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U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

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USDGBP trade ideas

GBPUSD BUYGBP/USD rebounds from lows, back above 1.3200 GBP/USD now alternates gains with losses in the low-1.3200s, reversing an early pullback to the 1.3180 zone. Meanwhile, Cable's inconclusive tone is accompanied by some renewed selling pressuron on the the US Dollar in the wake of US data releases. Robust macroeconomic data releases from the United States (US) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious tone on policy-easing fuelled a bullish rally in the US Dollar (USD) midweek, causing GBP/USD to decline sharply. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate showed that the United States' (US) economy staged an impressive comeback following the 0.5% contraction seen in the first quarter. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%. Additionally, ADP Employment Change came in at 104,000 in July, beating analysts' estimate of 78,000 by a wide margin. Later in the day, the Fed announced that it maintained the policy rate at the range of 4.25%-4.5% in a widely expected decision. The policy statement showed that Governor Christopher Waller and Governor Michelle Bowman dissented, preferring a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, which was also anticipated. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from confirming a rate cut at the next meeting in September, citing heathy conditions in the labor market and explaining that the current policy stance as being appropriate to guard against inflation risks. Moreover, Powell said that the policy was not holding back the economy despite being still modestly restrictive. According go the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in September dropped toward 40% from above-60% before the Fed event. In turn, US Treasury bond yields pushed higher and the USD outperformed its rivals during the American trading hours. The BEA will release Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June on Thursday. Powell said that they expect the annual PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation to come in at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be featured in the US economic calendar. Ahead of Friday's critical July employment report, investors could remain hesitant to take large positions based on this data. It's important to note that month-end flows on the last day of July could ramp up volatility toward the end of the European session and trigger irregular movements in the pair. SUPPORT 1.33727 SUPPORT 1.33128 SUPPORT 1.32590 RESISTANCE 1.3052 RESISTANCE 1.31567
Short
by Mark804
GBP/USD Professional Analysis – “Trap Trigger at Support”GBP/USD Professional Analysis – “Trap Trigger at Support” 📈 Market Overview: • Pair: GBP/USD • Timeframe: Likely 1H or 2H based on candle spacing • Date: July 28, 2025 • Current Price: 1.33529 ⸻ 🔍 Technical Breakdown 🔴 Resistance Zone: 1.35800 – 1.36200 • Strong supply area where the last bullish impulse failed. • Price got rejected hard, initiating a new downtrend. • Sell-side pressure was confirmed with Supertrend turning red. 🟤 Support Zone: 1.32860 – 1.33400 • Major demand area where price previously reversed sharply. • Currently being tested again after a clean sweep into the Trap Trigger zone. ⚠ Trap Trigger Zone (Liquidity Sweep Area): • Price wicked just below support, tapping into a low-volume/high-liquidity area. • This wick likely cleared sell-side liquidity and trapped breakout sellers. • Followed by a bullish rejection wick, implying smart money accumulation. ⸻ 🛠 Indicators & Tools: • Supertrend (10,3): Currently red, indicating short-term bearish momentum. • However, if price closes above 1.34032 (Supertrend level), it could flip bullish. • Volume Profile (VRVP): • Low-volume node under support suggests a quick “stop hunt” move, not genuine selling. • High-volume acceptance area sits higher, near 1.34500–1.35000. ⸻ 🎯 Forecast: 🔴 Bearish Invalidations: • Price closing below 1.32860 with volume would invalidate this setup. • That could signal continuation to deeper liquidity (1.32500 or below). ⸻ 🧠 Smart Money Perspective: • Liquidity engineered beneath support • Trap Trigger activated — ideal for institutional reversal setups • This is a classic “Stop Hunt → Reclaim → Expand” model
Long
by Mentor_Michael03
Determining HTF Bias For Next Candle (CRT)The image shows candlestick patterns for determining HTF bias for the next candle based on close and wick positions relative to price levels: 1. Close Above - Higher Price: White candle closing above a key level (bullish bias, suggests upward continuation). 2. Close Below - Lower Price: Black candle closing below a key level (bearish bias, suggests downward continuation). 3. Wick Above - Lower Price: Long upper wick rejected above a level (bearish bias, indicates seller control). 4. Wick Below - Higher Price: Long lower wick rejected below a level (bullish bias, indicates buyer support).
