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U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

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USDGBP trade ideas

The Fed aftermath. US dollar bulls enjoy the moment.The US dollar bulls went in hard after during and after the Fed's press conference. Can the momentum stay? Let's dig in. MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX TVC:DXY Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 31, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The pound remains under pressure as consumer spending and the labor market in the UK are weakening, reducing the likelihood of an aggressive response from the Bank of England. Core inflation has dropped to 3.3% y/y – the lowest in two years – allowing the regulator to keep rates steady for longer. External factors are also unfavorable: demand for the defensive dollar is strengthening ahead of the FOMC meeting, and the yield spread between 10-year gilts and USTs has narrowed to 115 basis points – the lowest since March, stimulating flows into the dollar. Additional negative dynamics come from the rise in the UK current account deficit to 3.9% of GDP, amid higher prices for imported energy and declining exports of services. Expectations of tighter fiscal consolidation are increasing fiscal risks and encouraging investors to reduce long GBP positions. Risks to the bearish outlook are limited: these would be a surprise in the form of hawkish Bank of England comments or a sharp deterioration in US macro data that could weaken the dollar. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.32700, SL 1.32900, TP 1.31700
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD FORMS HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN IN 1D TIME FRAME CHARTGBP/USD Forms Head and Shoulders Pattern - Bearish Breakdown Expected The GBP/USD currency pair has developed a clear Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 1-DAY chart, signaling potential weakness ahead. This technical formation - characterized by a central peak (head) flanked by two lower highs (shoulders) - suggests the recent uptrend may be exhausting as sellers gain control. Current Market Structure Price action remains confined within a bearish framework, making consistent lower highs and lower lows since failing at the pattern's right shoulder. The pair now tests critical support near the neckline of the H&S formation. A confirmed break below this level would validate the pattern and likely accelerate downward momentum. Key Levels to Watch - *Downside Target*: 1.27300 emerges as the next major support if bearish momentum sustains - Resistance Zone: The 1.37900 level now acts as formidable overhead resistance - Neckline Break: A daily close below current support would confirm the H&S pattern Trading Implications The technical setup favors: 1) Maintaining short positions while price holds below the right shoulder high 2) Watching for increased volume on breakdown moves to confirm bearish conviction 3) Considering long positions only if buyers reclaim 1.37900 resistance Risk Factors Traders should monitor: - UK inflation data and BoE policy signals - Fed interest rate expectations - General USD strength across currency markets This pattern projects approximately 900 pips of potential downside if fully realized. However, traders should wait for confirmed breakout momentum rather than anticipating the move, as false breakdowns remain possible in current market conditions. Proper position sizing and stop-loss placement above recent swing highs remains essential for risk management. Note: Forex trading involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own analysis before entering positions.
Short
by TraderAishDXB
1
GBP/USD Forms Head and Shoulders Pattern in 4H Timeframe ChartGBP/USD Forms Head and Shoulders Pattern - Bearish Breakdown Expected The GBP/USD currency pair has developed a clear Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 4-hour chart, signaling potential weakness ahead. This technical formation - characterized by a central peak (head) flanked by two lower highs (shoulders) - suggests the recent uptrend may be exhausting as sellers gain control. Current Market Structure Price action remains confined within a bearish framework, making consistent lower highs and lower lows since failing at the pattern's right shoulder. The pair now tests critical support near the neckline of the H&S formation. A confirmed break below this level would validate the pattern and likely accelerate downward momentum. Key Levels to Watch - Downside Target: 1.28800 emerges as the next major support if bearish momentum sustains - Resistance Zone: The 1.37900 level now acts as formidable overhead resistance - Neckline Break: A daily close below current support would confirm the H&S pattern Trading Implications The technical setup favors: 1) Maintaining short positions while price holds below the right shoulder high 2) Watching for increased volume on breakdown moves to confirm bearish conviction 3) Considering long positions only if buyers reclaim 1.37900 resistance Risk Factors Traders should monitor: - UK inflation data and BoE policy signals - Fed interest rate expectations - General USD strength across currency markets This pattern projects approximately 900 pips of potential downside if fully realized. However, traders should wait for confirmed breakout momentum rather than anticipating the move, as false breakdowns remain possible in current market conditions. Proper position sizing and stop-loss placement above recent swing highs remains essential for risk management.
