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SP500 Resumes The Uptrend After Bears Stops At Key LevelUS stock market moved lower recently, and we’ve seen one of the biggest declines in the last few months, with lower highs and lower swing lows for the last couple of weeks, but there is still a chance that this is basically a diagonal formation on SP500, either in wave C or alternatively already in wave A or wave 1. But so far looks more like a completed C wave of a flat due to the current strong rebound, which can be the beginning of a new wave 5 headed towards new highs; What’s important in the near future, in our opinion, is that as long as the market trades above 6512 support, there is a real chance that there will be more upside in the near-term. At least three wave rally is what I would be looking for. GH
VANTAGE:SP500
by ew-forecast
US500 Outlook: Upside Bias Persists.Fundamental Analysis: Macro Drivers Market participants are currently expressing renewed confidence in Federal Reserve rate cuts, driving a risk-on sentiment that is the primary support for US equity valuations and the US500. Lower interest rates decrease discount rates for future earnings, which benefits growth-oriented sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. The US500’s rally benefits from the prevailing market view that the Fed will cut interest rates, a primary factor reducing the discount rate and lifting asset valuations. Additionally, earnings strength from mega-cap technology companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), and others reinforces market optimism and risk appetite. Although US job growth softened, recent payrolls data exceeded expectations, and falling inflation supports the case for monetary easing. Focus turns to further US economic data to confirm growth risks Technical Analysis: Breakout and Targets US500 recently broke above the psychological resistance at 6,770, indicating strong upward momentum. The price is currently consolidating gains near this former resistance. Should the rally continue, the next major upside target for US500 is the resistance at 6,830. Conversely, falling below the 6630-6700 range could lead US500 to retest the subsequent support at 6,515. US500 will likely find initial support near 6630 if a minor pullback occurs Outlook: Upside Bias Persists With dovish Fed expectations and continued strong performance from the technology sector, the US500 outlook maintains an upside bias. Closing above 6,830 could prompt US500 to retest the following resistance at 6,925. However, volatility may increase as investors watch for any major shift in the economic environment or a change in the Fed's guidance. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness.
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
SPX Make or Break: Bull Flag or FVG RejectionSPX is in a make or break situation. Break this bull flag, and we could head header to touch the $7,000 psychological level. Reject here, and we could see lower at $6,500. After reclaiming the anchored vWAP, SPX is pushing into a stacked zone of resistances: Upper Bull Flag trendline Bearish Fair Value Gap 0.618 Fib Retracement Upside trigger: – Break and hold above the FVG + 0.786 (≈ 6835–6920). – Target = retest of highs / 7000. Downside trigger: – Failure at FVG - Breakdown of bull flag - Move towards Rally POC at 6459
SP:SPX
by Alchemy Markets
SPX500: Risk-On Sentiment Builds as Bulls Eye 6733SPX500 | Technical Overview Global markets are riding a risk-on wave after a sudden jump in U.S. rate-cut expectations, triggered by dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials. However, gains may cool in Europe as FX markets remain alert to possible Bank of Japan yen intervention. Geopolitics also added to market sentiment: U.S. President Donald Trump described relations with China as “extremely strong” after his call with President Xi — reinforcing a short-term risk-on environment. Technical Outlook SPX500 is expected to retest the pivot zone near 6670–6705 before attempting another bullish extension. Bullish Scenario: After retesting the pivot, the price may push upward toward 6733, and if momentum holds, extend to 6771 and 6800. Bearish Scenario: A 1H candle close below 6670 will activate bearish pressure toward 6635, with further downside potential toward 6578. Overall structure remains bullish as long as the price trades above the pivot zone. Support: 6670 · 6635 · 6578 Resistance: 6733 · 6771 · 6800
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
