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USDGBP trade ideas

GBPUSD SELL TRADE PLAN ## 🔥 GBPUSD – August 7, 2025 --- ### 📋 Trade Overview Table | Parameter | Details | | ----------------- | --------------------------------------- | | 🛠️ Type | Reversal from HTF Supply | | 📈 Direction | **SELL** | | 🎯 R\:R Potential | \~1:3 to 1:5 | | ✅ Confidence | **85% - High Probability** | | ⏳ Status | 🔄 **Conditional Setup (Awaiting Tap)** | --- ### 📈 Market Bias & Type **Type**: Bearish Reversal **Bias**: Market is rallying into a fresh H4 + D1 supply zone after a strong bearish leg. Structure points to a high-probability reversal setup on confirmation. --- ### 🔰 Confidence Level **Total**: 85% **Breakdown**: * HTF Supply Zone Confluence (D1 + H4): ✅ * Fresh, unmitigated supply zone: ✅ * Price nearing structural origin with liquidity above: ✅ * Pending bearish PA confirmation: 🔄 * Volume/Exhaustion signals awaited: 🔄 --- ### 📍 Entry Zones | Zone | Timeframe | Range | Score | Status | | ------------ | --------- | ----------------- | ----- | --------------- | | 🔵 Primary | D1 | **1.3400–1.3440** | 9/10 | 🔄 Awaiting Tap | | 🟢 Secondary | H4 | **1.3388–1.3422** | 8/10 | 🔄 Awaiting Tap | 👉 **Confirmation-based entry only** — price must enter zone and show clear bearish structure on M15/H1 --- ### ❗ Stop Loss (SL) **SL**: 1.3450 🔒 Placed above the higher boundary of the D1 supply zone with buffer — prevents invalidation via liquidity sweep. --- ### 🎯 Take Profit Targets | 🎯 TP | Price | Description | | ----- | ---------- | --------------------------- | | TP1 | **1.3280** | Internal liquidity grab | | TP2 | 1.3190 | Mid H4 demand zone support | | TP3 | 1.3120 | Structural swing low target | --- ### 🧠 Management Strategy * Risk: Max 0.5–1.0% per execution * Scale-in on M15 reversal structure (BOS + entry trigger) * SL to BE after TP1 hit * Partial close at TP2 * Trail below structure for runner to TP3 if momentum follows through --- ### ⚠️ Confirmation Checklist ✅ Setup valid only when **ALL** conditions below are met: * Price enters **1.3388–1.3440** * M15/H1 bearish engulfing or wick rejections * M5/M15 BOS confirming internal shift * Volume divergence or wick exhaustion * London/NY overlap session preferred --- ### ⏳ Validity Window * ⏰ H1-Based: Valid for 12 hours * ⏰ H4-Based: Valid for 48 hours * 🕒 Setup invalid after expiration without tap + trigger --- ### ❌ Invalidation Conditions * ❌ H1/H4 close above 1.3450 * ❌ New HH/HL structure on H4 * ❌ BoE/Fed surprise policy statement before entry --- ### 🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot * **Bank of England** expected to **cut interest rates** from 4.25% to 4.00% due to weakening labour data and falling inflation (\~3.6%) * UK economy showing signs of contraction: PMI weakening, business sentiment at post-Brexit lows, unemployment ticking up to 4.7% * Wage growth flattening — further reducing pressure on BoE to remain hawkish * IMF and OECD have downgraded UK GDP growth forecasts to \~1.2% for 2025 * **US economy** remains structurally stronger despite signs of softening in ISM Services; Fed likely to stay restrictive but cautious * Yield differentials between US and UK bonds still favour USD * Broad sentiment remains bearish on GBP due to macro divergence and monetary policy expectations 📊 **Summary**: Fundamentals align with a bearish GBPUSD outlook — favoring short opportunities at key HTF zones --- ### 📋 Final Trade Summary GBPUSD is approaching high-probability reversal territory at **1.3388–1.3440** D1/H4 supply confluence. Fundamentals strongly favor the USD over the GBP due to dovish BoE expectations, slowing UK data, and a stronger US macro profile. Entry to be executed **only after bearish confirmation**, with clear management rules and risk control in place. Confidence remains **high at 85%** for reversal setup.
Short
by jibkhan111
GBPUSD Massive Short! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for GBPUSD is below: The market is trading on 1.3309 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.3295 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.3316 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
GBPUSD LONGCheck comment for multi-timeframe clean layout due to TradingViews publishing restriction. M5T screenshot also attached. Price reacting from weekly demand, as mapped out in Monday’s post. Still expecting a bullish move — unless 4H supply holds again. Today, demand showed strength across timeframes. 5M demand held firm, aligning with 4H demand. Waited for price to return to the 5M zone, then dropped to 15s for entry. Tapped out after 3RR was achieved — no more, no less. same system, same pair Data never lies.
Long
by Protecttheworld
2
Support & Resistance – Quick Guide In 5 StepsSupport and resistance are key concepts in technical analysis that help traders identify where price is likely to react. Support acts like a floor — a level where buying interest is strong enough to prevent further declines. Resistance acts like a ceiling — a level where selling pressure can stop price from rising. These zones often lead to bounces, reversals, or breakouts, and are used to plan entries, exits, and stop-losses. How to Identify them: 1. Assess the chart. 2. Identify Swing Points: Look for repeated highs/lows and label them. (Flags) 3. Multiple touches: Highlight the zones with multiple touches. 2+ Touches are stronger. 4. Define: Clearly define the zones. Above is resistance, below is support. 5. Entry: When price makes it way down to support, wait for the reversal. Upon reversal enter on the low time confirmation. Ensure price has failed to break below the support. Then set TP to the previous High/Resistance zone. Tips: Always treat S&R as zones, not exact lines. Combine with trend, candlestick patterns, or volume for better confluences. Avoid trading into strong S/R — wait for breaks or retests.