Education
by Mahdi_QbQ
MORE DOWNSIDE AHEAD Looking at the GBPUSD pair, we can see that the trend has reversed to the downside. The pair broke a rising trendline to the downside in the past and also formed a head and shoulder pattern. Also in the past,price broke a resistance which is indicated with blue rectangle and a support which is indicated with a red rectangle to the downside. I'm seeing price retracing to retest the previously broken structure or support which is indicated with a red rectangle and turning it to resistance, and thereby continuing the downtrend
Short
by enwemadufranklyn1989
GBP/USD Under Pressure as Dollar Strength Builds and Technicals GBP/USD continues to weaken under the weight of renewed dollar strength. The pair has traded below its 50-day moving average for an extended period, and technical signals are aligning for further downside. Last week’s bearish pinbar on the weekly chart highlighted rejection near key resistance, and now a potential bearish close on the monthly chart—marked by a large shadow candle—could reinforce the negative bias. If confirmed, this would suggest sustained pressure into August and beyond. The U.S. dollar is gaining traction on the back of resilient economic data, stable inflation expectations, and rising Treasury yields. No changes are expected from the Federal Reserve in the near term, which removes uncertainty and supports the dollar through steady policy. Meanwhile, the UK outlook remains fragile. Political uncertainty, weak economic momentum, and unclear forward guidance from the Bank of England are weighing on the Pound. Wage growth is slowing, inflation is cooling, and real yields remain under pressure. If GBP/USD breaks below the recent support near 1.3205, it could open the door to deeper losses. As long as dollar strength persists and UK fundamentals remain soft, the pair may remain under bearish control. Watch for a confirmed monthly close to validate the setup.
Short
by fwalbaum
1
15-minute timeframe analysis of GBP/USD Trend & Structure: Overall Trend: Bearish, confirmed by the consistent series of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). Downtrend Line: A blue diagonal trendline is drawn connecting recent LHs, acting as dynamic resistance. Indicators & Tools Used: Alligator Indicator: Comprising three smoothed moving averages (13, 8, 5) – the lines are wide apart and aligned downward, confirming the downtrend. Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Marked in red zones showing potential imbalances or inefficiencies in price action where price may return. Recent FVGs are appearing near LHs, implying selling pressure. RSI Divergence Indicator (14, close): Current RSI value: 37.72 → indicates bearish momentum. Previous Bullish Divergences were marked on the RSI where price made lower lows but RSI made higher lows – however, these failed to reverse the downtrend sustainably. Trade Plan (as per annotation on chart): Setup: Sell Stop Entry Entry Level: 1.32048 Stop Loss (SL): 1.32447 (above recent FVG and LH) Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.31658 (below last LL) Rationale: Selling continuation in bearish trend structure without divergence on RSI, supported by trendline and fair value gaps. Key Support/Resistance Zones: Resistance Levels: 1.32441 (Stop Loss Zone / recent LH) 1.32386 and 1.32333 (Alligator and FVG overlap) Support Zone: 1.31658 (TP1 and potential previous demand zone) Conclusion: This chart illustrates a trend-following sell setup in a clear bearish structure. The trader is planning to enter short upon a breakdown below 1.32048, anticipating a move toward 1.31658. The lack of current RSI divergence supports the momentum-based bearish continuation.
Short
by Musarrat_karamat
GBP/USD EVALUATION = PASSGBP/USD EVALUATION = PASS This pair has been on our watchlist and it finally made a break below support with a good pullback into a strong resistance zone, timing was great (morning session), volume was great, engulfing candle great, S/R zone great.......but, momentum was low and although it made the hook, it was not strong enough. Also, we feel the market structure was only in a 2 leg and not 3 leg. Not every setup deserves our attention — and that’s the point. This is exactly where most traders go wrong — they force it. But if we’re truly following a strategy rooted in alignment, discipline means saying no just as confidently as we say yes. Passing on trades isn’t a missed opportunity. It’s a mark of growth.
by darlwright
GBPUSD corrective pullback support at 1.3180The GBPUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.3180 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.3180 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.3370 – initial resistance 1.3430 – psychological and structural level 1.3480 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.3180 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.3140 – minor support 1.3110 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the GBPUSD holds above 1.3180. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadThursday July 31 - Market Summary United States: June personal income rose by 0.2 percent. June personal spending increased by 0.3 percent. Core PCE inflation was up 0.2 percent, showing steady disinflation. The Federal Reserve is likely to stay cautious; no immediate rate cuts expected. Japan: The Bank of Japan kept its interest rate at 0.5 percent. Policymakers signaled possible rate hikes later this year if inflation remains strong. The yen strengthened, and Japanese equities posted small gains. China: Official July PMIs remained weak, with manufacturing below the 50 threshold. Signals continued sluggish growth momentum. United Kingdom: The Lloyds Business Barometer showed slightly improved sentiment in July. Eurozone: July inflation figures and June unemployment rate due later today. Markets watching for signs of inflation persistence or labor market softness. Canada: May GDP expected today, with modest economic growth forecast. Market Implications: US dollar remains firm due to strong data and delayed Fed rate cut expectations. Japanese yen is stronger on expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan. US equities are supported by strong earnings and soft inflation trends. Bond markets are stable with little movement in yields. Commodities face downward pressure due to weak Chinese data. Key data to watch today includes US jobless claims, Chicago PMI, Eurozone inflation, and Canadian GDP. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation