USDINR trade ideas
USDINR bearish until major market trigger as Halkish Fed policyIn the light of better US jobs data, simultaneos dovish fed policy in near term plus the positive sentiment in the Indian economy owning to better monsoon, 7th pay commission, possible GST Bill passing has led to a bullish INR as also seen from the charts.
For USDINR, resistance levels are 67.35, 67.50 & 68.00 while support levels are 66.50, 66.00 & 65.70
One should go short on any relief rally until 67.30.
67.25 July Calls can be written with low risk.
USD/INR - Rupee looking Strong (Sell $)As per the charts, Indian Rupee strong after the breakout from up trending channel with a long candlestick. This gives a indication. It may be because of GST forecast or may be something loosing up in US economy. We have to see with the time. Now, it is confirmed that this may reach to 66 levels again.
Stoploss to be maintained at 67.8450
H&S USDINRa move towards arnd 66.52 will complete neckline of outer (and more realistic) H&S...so from CMP risky Short call. If it does reach 66.52 then a definite Long from 66.52 towards 67.80
Immediate resistance seen at 67.44
USDINR Bearish View & Road Ahead!!USDINR would fall from current levels and probably make new loves below 66 levels.. Overall Rupee made a 5 wave down move from the top of 69 levels after which gave a 3 wave a-b-c correction with in the trend channel and is now ready for further down move.
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Siraj Hudda, CFTe
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USDINR@22nd May 2016- “Bang on…Impatient About Acche DinUSDINR@22nd May 2016- “Bang on…Impatient About Acche Din”
Getting impatient for “Acche Din” –I guess this is the case with every Indian since we voted BJP to power in 2014 since expectations were high & everyone was desperate to see better results.
But let us not forget Mr.Modi talked about 60 Months & it is just 24 months old under his leadership. The devastated state of the country’s economy was to be restored to normal first & Mr.Modi is doing his share of work. So, have faith in him.
Report on 6th April 2016
Unless USDINR closes below 65.95 & breaches rising trendline- do not assume that rupee will appreciate further beyond 66 & it is better to buy dollars. Technically, It was suggested that we shall have one more leg on upside in the form of Z-Wave.
Bang on…The journey has started, USDINR has closed & made a high as well above the ruin point 67.50 on 19th May 2016, Going forward –we have greater possibility that USDINR can even cross 68.80 & 69.22.
Let us not be scared & face that with courage – we might even have spikes above 70 odd levels which will create panic in market.
Looking at the structure, that is the euphoria which dollar bulls shall create in market very close to highs of 69.22 but it will be foolish to buy dollars in panic state as that is the time –when markets will change their hands & table could turn upside down for bulls – making bears stronger in that state.
Any day, when we have panic buying in dollars very close to previous high & making new high i.e. above 69.22 & not sustaining that high means- spike in candle with long shadows(kindly visit google for long shadows in candlestick images)- shall be the first clue that bulls be careful – dollar could start its downward journey.
Regards,
Abhishek H.Singh, CMT
Is USD/INR Going To Breach 70 Now?This is what we have to say about Mr. Raghuram Rajan's decision to leave Reserve Bank Of India ( RBI ) after the end of his current term in September.
This is what happens when you state the obvious to politicians. He is the only central bank chief with chutzpah to tell governing politicians that central bank can't cure it all with just cutting rates ! At some point they need to pick up the baton to reform and enact policies to progress. So he didn't has much choice. Either keep on cutting rates or do whatever pleases to the boss or show them the finger and leave. Besides his rising international acceptance and appeal wasn't going smoothly with someone who likes to grab all the attention whenever India is mentioned in international media. Guess who? ;)
We are not sure how markets will open on Monday because conventional wisdom says it will go down, but we have our doubts. Because in short term market may think that now he is going to be replaced with someone who will definitely start cutting rates and let the banks roam freely and that may cause markets to rally.
And of course USDINR is going to breach 70 mark in no time !
We have been bearish rupee for long time and there are obvious reasons for that. Here is what we said last year about rupee. bombaybulls.com
In a nutshell, nothing happens with empty promises of reform and someone who knows the country well, should be aware of the fact that it is not going to change in our lifetime at least !
A potential bullish garley pattern on the USD/INR2 .618 retracements signalling a potential gartley pattern on to the 65.500 range.
usdinr up trend unsustainable on monthly chart.price keeps humping against the trendlne. there is also an evening star formation. the tl looks about to pop.
USD/INR - Possible Cypher, Keep an eye on 38.2% & 61.8% Fib CDPossible cypher formation on USD/INR pair.
CD leg in the making, but needs to climb and see a daily close above the trendline resistance and previous support (broken previously) around 66.7812
The initial targets for an expected bullish move remain at the 38.2% and then the 61.8% fib level for the CD leg.
The current daily candle is signalling indecision. Fundamentally, the press speculation on the Indian Governor Raghuram Rajan, and the GST (single tax) debate are the key points to take into consideration.
Globally, 'brexit' and a falling dollar are the key risks for the Indian currency.
The bullish argument fails if we see a break and close below the uptrend line around 66.45-47 zone.
Short USDINRFed hike possibility in June is remote now, INR likely to get stronger against dollar. Short for a target of 66.20
USDINR eyeing 67.50Nice rebound from a larger rising trend line..with daily RSI at 60.00 pointing upwards.
Long as long as support at 66.7+ is intact for target of 67.50 with stops below 66.50
USDINR LONG USDINR showing consolidation and potential breakout as it experiences strong support at 2 year support trendline. RR ratio 2.31. If prv high is broken 71 is possible.
USDINR: Promising downtrendUSDINR is right against the downtrend mode offering a very low risk opportunity to go short if we get a new daily low.
The first entry, has a tighter stop, so risk half on this one, and half on the larger 3 atr stop entry.
There are two possible targets, one at 65.44 and the other longer term target at 64.2882.
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Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#USDINR: Bear Conviction Apparent, Lows To Be Seen! #ForexTraders,
A nice trade here at a key action level. We have a nice bearish engulfing signal at the historical support resistance zone, and strong Fibonacci ratio confluence, reinforcing we have hit a resistance ceiling we can short off of.
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Best regards,
Tom