US500 Bullish: Entry: 6,700 – 6,720US500 – Institutional Intraday Analysis (Athena Protocol v7.3) Exchange: IC Markets Current Price: ~6,791.00 Current Time: 01:57 UTC-5 Timeframe: 90m 1. Market Bias: Bullish (but overstretched and vulnerable to a liquidity tap) Bias Explanation This chart screams: “Yes, we are bullish, but please… someone sweep me properly before I continue.” Let’s break it down. Goldbach Levels Strong PO3 clustering around 6561 and 6723–6804, but price is now far above these baselines. – Algo signals on the 27 and 81 rows: BR → FV, RB → OB, -RB → -OB These represent continuation patterns, not reversal ones. – The 243 & 729 rows show FV → MB and LV → -LV, again supportive of continuation after retracement. Conclusion: Goldbach models favor bullish continuation after a pullback. They do not support longing at current highs. Visible Range Volume Profile – Major HVN at ~6,690–6,720 – Low-volume void above price → explains the straight-line rally. – But current price at 6,791 is sitting in a thin-volume zone = susceptible to deep intraday pullbacks. Session Volume Profile – Sessions are printing higher Value Area Highs and Lows → trending structure. – But today’s session POC is lagging behind price → inefficiency = retracement likely. CVD – CVD is flat-to-slightly declining despite price rising. This is one of Athena’s biggest red flags: Displacement not supported by real buy flow = engineered move. COT (Non-Commercial USD positions) Massively bearish sentiment: – % Short = 73% – Net positions = –14,933, worsening from –13,145 – Big players increased shorts, decreased longs. This is why pullbacks on US500 have been savage lately. Macro Snapshot – FOMC cautious but not dovish; market pricing soft-landing narrative. – Trump’s fiscal plans support equities short-term. – But rising Middle East tensions + Treasury issuance linger as downside catalysts. Overall Bias: Bullish trend, but the smarter long is taken after the sweep. 2. Key Interpretation – Market is too high, too fast. – CVD + COT warn that this pump is weak-handed. – Volume profile signals a retest toward 6,720 or even 6,660 before further rally. Bias: BUY ONLY — but only after liquidity raids. Not at the highs. Never at the highs. Not even if you’re feeling lucky. 3. Smart Money Buy Levels A. Aggressive Buy Limit Entry: 6,745 – 6,755 SL: 6,708 TP1: 6,793 TP2: 6,820 TP3: 6,855 Rationale: – First micro-inefficiency beneath current structure. – Will likely fill on the first intraday pullback. – Partial mitigation of the OB at the current high. Win Probability: ~58% Works if momentum continues without deep sweep. B. Conservative Buy Limit (Primary Institutional Level) Entry: 6,700 – 6,720 SL: 6,660 TP1: 6,780 TP2: 6,815 TP3: 6,860 Rationale: – This is the visible range HVN and prior volume shelf. – The ideal level where algos reload. – Matches Goldbach’s 81 PO3 level + session POC cluster. Win Probability: ~72% Most reliable for today’s trading. C. Very Safe Buy Limit (Institutional Raid Zone) Entry: 6,645 – 6,660 SL: 6,588 TP1: 6,720 TP2: 6,780 TP3: 6,840 Rationale: – Deep sweep of equal intraday lows. – Cleans out all short-term long stops. – Aligns with Goldbach 729 and 243 baseline structures. – Best RR, but may not fill unless NY session gets heavy liquidity injection. Win Probability: ~81% The highest-probability setup but lowest fill probability. 4. Why These Plays Work Technical Confluence – US500 is extended into low-volume weeds. – CVD shows buyers exhausted. – Goldbach signals agree with continuation but ONLY after the retrace. – Volume profiles indicate untested demand zones below. Macro Confluence – Equities remain favored but heavily crowded. – Short-term short squeeze may have just finished. – COT data screams: “Market too high. Needs a flush.” So we wait… and buy the flush. 5. Best Trading Session – London AM → NY Opening Range These sessions consistently deliver the retracements US500 refuses to give in Asia. 6. Athena’s Final Words US500 right now is like a caffeinated intern: sprinting full-speed without checking whether their shoelaces are tied. Spoiler: they’re not. Let the kid trip, scoop up the dip, and ride the rebound. This is educational analysis, not financial advice.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by PlazoSullivanRocheCapital
