US500.F trade ideas
SPX: trade should not be a weaponPositive sentiment continued on the US equity markets during the previous week, after stronger than expected US jobs data. The Non-farm payrolls posted on Friday reached 177K in April, which was significantly above the 130K expected by the market. The market estimate was significantly lower from March data, as analysts were expecting to see a spill over effect of the imposed trade tariffs. As the jobs market seems still quite strong, the positive market sentiment was intact during the week. However, the recession fears are still holding among investors. The S&P 500 continued its 9-days winning streak, ending the week at the level of 5.686.
On a positive side was the news that Chinese authorities are considering starting negotiations with the US Administration regarding trade tariffs. This was another positive boost for investors' sentiment. Berkshire Hathaway was holding shareholders annual meeting on Saturday, where the most attention of both media and investors was on the speech of its founder and famous investor, Warren Buffet. In his address to the shareholders, Buffet strongly criticized the trade tariffs, noting “Trade tariffs are an act of war … trade should not be a weapon’.
For the moment, it could be expected that the positive sentiment might continue also in the future period. However, the FOMC meeting and Fed rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, May 7th. This could be a day of higher volatility, as Fed Chair Powell will address the public at the press conference after the meeting. The markets will closely watch what he has to say regarding the current state of the US economy and potential rate cuts during the course of this year.
S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Correction Coming?S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Is the Correction Coming?
SP500 Reached the target of $5,680 - $5,800 and is going into correction along with Bitcoin 🤔.
Before:
After:
➖ The S&P 500 could fall to the 5100–5177 range due to the following fundamental factors:
FOMC Meeting on May 7: Expected rate hold and potentially hawkish rhetoric from Powell could amplify fears of rate hikes, hitting growth stocks.
➖ Trade War: Uncertainty in U.S.-China negotiations and risks of new tariffs threaten supply chains and corporate profits.
➖ Weak Economy: GDP contraction (-0.3% in Q1), recession fears, and weak PMI data fuel pessimism.
➖ Corporate Earnings: Disappointing guidance from key companies (e.g., Apple, Tesla) could trigger sell-offs.
➖ Sentiment on X: Bearish sentiment reflects market caution.
➖ Global Risks: Retaliatory tariffs and rising gold prices signal a flight from U.S. assets.
Assumption: If the Fed on May 7 emphasizes inflation risks and delays rate cuts, and tariff news remains negative, the S&P 500 could break support at 5500 and reach 5100–5177 within 1–2 weeks, especially amid technical selling and market panic.
$SPX Sell in May, Go Away, $5k, Dead Cat to $5.3k, $4.8k by EOMAlrighty. My forecast is as follows. I made a video explaining just a quick thought and here's the video in a written version for the most part. Basically, I'm a pattern chart trader and I spend the majority of my days looking for specific candlestick patterns that match candle for candle. I cannot find anything remotely close to today's Price Action besides October 2001. I have been and will continue to be doubted and that's okay. I am not here for anyone except myself and anyone that wants to gain a fresh unbiased perspective. People have called me a Permabear but that only pertains to my personality, which is that of a realist. I do not believe investing for the next 20-50 Years will work for everyone. You'd have to do it well and continuously contribute even during the down days. Either way. This is the analog I will be following. Fib is Extended way beyond Blow Off Top measurements imo. The market gained 50% in One Year and Three Months. I'd like to think that the uncertainty being priced in will cause these Deeper Fib Retracements. We already crashed down to the 1.61 GOLDEN POCKET from above and now bounce back to Secon Golden Pocket at 2.61. Based on the past behavior, now we move back to 2.0 for a move to the original extension of the 1.00 Fib. If we lose this, we start moving back to the 1.27 near $4.74k on SPX where I will then be looking for one final dead cat to $5300 by mid August, Every July dip being grabbed up ... Final Sell in August for an End of Year Crash to Mark 2025 as one of the worst years ever in Life as far as the Market goes. Good Luck everyone. Tips always welcome.
To the Moon: Space Isn't Just for Billionaires. It's for You TooTo your parents, getting involved in space meant joining NASA, becoming an astronaut, or — more realistically — building a scale model of the Saturn V and telling them you wanted to be "just like Neil Armstrong."
Today? You don’t need a PhD, perfect vision, or the ability to survive on dehydrated ice cream. The economics of orbit is accessible from your screen through the shares of publicly listed companies.
