US 10Y TREASURY: June data cools rate cut hopesThe US inflation and jobs data shaped investors sentiment during the previous week, where 10Y US Treasury yields eased as of the end of the week. The US inflation remains relatively steady and in line with expectations, with 0,3% increase in June or 2,7% y/y. The producers price Index was holding at
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$US10Y - $US02Y Inversion and $NDX Drawdowns Since 1989I cleaned the chart a bit for readability.
The chart shows historical inversions in the TVC:US10Y and TVC:US02Y and the drawdowns in the NASDAQ:NDX that followed. The implication is that we should expect to see a >50% drawdown within 4 months. I'm not calling the "why" but only drawing paral
TShort

$NDX Black Swan Correlation of Variance from 0% of $US10Y $US02YIt appears that since 1989, deeper inversions of the yield curve have led to deeper drawdowns in the $NDX. Relative strength always appears to be in a steeper move upward coupled with fuzzy signals in volatility before the drawdown. Based on the previous market crashes, anything from a 60% to 90% dr
TShort

US 10Y TREASURY: tariff tensions rattle bonds During the previous week there has not been important US macro data scheduled for a release, however, news regarding tariffs has been the ones which shaped investors sentiment and also, US bond yields. It was indeed a no-clear-direction trading week when it comes to 10Y Treasury benchmark yields. Th
US10Y UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD .US 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaction to July 15, 2025 Economic Data
Key Economic Data (July 15, 2025)
Indicator Actual Forecast Previous
Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
CPI y/y 2.7% 2.6% 2.4%
Empire State Mfg Index 5.5 — -8.3
Market Reaction: US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Yield Movement
US10Y & T-Bond Futures Weekly UpdateWeekly Targets:
US10Y: 4.445% - 4.477%
T-Bond: 112.18 - 112.12 - 111.25
US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook July 14-18 (updated daily)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 14-18 (updated daily)
Overnight
On Friday, the US 10-year Treasury note yield increased by nearly 4 basis points to approximately 4.39%, driven by market concerns over new tariff threats from President Trump. These include a proposed 35% tariff on
The Bessent Effect: Part I-Challenge the FedThe Bessent Effect: Part I-Challenge the Fed
Originally posted on June 30th, 2025, but it was removed by a moderator — I misinterpreted the posting guidelines (I tend to read a little too deep between the lines sometimes).
For context, the original version didn’t include the White or Green lines.
UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 21-25 (updated dailyUS Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 21-25 (updated daily)
Overnight
On Friday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note slightly declined to 4.44%, driven by investor reactions to the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Chr
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A graphical representation of the interest rates on debt for a range of maturities.
Frequently Asked Questions
The current yield rate is 4.386% — it's decreased by −1.19% over the past week.
The current yield of United States 10 Year Government Bonds is 4.386%, whereas at the moment of issuance it was 3.520%, which means 24.60% change. Over the week the yield has decrased by −1.19%, the month performance has showed a 2.19% increase, and it has risen by 2.29% over the year.
Maturity date is when a debt comes due and all principal and/or interest must be repaid to creditors. For example, the United States 10 Year Government Bonds maturity date is May 15, 2035.
You can buy United States 10 Year Government Bonds through brokers — choose the one that suits your needs and go ahead. You can also purchase bonds directly from the issuing organization. Closely track the price dynamics and market news before making any decision.
A bond is a debt security issued by a corporation or a government. By buying bonds, investors loan the issuer money in return for an interest rate. By issuing bonds, the state receives funds that can then be injected into the economy, and corporations raise funds for new research or other operational activities. The alphanumeric code of government bonds represents the abbreviated name of the issuing state, as well as its time to maturity. For example, United States 10 Year Government Bonds is the US government bonds with the maturity of 10 years.
Bonds can be of various maturities, e.g. short-term (less than three years), medium-term (four to 10 years), or long-term ones (more than 10 years). So United States 10 Year Government Bonds are medium-term bonds — they have the maturity of 10 years.