Short
by Brillant_Capital
GBP/USD Long SetupGBP/USD Long Setup Hello traders, On the 1-hour chart, we’ve observed a strong bullish candle formation, indicating potential for further upside movement. Based on this setup: Entry: 1.33650 Stop-Loss: 1.33500 Take-Profit: 1.33880 Exit Plan: We plan to close the trade by the end of the European session. Trade safely and manage your risk accordingly! Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please conduct your own analysis before entering any trades. Trading involves risk, and you should never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Long
by alisardari
GBPUSD – Daily Timeframe Analysis: Head & Shoulders PatternThe GBPUSD daily chart is currently presenting a textbook Head & Shoulders reversal pattern, a powerful bearish signal that often marks the end of an uptrend and the beginning of a new downward cycle. This setup demands attention from swing and positional traders alike, especially considering the size and clarity of the structure. 🔍 Pattern Breakdown Left Shoulder: Formed in late May, establishing a significant high before a corrective move. Head: A higher peak was made in early June, which now stands as the pattern's highest point. Right Shoulder: A lower high formed in mid-July, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Neckline: The crucial horizontal support zone around 1.3330–1.3340 was tested multiple times and has now been decisively broken, triggering a confirmed bearish setup. 📊 Technical Significance This Head & Shoulders pattern becomes especially meaningful due to: Multiple rejections at the neckline, confirming its strength as support-turned-resistance. Bearish volume expansion on the breakdown, adding weight to the selling pressure. Formation on a daily timeframe, suggesting a long-term trend reversal rather than a short-term pullback. 📌 Trading Strategy for Traders ✅ Sell Setup (Short Position) Entry: Around the neckline zone on retest (1.3320–1.3340) Stop Loss: Above the right shoulder (~1.3550) Targets: 🎯 Target 1: 1.3100 (psychological and horizontal support) 🎯 Target 2: 1.2900 (measured move from head to neckline) 🎯 Target 3: 1.2650–1.2600 (extended downside zone based on structure) ⚠️ Risk Management Tips: Don’t chase the breakdown — wait for a pullback/retest of the neckline to get a better risk/reward entry. Ensure position sizing is appropriate based on the stop loss distance. If price reclaims the neckline with strong bullish momentum and closes above 1.3350, exit short and reevaluate. 🧠 What Traders Should Keep in Mind Macro Fundamentals: Watch upcoming economic events like BoE rate decisions, US NFP, and inflation data, which can cause volatility and impact the technical scenario. Dollar Index (DXY) trend should also be monitored closely. If DXY rallies, GBPUSD breakdown can accelerate. Trendline Confirmation: Align this with any break of rising trendlines drawn from previous lows. 📌 Final Thought This pattern marks a crucial turning point in GBPUSD. The momentum has clearly shifted from buyers to sellers, and the breakdown opens up significant downside room. As a swing or position trader, this is a high-probability setup with a clear invalidation point (above the right shoulder) and a favorable risk-reward ratio. 📉 Patience and precision are key here. Let price come to you at the neckline, confirm rejection, and then take the trade with confidence. ================================================================= Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. =================================================================
Short
by TradZoo
8
GBPUSD I Its ready for the deeper pullback - COT OverviewHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
17
GU 01/08Looking at this current H4 leg trending down, we have levels of H4 supply to come test with some gaps that need filled. We have high impact news incoming, my trading ideas are to follow what I see, we have a H4 demand level from the left which has deeper levels of daily demand with draws of liquidity in the form of lows and equal lows. My idea is that we clear our H4 imbalance gaps resting within H4 supply and below, hopefully mitigating supply in order to look for continuation shorts into lower demand levels.
Short
by Ryany88
GBPUSD DOWNSIDE UPDATE The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose by +0.22% and posted a 5-week high. The dollar has carryover support from Monday following the EU-US trade deal that is seen as favoring the US. Also, expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of Wednesday's 2-day FOMC meeting are supportive of the dollar. The dollar extended its gains after the US Jun advance goods trade deficit unexpectedly shrank, a supportive factor for Q2 GDP, and after July consumer confidence rose more than expected.
Short
by isaac886
GBPUSD - 30/7/25 - PIvot to bullishYesterday price touched a HTF demand zone that i marked out and on the 1 hour formed a break of structure. This is as per my plan a pivot ore reversal sign. Now trying to find an entry its trickier. Initially i wanted to enter higher up at the green imbalance that is there, but i noticed equal low liquidity marked as $$$ which i will assume will be taken out. I placed a buy-limit here with a tighter SL than i normally go for, but the TP is the next high. Today is a high impact news day with the Fed releasing news later today -hence i will not take as many trades.
Long
by AlpenglowTrader