today, that map has flipped.
🔹 Greece now sits in the middle of the pack — its spread has collapsed to ~70 bps, after years of fiscal reform and ECB backstops.
🔹 France, once a core safe haven, is now the worst-rated among the major euro economies.
All three major agencies — S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch — have progressively cut its rating, pushing it down from AA to the lower A range, only six notches above junk.
🔹 Italy remains the barometer of European risk, but France’s fiscal slippage and high deficit (≈5% of GDP) are now drawing the spotlight.
The combination of these two charts tells a clear story:
The “peripheral” risk has converged, while “core” credibility has eroded.
Europe’s sovereign hierarchy is no longer what it used to be.