While billionaires are busy trying to out-flex each other in orbit, there’s a rapidly growing group of public companies that you can use as a launchpad to space exposure.
Let's explore (pun intended) how space is no longer science fiction only — it's an economic sector you can trade.
🚀 SpaceX: The Giant with a Gravitational Field
First, let’s get this out of the way: SpaceX is still private. Elon Musk’s rocket-powered unicorn dominates the headlines — and deservedly so. The company is launching Starlink satellites by the hundreds, winning NASA contracts, and discussing building cities on Mars where we can move and grow space potatoes.
But unless you have deep VC connections or you run a private equity fund, you can’t buy SpaceX stock yet. (Cue the tiny violin.) According to private-market estimates, SpaceX boasts a valuation of $350 billion, making it the world’s most expensive private company.
What you can do is invest in companies that supply, compete with, or benefit from the SpaceX era. Here are a few ideas.
🛸 Rocket Lab NASDAQ:RKLB : The Mini-SpaceX
If SpaceX is the Goliath of orbital launches, Rocket Lab is the David — except instead of a slingshot, it's using the Electron rocket and prepping the bigger Neutron.
Rocket Lab specializes in small satellite launches — think communications, Earth observation, climate monitoring. The company is cheaper, faster, and more frequent than the heavy-lifters like Falcon 9 by SpaceX. If you’re bullish on the boom in low-Earth orbit activity, Rocket Lab could be the small-cap rocket you can strap your portfolio to.
Bonus points — it’s not just a launch company. Rocket Lab, valued at around $10 billion, is expanding into satellite manufacturing, in-orbit services, and deep space missions.
👽 Intuitive Machines NASDAQ:LUNR : Houston, We Have a Moonshot
With a ticker symbol NASDAQ:LUNR — obviously leaning into the Moon theme — Intuitive is all about lunar landers and space infrastructure. The company is part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, helping deliver payloads (science experiments, rovers, tech gizmos) to the Moon.
In the absence of crypto moons, these guys are aiming for the real thing.
But be warned: Intuitive is a true moonshot investment. As recently as March, the company's moon lander, Athena, couldn't pull off a stellar touchdown and its shares nosedived roughly 60%. Year to date, the stock is down 55%.
The startup is pioneering in a market that doesn’t quite exist yet at scale. Revenues are coming in phases, tied to contracts, with success as lumpy as a Moon crater. In a nutshell? It's a high-risk, high-reward kind of ride.
Still — if you're looking for an early, pure-play exposure to the Moon economy, Intuitive Machines, valued at just $1.5 billion, is basically as close as you can get.
🌟 Northrop Grumman NYSE:NOC : The Silent Space Titan
While Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines get the Reddit buzz, Northrop Grumman keeps a low profile, winning contracts and building stuff that actually gets yeeted into space.
The company is deeply involved in NASA’s Artemis program, manufacturing boosters for the Space Launch System (SLS) — the rocket that’s supposed to return humans to the Moon. It also makes satellite systems, missile defense tech, and stealthy aerospace goodies for the US government.
Northrop isn’t going to quadruple overnight on a meme rally — it’s worth just under $70 billion. But it provides serious, steady exposure to the high-stakes space game — with dividends. It’s the choice for traders who like their moonshots with a side of mature risk management.
✨ Lockheed Martin NYSE:LMT : Space Cowboys in Business Suits
Lockheed Martin isn’t just the F-35 fighter jet company. It also builds the Orion spacecraft — NASA’s chosen ride for deep space missions, including Mars (if Elon doesn’t get there first).
Lockheed’s space division covers everything from weather satellites to missile warning systems. The company, worth around $111 billion, has been in the space race before Jeff Bezos came up with Blue Origin and way before Musk founded SpaceX.
Think of Lockheed like the expert-level astronaut: calm, collected, and still racking up mission hours while everyone else is learning which button not to press.
💫 Boeing NYSE:BA : Sometimes Up, Sometimes… Not So Much
Boeing’s Starliner capsule is supposed to ferry astronauts to the International Space Station. Supposed to. It’s been delayed more times than your average budget airline flight.
The astronauts that were stuck in space for nine months? Riding a Starliner that failed during docking (the mission was supposed to be a ten-day roundtrip). So Musk’s SpaceX had to intervene and bring those two space explorers back to earth in March.