Education
by King_BennyBag
34
Understanding Trend Reversals: Switch Levels & Peak Formations EAs traders, one of our biggest challenges is identifying the trend and recognizing when it's rolling over to form a peak formation. In this video, I’ll give you a quick yet powerful introduction to the theory behind switch levels and peak formations — key concepts for understanding trend strength, spotting reversal zones, and determining when a high or low is potentially locked in. Whether you’re a beginner or refining your strategy, this video will help you better develop your bias by recognizing when a trend is losing momentum. 📌 Topics Covered: What are Switch Levels? Identifying Peak Formations How to Confirm a Locked-In High or Low Reading Trend Strength and Shift Signals
Education
by TC888
2
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Rebounds CautiouslyMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Rebounds Cautiously GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.3215 resistance. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today - The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.3265. - There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 1.3375 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. GBP/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of GBP/USD, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.3600 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound even traded below the 1.3350 support against the US Dollar. Finally, the pair tested the 1.3140 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3215. The pair even climbed above the 1.3265 level. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3385 swing high to the 1.3141 low. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3375. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 1.3375 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3385 swing high to the 1.3141 low. The next major resistance is near 1.3385. A close above the 1.3385 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.3450. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.3550. On the downside, there is decent support forming at 1.3265. If there is a downside break below 1.3265, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is near the 1.3215 level. The next key support is seen near 1.3140, below which the pair could test 1.3050. Any more losses could lead the pair toward 1.3000. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
GBPUSD Holds Gains on Dovish BOE, Tariff & Fed RisksThe GBPUSD chart setup is also currently positioned in a bearish structure. It continues to trade below the trendline connecting peaks from July 2023 to September 2024. Additionally, it recently broke below the neckline of a potential head and shoulders pattern, now testing the midpoint target at the 1.3140 support. Should a decisive close occur below that level, the pattern could continue unfolding toward the next support at 1.2940. Further weakness may follow towards the trendline connecting lower peaks since 2008 (near 1.2740) is the 1.2940 level fails to hold. On the upside, if the pair closes firmly above the neckline and clears the 1.330 resistance, gains could extend toward key 2023–2024 resistance levels at 1.36 and 1.38, potentially paving the way for new 2025 highs. - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
The Day AheadChatGPT said: Market Summary – Wednesday, August 6 Key Data Releases: UK July Construction PMI and Eurozone July Construction PMI provide fresh insight into construction sector momentum amid rate cut hopes. Germany June Factory Orders and Italy June Industrial Production offer signals on European industrial resilience. France Q2 Private Payrolls and Eurozone June Retail Sales help gauge consumer and labor market strength. Japan June Labor Cash Earnings may influence BoJ expectations on wage-led inflation. Central Banks: Fed’s Cook and Collins are scheduled to speak—investors will listen closely for clues on the Fed’s policy stance amid rising speculation of a rate cut. Corporate Earnings: Heavy day for earnings across sectors: Tech & Consumer Platforms: Shopify, Airbnb, Duolingo, Lyft, DoorDash, Uber Media & Entertainment: Walt Disney, DraftKings Pharma & Healthcare: Novo Nordisk, Bayer, Generali Energy: Siemens Energy, Occidental Petroleum, Energy Transfer, NRG Energy Financials: Thomson Reuters, Commerzbank, Carlyle, Global Payments, Vonovia Industrials & Materials: CRH, Emerson Electric, Rockwell Automation, Glencore, Honda Motor Cybersecurity & Tech: Fortinet, AppLovin Auctions: The US 10-year Treasury auction will be closely watched for demand signals, especially as bond markets weigh the timing of potential rate cuts. Conclusion: A data-rich and earnings-heavy day with cross-sector insights, particularly in consumer trends, industrial health, and energy outlooks. Markets may remain sensitive to Fed commentary and the 10-year auction, as macro and monetary signals converge. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 6, 2025 GBPUSDSterling stays on the back foot ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England decision: consensus expects the Bank Rate to be held at 5.25 percent, but markets price only one or two modest cuts by year-end as inflation has slowed to 2.6 percent while June retail sales fell 0.9 percent m/m. Additional pressure stems from fiscal concerns: the UK Treasury warned that GBP 4 billion of spending cuts will be needed in 2026 to keep the deficit at the 3 percent-of-GDP target, stoking stagflation fears and capping the pound’s upside. The dollar is buoyed by inflows into US yield assets: the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.47 percent, widening the spread over 10-year gilts to 155 basis points—historically associated with GBPUSD weakness. Trading Recommendation: SELL 1.32850, SL 1.33050, TP 1.31800
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W32 | D6 | Y25📊 GBPUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W32 | D6 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:GBPUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
GBPUSD 4H: retest done - bearish continuation beginsOn the 4H chart, GBPUSD has completed a textbook head and shoulders pattern. The neckline has already been broken, and the price is now finalizing a retest around 1.3365–1.3380, where the 0.5 Fibo level also lies. This confirms a trend reversal, with the market preparing for the next leg down. MA and EMA are above the current price, adding pressure to the downside. RSI remains neutral, and volume is shifting in favor of bears. The key resistance zone at 1.3365 has been tested from below, and the price is beginning to roll over - a classic bearish continuation signal. Targets: 1.3240 first, then 1.3150 and potentially 1.2 870 if momentum builds. The invalidation point is a close above 1.3365, which is not likely at this stage. Fundamentals support the move: the dollar remains strong as the Fed holds its hawkish stance, while the UK economy continues to show weakness across services and manufacturing. Neckline broken ✅ Retest done ✅ Momentum building ✅ The setup is complete — time to follow the structure.
Short
by TotoshkaTrades