Hindenburg Omen Is Flashing AgainThe Hindenburg Omen has triggered, and it’s lining up with what the market breadth data has been whispering for months. If you look at the bottom pane, you’ll see the percentage of stocks above their major moving averages has been sliding for about six months. So even though the index has kept pushing to new highs, fewer stocks are moving with it. A small group of mega-caps is doing all the heavy lifting, while the broader market slowly weakens underneath. Historically, that’s exactly the kind of environment where the Hindenburg Omen becomes relevant. It doesn’t promise a crash, but it flags when internal conditions have deteriorated enough to allow one. Several past signals have occurred before meaningful corrections. Why This Matters Now The next couple of weeks are important. CPI, PPI and labour data between now and 10 December will shape expectations heading into the FOMC meeting. If the Fed changes tone on monetary policy, liquidity, or the path of rates, it will feed directly into sector rotation and capital flows. That’s why I’m not committing to any major trades right now. The signals are mixed, breadth is weakening, leadership is narrow and policy risk is rising. Capital preservation comes first until we get a clear direction from the data and the Fed. Sometimes the smartest move is patience. Let the data confirm the story. The market isn’t going anywhere.
SP:SPXEducation
by TappingCapital
2
Sell US500 – Clear Signs of Bearish Smart-Money Flow1. Bearish structure confirmed The previous bullish Order Block has been completely broken with a sharp displacement and high volume. When an OB fails this decisively, it signals a clear shift in market structure from bullish to bearish as buyers lose control. 2. New Bearish Order Block formed at the break of structure After the breakdown, price retraced back into the zone above the break and created a new VNShark-OB: Strong breakout volume → footprint of Smart Money stepping in Wide Imbalance (IMB) → liquidity gap left unfilled Initial reaction from the zone → sellers defending the area This is a typical smart-money pattern before the next bearish leg. 3. Trade Plan – Two Sell Limits Sell Limit 1 First touch of the new OB 50% position size Sell Limit 2 Higher liquidity sweep 100% position size Expectation: Smart Money may push price higher to hunt liquidity before sending it lower. 4. Risk Management & Notes No chasing if price drops without a retest Position size according to strict risk management Avoid trading near major news releases Setup becomes invalid if price closes above the entire OB zone Do not hold trades over the weekend Signature Follow VNShark to understand how Smart Money leaves footprints — and how you can follow them with precision.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by VNShark-OB
7
The S&P 500: The Last Stand Into Year-EndThe 2025 bull market has culminated as presented in my previous post. The major structure topped on October 28th, with a secondary, weaker high on November 12th. What remains now is the distribution phase into the final weeks of the year—where the market decides whether it will stabilize and potentially from a double top or begin its descent into 2026. 1. Location in Structure Price is currently trading beneath the declining angle drawn from the October and November tops. This angle declines at $4 per day, and has acted as the defining rhythm of the post-top decline. Top of the year: October 28 Lower high: November 12 Current position: Beneath the angle → inside potential distribution 2. The Two Paths The market has two paths from here: A. Bullish Path — December Rally Trigger To challenge the November 12th high, the S&P must close above the angle. A confirmed break of the angle → opens the path to 📈 6,860 in the first week of December This would represent a counter-trend rally back into the underside of the broader 2025 cycle structure. B. Bearish Path — Rejection = Lower Prices If price rejects at the angle, it signals: distribution is underway momentum remains weak the November highs are secure as the final secondary top In this case, lower prices into December follow naturally. 3. The Message of the Structure (And more Charts to keep up on) The larger cycle has already ended. We are now watching the small-scale geometry that governs how the year will close: beneath the angle → distribution above the angle → December rally SUMMARY What remains now is the micro-geometry that will determine how the year closes: Beneath the declining angle → distribution continues Above the angle → a December rally opens toward 6,860 While the market could attempt to press toward new highs, the probability is very low — and would be surprising given the current economic backdrop and the clear contraction emerging from a dominant sector of the market. The structure, motion, and fundamentals all argue that the 2025 peak is already in.
SP:SPX
by Nana-Hermes
S&P 500 Roadmap: Correction Rally Ending—Another Drop Is ComingAs I expected in the previous idea , the S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) moved toward the broken Support lines and completed its pullback, reaching its targets. Given that the S&P 500 index nowadays shows a significant correlation with the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), it’s wise to pay even more attention to this index, as it can help us gauge the crypto market trends. The S&P 500 is approaching a Resistance zone($6,675_$6,637), and considering the momentum of last weekend’s decline, it appears that this recent upward movement is merely a correction. Therefore, we should expect another decline in the S&P 500. Since the U.S. dollar index( TVC:DXY ) is also likely to maintain an upward trend, the rise in the dollar can lead to more capital flowing into safer assets, potentially impacting the S&P 500 negatively. The S&P 500 is also influenced by the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield( TVC:US10 ). If the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield trends upwards , then riskier assets like cryptocurrencies might go down more, and this, in turn, could also impact the S&P 500. Considering all the above, I expect that the S&P 500 will at least test its Support zone($6,580_$6,490) again and, if that Support zone($6,580_$6,490) is broken, we could anticipate further declines in the U.S. stock market and the S&P 500. First Target: $6,526 Second Target: $6,413 Stop Los(SL): $6,731 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
3
SPX500 Short Deep crab pattern completes on M15, mapping a potential reversal zone. Multiple tops formed on M15 and M30 at the same area, reinforcing overhead supply from the prior day’s high that price could not break. RSI reached overbought on M15 and M30, indicating crowded long positioning. Approximately 20 points of RSI bearish divergence across M15 and M30, consistent with a weakening advance. H4 has turned down after last week’s rebound and now aligns with a downside continuation view. Daily slope is flattening and price is trading beneath it, suggesting the early stages of a broader reversal can develop if sellers follow through. Bias is short of the reversal zone identified by the deep crab and repeated tops. Stop loss set at 50 pips to cap risk if resistance fails. First target at 6,600, which is 100 pips from entry, with room to manage partials at nearby structure if momentum confirms. Several US indices and other global indices are printing similar topping behavior and momentum fades, adding intermarket confluence to the short idea.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by JavonDias_Trading
S&P500 rally to continue? The S&P 500 extended its rebound yesterday, rising +1.55% for its best session in six weeks and +2.54% over two days, helped by growing expectations of a Fed rate cut in two weeks. Sentiment was also lifted by renewed tech optimism and headlines suggesting progress in Ukraine ceasefire talks, which supported equities, credit, and bonds. In tech, Nvidia fell on reports Meta may shift billions in AI-chip spending toward Google, while Alphabet gained on stronger AI momentum. Geopolitical risk remains elevated as Russia and Ukraine traded heavy fire despite diplomatic activity, but markets are focusing on the possibility of de-escalation. Overall: Momentum remains constructive for the S&P today, with supportive macro drivers, but tech dispersion and geopolitics could create intraday volatility. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6770 Resistance Level 2: 6800 Resistance Level 3: 6823 Support Level 1: 6660 Support Level 2: 6640 Support Level 3: 6613 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by Trade Nation
S&P500 Final rally to 6925, then sell-off to 1D MA200?The S&P500 index (SPX) had a massive Friday rebound on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and yesterday touched again its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), this time as a Resistance. If it manages to break and close a 1D candle above it, we expect the current rebound to continue and evolve into the end-of-year rally and test at least the ATH Resistance at 6925. The 1D RSI sequence suggests that we may be currently inside a same pattern as the December 2024 - January 2025 fractal, which after a 1D MA100 rebound it hit the ATH Resistance again and then got heavily rejected back to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and beyond. As a result, after the rally, our medium-term Target is 6300 (expected contact with the 1D MA200). --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P500 H1 | Bearish Reaction Off Key ResistanceMomentum: Bearish Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud. Sell entry: 6,711.35 - Strong pullback resistance - 78.6% Fib retracement - 100% Fib projection Stop Loss: 6,785.20 - Overlap resistance Take Profit: 6,641.93 - Overlap support High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
TRADU:SPX500Short
by Tradu
4
Currency Peg Rates and Their Role in the Global Market1. What Are Currency Pegs? A currency peg is an agreement by a government or central bank to maintain its currency at a fixed exchange rate relative to another currency. Common anchors include: US Dollar (USD) – most dominant Euro (EUR) – used by countries in Europe or those influenced by EU trade A basket of currencies – used by nations wanting diversified stability Examples include: Hong Kong dollar peg to USD Saudi riyal peg to USD Danish krone peg to Euro In a pegged system, the central bank must intervene in the forex market—buying or selling foreign reserves—to maintain the peg. 2. Why Countries Use Currency Pegs A. To Promote Trade Stability Trade depends heavily on predictable currency values. When a country pegs its currency to that of a major trading partner, exporters and importers face fewer exchange-rate risks. This stability helps: Boost long-term trade agreements Encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) Reduce transaction costs For example, Gulf countries selling oil in USD benefit from a USD peg since their export revenues stay stable. B. To Control Inflation Countries with historically volatile monetary systems use pegs to “import stability” from stronger economies. Pegging to a disciplined currency forces domestic monetary policy to align with the anchor country’s stability. This helps: Reduce hyperinflation Maintain price stability Build investor trust Argentina, for instance, used a USD peg in the 1990s to curb runaway inflation. C. To Attract Foreign Investment Foreign investors prefer stable exchange rates. Pegs give clarity and reduce forex risk, which is appealing for: Portfolio investors Foreign companies setting up factories Global banks Stable currencies reduce uncertainty and encourage long-term investment. D. To Protect Small or Open Economies Small economies with limited export diversity or unstable political environments benefit greatly from a fixed currency. Pegs help maintain: Financial order Market confidence Predictable business conditions This is why many island nations and resource-dependent economies use fixed exchange rates. 3. How Currency Pegs Work in the Global Market A. Central Bank Intervention To maintain the peg, the central bank must buy or sell foreign reserves. If the domestic currency weakens, the central bank sells foreign reserves to support it. If it strengthens, the central bank buys foreign currency to prevent appreciation. This mechanism keeps the domestic currency within a defined band. B. The Role of Foreign Exchange Reserves Countries with pegs must maintain large forex reserves. These reserves act as a buffer to defend the peg during market volatility. China, Saudi Arabia, and Hong Kong maintain significant reserves for this reason. C. Impact on Global Capital Flows Pegs influence how money moves across borders. A stable peg can attract capital inflows, while a weak or unsustainable peg can trigger: Speculative attacks Rapid capital outflows Market panic The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis is a classic example where unsustainable fixed rates caused speculative attacks. 4. Advantages of Currency Pegs in the Global Market A. Stability for Trade and Investment Currency pegs reduce exchange-rate volatility, supporting international trade and long-term contracts. B. Confidence Building Investors and trading partners trust economies whose currencies behave predictably. C. Lower Inflation Pegs can anchor domestic prices to those of more stable economies. D. Strategic Trade Advantages Countries can peg at undervalued levels to maintain export competitiveness. China historically used a partially managed peg for this purpose. 5. Challenges and Risks Associated with Currency Pegs A. Loss of Monetary Policy Independence The biggest drawback is that a country cannot freely decide its interest rates. It must follow the monetary policy of the anchor country to maintain the peg. This can be problematic during domestic recessions or inflationary pressures. B. Requirement of Large Forex Reserves Defending a peg requires massive reserves, which is costly. Without sufficient reserves, the peg becomes vulnerable. C. Vulnerability to Speculative Attacks If traders believe a peg is unsustainable, they can short the currency. This can collapse the peg, as seen in: Thailand (1997) Mexico (1994) Argentina (2001) D. Economic Distortions A peg can create artificial