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U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint

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USDHUF Sell when the 1D MA200 breaks.The USDHUF pair had a bearish break-out on our last analysis (October 13 2023, see chart below) and after hitting our 345.700 Sell Target, it rebounded: The rebound formed a Channel Up, which again failed and a new downtrend has been confirmed after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue turned-line) again. Once the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks as well, we will have a bearish break-out confirmation, similar to October - November 2023. Our Target is Support 2 at 342.1565. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USDHUF - The slow thinker. Hello all, Today, we are posting my observation of the recent crab structure USDHUF has displayed, and is now giving a great regression into it's extension levels. Depicted are the 1.13, 1.27, 1,41 and 1.618 extension levels. As the chart suggests, we should see a nice move into the 1.13, and then into (B). These moves are most typically strongly considered only after tapping the 1.13 PRZ. This happens quite often, and results in a lengthy run for the asset pair(s) Of course, use caution; whilst harmonix are a great tool to utilize during a traders analysis, it can be violated like any other theory. This depiction is simply a technical analysis that aims to help other harmonic traders in their consideration of this trade. Happy charting, -Richie
Long
by FatmanRichard
2
USDHUF: Stage 1 BreakFundamentals : It seems that Hungary's central bank rate cutes will come faster than the US central bank rate cuts. This could strengthen the US Dollar's currency relative to the Hungarian Forint's currency. Technicals : divergence bottom reversal pattern ichi cloud break Weekly morning stars Monthly uptrend and bullish chikou Recent news: "Hungary's central bank (MNB) has reduced its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 10.75%." (www.euronews.com(MNB)%20has,third%20consecutive%20cut%20since%20October.) "MNB also released its updated economic forecast, signaling a strong decline in the forthcoming inflation report" "The consumer price index is expected to return to the central bank's inflation target of between 4% and 5.5% in 2025." "The MNB expects the GDP to expand by 2.5–3.5% in 2024, followed by 3.5–4.5% in 2025 and by 3–4% in 2026." The Hungarian central bank vice president "Virág said at the press briefing that the Council has also discussed the possibility of a 100 basis point rate cut today. " "Earlier in November, the vice president signaled that the interest rate may fall below 10% for the first time in February 2024, which has been widely interpreted that the rate of 75 basis points per month is almost certain to stay until then ."
Long
by Rocketman
USDHUF: Buy and sell signals depending on the 1D MA200.USDHUF is bearish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.886, MACD = -2.380, ADX = 36.722) as it has been on the decline since October 4th. This selling sequence has stopped exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern, with the 1D MA200 holding precisely for five straight days. As long as it holds, it is a buy signal and we are targeting the R1 level (TP = 375.00). If it breaks and closes the 1D candle under it, sell and target the S2 level (TP = 335.60). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
USDHUF Bearish leg within a Channel Up.The USDHUF pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern, currently extending the bearish leg after a Higher Low on Resistance 1 (375.600). The previous bearish leg hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then rebounded, so we are expecting a similar development. As long as the pair is closing the 1D candles above the 1D MA50, we will be bullish, targeting Resistance 2 (381.3500) as part of the next Higher High. If it closes below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and counter with a sell position, targeting 345.700 (Support 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
Mirror level increases USD chances for a reboundFor the last nine months, USD/HUF has been in a downtrend erasing all gains made last year. However, I believe it could change in the second half of the year. The currency pair reached the key support level of 340 HUF per USD in April. Since then the USD price has been anchored to the level. Before the spring of 2022, the level of 350 was the key resistance level, the pair knocked on the level in April 2020 and March 2021 (the next month it broke through). This year it is the floor or the mirror level (i.d., the level that previously played the opposite role for the price). By the way, the same mirror-level case with EUR, only the floor is different, it is 370 HUF for EUR. It is more robust than the dollar one. It has prevented four forint deterioration attempts. I think there is a little chance that the USD will break through the support, but a high chance that it will rebound to the first target of 380. On the daily chart, I can estimate that consolidation has done most of its way and the USD bounce may start during the month. But on the weekly and monthly charts, the consolidation may be prolonged and take 4-5 additional months. In case, I am mistaken and the floor brokes, the forint would grow to 320 until this October. From the macroeconomic perspective, my outlook is mixed negative for forint. On one hand, Hungary has the highest rate in the EU, making short of forint to USD or EUR an expensive position. The interest rate is 13%. On the other hand, the rate has been increased to combat high double-digit inflation, which is also the highest in the EU, in the previous autumn, the national bank launched a new one-day deposit rate ECONOMICS:HUINTR . Currently, it is 16%, but a few months ago was 18%. The high deposit rate has motivated private banks to deposit their funds in the national bank. The national bank previously incorporated quantitive easing and bought assets in its portfolio, but nowadays experiences severe capital stress. Due to a decrease in the portfolio and expensive interest costs coming from the expensive deposit rate, its equity has shrunk and become negative! According to EU laws, the Hungarian government must capitalize the bank in 2024. It will cost around 0.5% of countries GDP. News agencies suppose the government will ask the ECB to suspend this regulation and postpone the national bank recapitalization. It happens on the background of a permanent government deficit between 4-6% ECONOMICS:HUGBP . This year they expect around 4%. The economy is in stagflation, and GDP has contracted for the consecutive quarters ECONOMICS:HUGDPQQ . Hungarian consumer is under the pressure of high inflation that devalued their income resulting in the retail sales collapse ECONOMICS:HURSYY . The economic crisis will decrease government incomes ECONOMICS:HUGR , making it impossible to shorten the government deficit, so Hungary will again become active as a borrower ECONOMICS:HUGDG . The high interest rate has affected the money supply. The monetary base ECONOMICS:HUM0 has doubled over the last ten months, while the money supply ECONOMICS:HUM2 has noticeably contracted in real and nominal terms in the amount of 6%, that for the current fiat economy is a rare event. I expect a gradual decrease in the national bank deposit rate. It would induce credit activity and money supply growth and monetary base reduction. An additional supporter of HUF's strength is current account recovery. Hungary is heavily dependent on fossil fuels import. This year TTF ICEEUR:TFM1! drop helps to drastically decrease natural gas expenditures and reduce HUF conversion to foreign currencies. It could save about 5% of countries GDP. Instead of 8% of the current account deficit ECONOMICS:HUCAG , the country would have 3%. Tight relations with the EU, and partly frozen EU funds also negatively affect on Hungarian economy and forint perspectives. Non-EU possible market-moving events: There is only one important: the American economy and the Fed ECONOMICS:USINTR interest rate. American money supply ECONOMICS:USM2 shrinkage may ignite a recession this year, forcing the Fed to decrease the rate. Undoubtedly, the recession would become a shock for the Hungarian economy and forint. I doubt that a drop in the Fed rate and widening interest rate difference will support forint in a short time. Conversely, the shock would drive risk aversion from the developing markets and Hungary, as well as, creating waves of chaotic forint sales. The contraction of the American economy would also motivate the national bank of Hungary to cut its rates critically supporting forint short-sellers activity. The minor risk is natural gas deliveries ECONOMICS:HUNGI from Russia. If something happens with the Ukrainian gas pipeline, the Hungarian economy will suffer, creating forint vulnerable to the consequences. In this case, the Turkish stream may be a backup transportation route for Hungary.
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
3