Still, despite technical hiccups and PR headaches, Boeing remains heavily involved in the space economy. It builds rockets, satellites, and space station modules. Even when it trips, it trips forward — thanks to government contracts and industrial clout.
If you can stomach some turbulence, Boeing, worth $134 billion, offers another angle on the space trade.
🌙 RTX NYSE:RTX : Watching the Skies
You may not think "space" when you hear RTX (formerly Raytheon), but you should. The company builds sensors, satellites, and missile tracking systems — vital components of the US space and defense apparatus.
Space isn’t just about launching astronauts and rovers; it's about surveillance, communications, and security. RTX, valued at a whopping $168 billion, plays behind the scenes, helping make space a battlefield for signals, not soldiers.
Steady, profitable, and sneakily important, RTX is the stealth bomber of space stocks.
🪐 Other Orbit-Worthy Notables
Outside of the headliners, there’s a growing constellation of companies playing critical roles in space commerce:
Redwire NYSE:RDW : In-space manufacturing and tech solutions.
Blacksky Technology NYSE:BKSY : Real-time satellite imagery and analytics.
Virgin Galactic NYSE:SPCE : Richard Branson’s waning dream of space tourism, working to make suborbital flights a regular experience (careful, though, the stock is down 99.9% from peak).
☄️ Your Portfolio Doesn't Have to Stay on Earth
Space is no longer just a billionaire’s playground or a sci-fi dream. It's an investable theme — one that covers exploration, infrastructure, defense, data, and connectivity.
Sure, the sector is volatile. There will be delays, explosions (hopefully unmanned), stock swings, and moments where it all seems like an expensive science experiment. But there’s also real innovation, massive contracts, and a trillion-dollar economy forming right above our heads.
The thing is, while the biggest names in tech make the headlines and get daily coverage , you won’t see those space companies featured on the front page of big financial journals or covered in the weekly take of your financial podcast.
Traders who are serious about catching the big moves before they blast off should keep one tool close: the earnings calendar . These companies’ quarterly reports highlight progress, revenue, profit or loss figures, and present forward-looking guidance to act as a compass to traders and investors.
The economics of space isn’t just exciting because it’s shiny and futuristic — it’s exciting because the groundwork is being laid quietly, deal by deal, launch by launch. And the traders who are paying attention before the crowd shows up? They’re the ones best positioned for lift-off.
Your turn : Are you already investing in the space economy? Did we miss any names in there? Tell us — what’s your favorite way to reach for the stars? ✨🚀🌔
US500 at Critical Resistance - Weekly Chart Breakdown📊 US500 Weekly Chart Analysis
Taking a close look at the US500 on the weekly timeframe, we can see price has now traded directly into a bearish weekly order block 🧱 — a key distribution zone where smart money activity often emerges. At this level, the market is trading at a premium 💰 and appears to be overextended 📈.
⚠️ From a risk management standpoint, I’d advise extreme caution — the current conditions could set the stage for a sharp retracement, especially as we approach week’s end. This level aligns with areas where institutional players may look to offload risk or reverse exposure.
🔁 A potential pullback from here would not be surprising, given the elevated context and technical structure.
📚 This breakdown is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either.
Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet.
They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now.
Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence.
So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high.
If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario.
Grega
Bullish continuation?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that line sup with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 6,520.93
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,434.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,791.21
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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Important structure reached FridayThe trendline structure from the top was reached FRiday and I believe we may rally back to it at open but fail. There are a LOT of traders calling for a test of the 200 ma again, but I'm not sure it will actually occur. Vix also did not fill it's gap on Friday which could be interpreted as bullish for the VIX
05/05 SPX Weekly Playbook - GEX Zone Outlook🔮 What-If Scenarios for This Week – Based on GEX Structure until Firday
Last week’s market momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by almost 3%, effectively erasing the price gap left behind on Liberation Day. The index also strung together nine straight days of gains—something we haven’t seen since late 2004.
Meanwhile, implied volatility dropped significantly, with the VIX touching its lowest level since the holiday, falling to around 22.5.
Several factors seem to have fueled this bullish tone, including a more measured approach from Trump on trade policies and strong quarterly results from major tech names like Microsoft and Meta.
Still, the nature of the buying raises questions—was this a thoughtful rotation, or just a broad sweep of optimism?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
🔄 Chop Zone: 5650 – 5670 (wide transition zone)
🔹 Gamma Flip: 5615
🔺 Key Call Wall: 5725 (5800 potential shift)
🔻 Key Put Wall: 5500 (5400 major support below)
🔼 Upside Path
IF > 5670 → transition cleared →
➡️ 5700 stall / reaction
IF > 5725 → call wall breached →
➡️ Path to 5750 / 5775 → stall at 5800 (largest net call OI)
IF > 5800 → gamma resistance breaks down →
➡️ 5825/5850 zone opens up
🔽 Downside Path
IF < 5615 → gamma flip triggered →
➡️ 5500 = battle zone (massive put wall + high negative GEX)
IF < 5500 → negative gamma squeeze likely →
➡️ Stall zone: 5450 → flush to 5400
IF < 5400 → high-volatility regime →
➡️ Possible acceleration to 5375 / 5340 depending on IV spike
⚖️ Neutral Setup
IF 5650–5670 holds → dealer hedging = balanced →
➡️ Ideal for non-directional spreads / theta plays
➡️ Wait for breakout confirmation above 5670 or below 5615
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
🔍 Final Thoughts
We’ve seen a sharp rally since the Trump trade war scare, with barely any meaningful pullback. The market appears to be looking for one—as a breath. Based on current GEX positioning, there’s significantly more downside hedging than upside, especially in the mid-term May expirations.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we crash—but it does mean that moves lower can accelerate faster, while upward breakouts may require more energy or time. In this environment, consider:
Bearish or neutral spreads (put debit spreads, call credit spreads)
Volatility-based strategies
Avoiding naked upside trades unless we see a strong reclaim of 5725+
Stay safe and adapt—GEX doesn’t tell direction, but it does tell where the fire might start, beacuse of reflexting to hedging activity.
SPX Continues to Rise After FOMC DecisionThe U.S. index has been gaining more than 2% in recent trading sessions, and the bullish bias has remained intact since the Federal Reserve’s decision during yesterday’s session. The central bank once again opted to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5%. However, according to some comments, Chairman Powell mentioned that the economy is approaching a point where it may soon be appropriate to begin cutting interest rates. This has fueled expectations of future rate cuts and has helped sustain confidence in equity indices over the short term.
Uptrend: Since April 9, a new short-term uptrend has been consistently forming, with price movements holding above the 5,000-point mark. However, the price is now approaching a key resistance level, and as long as this barrier holds, it could lead to short-term neutrality in recent price action.
ADX: The ADX line has been falling sharply in recent sessions and is now nearing the neutral 20 level. This indicates a lack of sustained volatility in recent price moves. If the ADX remains at these levels, it could reinforce a period of consolidation or range-bound movement in the short term.
RSI: The RSI line remains consistently above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that buying momentum still dominates in the short term. However, as the RSI approaches the overbought level near 70, this could open the door for short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels:
5,750 points – Nearby resistance: This level coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. A breakout above this zone could strengthen the bullish bias and support a more sustained uptrend.
5,540 points – Nearby support: This level aligns with the 50-period moving average and may serve as a potential zone for bearish corrections to unfold.
5,370 points – Critical support: This level aligns with the short-term ascending trendline. A drop below this support could jeopardize the current bullish structure in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
S&P 500 Monthly : Major Correction or Reloading Phase?Wavervanir_International_LLC | May 7, 2025
The S&P 500 may have just completed a long-wave ABC correction on the monthly chart. Price rejected the 0.886 Fib zone (~5693) and is now printing bearish momentum with a distribution-style volume spike.
🔍 Bearish View (65%)
Wave (C) likely peaked.
Momentum divergence + high-volume rejection.
Target zone: 4611 (0.5 Fib + prior structure support).
📈 Bullish View (35%)
Higher low above 5400 + clean breakout above 5700 could target 6144.
📊 Market at an inflection point—watch liquidity, macro signals, and Fed tone closely.
#SPX #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #ElliottWave #Macro #BearishOutlook #BullishScenario #TradingView #Wavervanir
Pre Market Video - the 2 channelsWe are close to the bottom of the uptrend channel. If they can't hold 5580 we will likely start a move down to 5400, the bottom of the blue channel. I expect a fight and attemt to hold 5600 today after open, but personally I think it will fail. There is a possibility of one more move up to the Bollinger Band (at least), so keep that in mind.
The Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy EconThe Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy Economy
For decades, the American economy has been celebrated as the epicenter of innovation, wealth creation, and corporate success. But beneath the surface, an unsettling reality has emerged: The U.S. financial markets are increasingly driven by speculation, hype, and a distorted sense of value.
"Buy Now, Pay Later"—A Culture of Delusion
One of the most glaring symptoms of this detachment from reality is the widespread adoption of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services. A staggering number of American consumers have embraced debt-financed spending as a normal part of life. Credit cards are no longer the primary vehicle for financial mismanagement—BNPL systems have convinced people they can afford luxuries they fundamentally cannot.
This mentality, in turn, feeds into the stock market’s obsession with future promises over actual output. Investors have become infatuated with narratives rather than numbers, driving valuations to unrealistic highs for companies that either underdeliver or simply do nothing at all.
The MicroStrategy Paradox: Borrowing Money to Buy Bitcoin
Take MicroStrategy, for example—a company whose sole business model seems to be leveraging borrowed capital to buy Bitcoin. By traditional metrics, MicroStrategy offers no tangible product, no innovative service, no groundbreaking technology—just speculative accumulation. Yet, thanks to Bitcoin hype, its stock price is valued as if it’s a revolutionary player in the corporate world.
This irrational valuation mirrors the broader issue with American markets: Companies are being rewarded not for what they actually do, but for the financial games they play.
The Myth of Overvalued Titans: Tesla & Meta
Tesla and Meta serve as the poster children of speculative overvaluation.
- Tesla: Once hailed as an automotive disruptor, Tesla’s stock price often reflects what Elon Musk promises rather than what Tesla delivers. From self-driving software that never fully materialized to mass production goals that fell flat, Tesla’s ability to sustain its valuation relies more on Musk’s cult-like following than automotive success. Meanwhile, the gutting of regulatory oversight has allowed Tesla to push unfinished, potentially hazardous products into the market.
- Meta: Meta’s valuation has ballooned largely on the promise of virtual reality dominance. Yet, billions poured into the Metaverse have yielded little beyond overpriced VR headsets and gimmicky social spaces.
Elon Musk: The Master of Market Manipulation
Elon Musk’s influence on financial markets cannot be overstated. Through cryptic tweets, grand promises, and regulatory maneuvering, Musk has become a force powerful enough to shift markets with mere words. Whether it’s pumping Dogecoin, slashing Tesla’s safety oversight, or influencing government policy for personal gain, Musk operates in a reality where market value is dictated by his persona rather than corporate fundamentals.
The Rise of True Value Markets
While the U.S. economy indulges in financial fantasy, other global markets have started to present compelling opportunities:
- Europe: A more realistic, fundamentals-based approach to valuation is emerging. Traditional industries remain resilient, and companies must show actual profitability to attract investment.
- China: Despite regulatory challenges, China’s focus on industrial production, technological advancement, and infrastructure development gives its economy a sense of tangible progress.
- UK & Australia: Unlike the speculative U.S. markets, these economies remain grounded in earnings, productivity, and rational valuations.
Conclusion
The American financial landscape has become a speculative playground detached from reality. Companies are valued not for what they produce, but for what they promise, what they borrow, and what narratives they spin. Figures like Musk exploit market sentiment, while deregulation enables corporations to operate recklessly. As Europe, China, the UK, and Australia foster economies built on real value, the U.S. is at risk of crashing under the weight of its illusions.
SP:SPX TVC:DXY INDEX:BTCUSD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:BLK NASDAQ:META XETR:DAX FTSE:UKX TVC:HSI SET:SQ NASDAQ:PYPL NASDAQ:AFRM NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:HOOD
SPX 1st rejection1st rejection of last week's close. I say mark the zone and be cautious. Key levels will be targets (daily hi & lo minimum). If your hit targets, take profit. when aiming above, take the trade from a support level or specific candle shift.
Again... FOMC Wed 5/7. Will update my thoughts daily this week.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index demonstrated a steady to higher price movement, achieving a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5550 and successfully surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5672. This trajectory establishes the foundation for sustained upward momentum as it approaches the Mean Resistance level of 5778 and sets sights on reaching the next Outer Index Rally target marked at 5945. However, it is essential to acknowledge the substantial risk of a sharp retracement from the current price level to the Mean Support level of 5601, with the potential for further decline to the Mean Support level of 5525.