stability. If the currency is pegged too high or too low, it can misrepresent true economic conditions, leading to: Trade imbalances Over-reliance on imports Asset bubbles 6. Currency Pegs and Global Economic Events A. During Oil Price Shocks Oil-exporting countries with USD pegs remain stable because oil is traded globally in dollars. Pegs help smooth revenue fluctuations. B. During Financial Crises Some countries break their pegs during crises to regain monetary control, while others defend their pegs to maintain confidence. C. During Global Inflation Waves When the anchor currency experiences inflation (e.g., USD inflation cycles), countries pegged to it import inflation as well. This can create stress on domestic economies. 7. How Pegs Influence Global Trade Dynamics Currency pegs can make countries more competitive in global markets. For example: If a currency is pegged at a lower level, exports become cheaper. If pegged too high, imports become cheaper but exports suffer. This can trigger global reactions, including tariff threats or currency war accusations. 8. The Future of Currency Pegs Even as digital currencies and floating rates dominate modern finance, currency pegs continue to play a vital role. Many countries rely on them for stability, while some use hybrid systems: Managed float with a peg band Basket-based pegging Pegged but adjustable systems With growing geopolitical tensions, shifts in trade alliances, and rising interest-rate cycles, pegs will remain influential tools in shaping global markets. Conclusion Currency peg rates are powerful tools that shape global economic behaviour. By tying a currency to a stable or strategically chosen anchor, countries can enhance trade stability, control inflation, and attract investment. However, they also face challenges such as loss of monetary independence, speculative risks, and heavy reliance on foreign reserves. In the global market, currency pegs are both stabilizers and potential sources of volatility—depending on how well they are maintained. Their importance will continue as countries navigate an increasingly interconnected and uncertain economic environment.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
US inflation makes its return this Thanksgiving week!For several weeks, financial markets have been operating with reduced visibility. The reason: the latest U.S. shutdown, which paralyzed part of the federal administration and caused an exceptional delay in the publication of numerous major macroeconomic statistics. Yet these figures, usually released according to a precise schedule, form the analytical backbone for investors and for the Federal Reserve (Fed). The situation should finally normalize during this Thanksgiving week, with a long-awaited catch-up, particularly regarding PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. One of the most notable delays concerns the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) series. The September report, originally scheduled for October 3, was only released last Thursday. The November report, normally published in early December, will not appear until December 16—after the Fed’s December 10 meeting. These delays are due to the need for U.S. statistical agencies to rebuild their data and validation processes after several weeks of forced shutdown. But the central focus of market attention remains the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index for October, a key figure for anticipating the Fed’s monetary stance at its December 10 meeting. This report was expected at the end of October under the standard Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) timeline. Now, several converging sources indicate a release expected this week, likely on November 25 and 26, as agencies finalize their revised calendar. It is therefore during Thanksgiving week that investors will finally receive these crucial numbers. The uncertainty does not end there. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for September and October have also been delayed. Markets now anticipate publication “late November to early December,” giving agencies time to fully adjust their distribution processes. Some components of the PPI, particularly for September, may be released as soon as November 25, with remaining figures following shortly after. This major catch-up comes at a decisive moment. With the Fed set to decide on December 10 about a potential adjustment to its monetary policy, every inflation data point carries considerable weight. The PCE numbers, in particular, will provide a clearer snapshot of price dynamics during the autumn, and therefore of the central bank’s room for maneuver should it consider a 0.25% rate cut. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote