USDGBP trade ideas
DeGRAM | GBPUSD preparing for a correction📊 Technical Analysis
● Cable is pressing the rising-channel ceiling together with the March swing-high supply at 1.378-1.380; successive long-upper-wicks plus fading 4 h RSI signal bull exhaustion at this dual resistance.
● A tiny evening-star has formed inside the pink resistance band and price is slipping back under the broken inner trend-line; first objective is the former breakout shelf / median line near 1.360, with the lower rail and April pivot at 1.343 next in view.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● UK election blackout, soft retail-sales surprise and firmer month-end USD funding bids narrow the short-rate gap again, sapping fresh sterling demand.
✨ Summary
Short 1.374-1.380; sustain below 1.360 opens 1.343. Bear view void on a 4 h close above 1.380.
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GBPUSD InsightHello to all subscribers,
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Key Points
- According to the ADP National Employment Report, U.S. private employment in June decreased by 33,000 compared to the previous month — the first negative figure since March 2023. This has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts.
- U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a trade agreement has been reached with Vietnam. Reportedly, Vietnam has agreed to significantly lower its tariffs to 20% in exchange for opening its market. This has raised hopes for progress in ongoing trade negotiations with other countries.
- The EU trade team is currently in Washington, D.C., negotiating with the U.S. side and is reportedly requesting preemptive tariff exemptions in certain sectors.
- In the U.K., the welfare reform plan proposed by the Labour government has been significantly scaled back. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has not confirmed his confidence in Chancellor Rachel Reeves, leading to growing speculation that she may be replaced. If Reeves — who has emphasized fiscal discipline — is replaced, there are concerns that fiscal control could loosen.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ July 3: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (June), U.S. Unemployment Rate (June)
GBPUSD Chart Analysis
After maintaining an upward trend, GBPUSD experienced a sharp drop. However, the pair appears to have regained its bullish momentum with support from the trendline. The upward view will be maintained toward the resistance level of 1.40000, the trend’s previous high.
That said, caution is advised near the 1.38000 level, where the previous sharp decline occurred, as this zone could introduce volatility.
Political Uncertainty, Dollar Weakness & A Projected CorrectionDespite being a technical trader, there are some fundamental factors floating in the background of today's trading idea.
1) We saw weakness on the GBP today due to some political uncertainty & investors having concerns over the stability of the UK's leadership and economic direction.
2) We saw a drop in the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for the US Dollar today which is starting to look like a trend rather than a one-off.
Why this is important is because, despite the very bearish day that the FX:GBPUSD had today, I don't think the GBP reaction is as relevant as it's shown and I do think the USD is weaker than it's shown on this particular chart, due to the reactions that we've seen on other crosses.
All in all, that this means is that I wouldn't be shocked to see today's move corrected and price is at the perfect technical level to do just that.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions, please don't hesitate to leave them below.
Akil
GBPUSD: Targeting 1.4200 Swing Move Target! Swing Trading GBPUSD: We’ve identified a key reversal zone where our long-term take-profit target is set at 1.4200. This is a long-term approach, but in the short term, we could target 1.3900, which is a reasonable take-profit area. Before taking any buying entry, please do your own analysis.
Good luck and trade safely!
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Market next target 🔀 Disruption Analysis – Bullish Alternative Scenario
While the current chart outlines a bearish scenario after a short-term bullish correction, leading to a drop toward the target near 1.36600, here’s how a bullish disruption could unfold instead:
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🟢 Bullish Disruption Possibility:
1. False Breakdown / Bear Trap:
The market may dip slightly below recent lows to trigger sell stops and liquidity grab, then reverse upward.
If price finds strong buying interest around 1.3690–1.3700, it could spark a bullish reversal.
2. Strong Rejection Candles:
Watch for bullish engulfing or pin bar formations on lower timeframes (15m or 30m) near the dip area.
These would signal loss of bearish momentum.
3. Break of Lower High Structure:
A break above 1.3720 would shift short-term market structure to bullish.
It could lead to a move toward 1.3750–1.3780.
4. Macro Fundamentals:
Hawkish BOE comments or weak U.S. data could reverse USD strength, lifting GBP/USD.
GBPUSD opportunity to go SHORTThe pair has been showing weakness for some time through RSI divergence.
On hourly chart it printed the indecision candle followed by two red candles. This gives us the cue for bearish momentum.
Since we need multiple reasons to short sell so we identify the recent low and if the price goes lower than this than we initiate a short trade.
For ready reference the TPs have been marked on chart.
wishing you a PROFIT-able trading.
GBPUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.370.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.378 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GU: Asian highs > Previous Day Low?Hi everyone,
Here is my forecast this morning for GBPUSD. Overall I'm thinking bearish, but I reckon that price could take out the Asian range highs first and then give us a bearish leg towards the previous day low.
Regards,
Aman | SMC Wolf FX
1-1 student onboarding is currently open (website in my signature & profile)
GBP/USD Tactical Shift: Long Closed, Short Bias ActivatedAfter successfully capturing the upside move on GBP/USD, price has now reached a key resistance zone where bullish momentum appears to be fading. The recent price action shows signs of exhaustion, with lower highs forming near the top and a noticeable slowdown in buying pressure.
This shift in structure suggests a potential reversal opportunity. I'm now positioning for a short setup, anticipating a corrective move as sellers begin to step in. The risk is clearly defined above the recent highs, with downside targets aligned with previous reaction zones and intraday support levels.
This transition from long to short reflects a dynamic response to evolving market conditions—focused, disciplined, and opportunity-driven.
GBPUSD's strong uptrend continuesGBPUSD is in a strong uptrend, Price has just broken the resistance zone of 1.37500.
All the bullish momentum is heading towards the resistance zone of 1.388.
If there is a close of the h4 candle below the resistance zone of 1.375, there will likely be a Pullback to 1.363 to find more buying momentum towards the target at the resistance zone of 1.388
📈 Key Levels
Support: 1.375-1.363
Resistance: 1.388
📊 Recommended Trade Setups
BUY GBPUSD 1.375-1.373 Stoploss 1.37000
BUY GBPUSD 1.363-1.361 Stoploss 1.35800
SELL GBPUSD 1.388-1.390 Stoploss 1.39300
GBPUSD - Bullish Channel (TCB Strategy)📈 GBPUSD – Falling Wedge Breakout Within Bullish Channel (TCB Strategy)
Type: Trend → Countertrend → Breakout
Timeframe: 1H
Status: Trade Running
🔍 Analysis Summary:
GBPUSD is respecting a strong ascending channel, with a recent correction forming a textbook falling wedge pattern. Price has now broken out of the wedge with bullish momentum during the NY session, signaling a potential continuation toward the upper boundary of the channel.
This setup aligns perfectly with my TCB Strategy:
Trend: Bullish market structure intact
Countertrend: Falling wedge correction
Breakout: Clean bullish breakout above wedge resistance
🧠 Trade Plan:
Entry (EP1): 1.37350 (Breakout entry)
SL: 1.36850 (below wedge low)
TP1: 1.37600
TP2: 1.38200 (channel top)
🛠️ Checklist Score: ✅ 100%
All criteria met, including session timing, structure confluence, breakout candle quality, and risk-reward profile.
📌 Watching how price reacts around 1.37600. Clean break above that could open the path to 1.38200+.
Follow for updates.
#GBPUSD #ForexAnalysis #TCBStrategy #BreakoutSetup #FallingWedge #PriceAction
GBPUSD Long, 1 JulyPrice is reacting from a Daily bearish OB, but this setup aims to catch the pullback — making a long valid here despite HTF structure.
LTF gave a clean 15m BOS, followed by reaction from the extreme 15m OB.
Entry was taken after a confirmed 1m BOS + OB retrace, in alignment with structure and location.
🎯 Target: 30 pips (1:3 RR)
⚠️ No clear Asia target, but structure favors this move
📍Entry: 1m OB after BOS
📉 Risk: 0.5%
High-probability pullback play, executed with confirmation and clean structure.
GU-Tue-01/07/25 TDA-Strong resistance area approaching 1.37500Analysis done directly on the chart
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Timing!
You might ask yourself why sometimes your
trade idea was good but still ended up hitting your sl before it moves to your direction.
The reason is simple: Timing.
price is just not ready to push at that time
and needed extra liquidity and structure before it finally has the force to push.
Understanding when the market is ready is one of the most difficult thing for a trader to do but with experience you start to understand better and improve.
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Active in London session!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y