US30 Scaling Setup – Pullback to 48k Targeting 50,000 Year EndUS30’s near highs (~48,500–49,000), but a pullback to 48,000 looks likely as we await the first US unemployment rate release since the 43-day government shutdown—a highly anticipated event. Here’s my plan to scale longs and hit 50,000 by Thursday/Friday:
Setup:
Area of Interest (AOI): Targeting ~47,800–48,200 (around 48,000), a high-volume support zone (volume profile) with past buyer activity.
Confirmation: Enter on stalling bearish momentum (e.g., RSI ~50, MACD histogram flattening, bullish pin bars on 4H/1H).
Strategy:
Initial Entry: Small position (0.01 lot) at 48,000 to scalp intra-day bounces.
Scaling In: Add a 2x larger position (0.02 lot) at 47,800 if price drops, building exposure.
Target: Aim for 50,000 (psychological resistance) by Thursday/Friday, December 18–19, post-unemployment data. Close all trades at target or if 4H closes below 47,800 (bearish resumption).
Position Management: Trail stops to lock in profits (e.g., breakeven at +0.2%, trail to 0.5% portfolio gain). This trade fits my broader portfolio (e.g., XAUUSD, EURUSD), with adjustments based on weekly performance.
Risk Management:
Cap risk at 1–2% per trade, 10% portfolio max (per FTMO rules). Stops at 47,500 (initial) and 47,000 (scaled). Diversify with XAUUSD/EURUSD to spread exposure. Reserve margin for event volatility.
Key US Economic Events (Times EST):
*** Tuesday, Dec 16, 8:30 AM: Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct/Nov, delayed). Forecast: ~40,000 (Nov, per). Weak (<20,000) could rally US30 to 50,000; strong (>100,000) may deepen pullback to 47,800.
*** Tuesday, Dec 16, 8:30 AM: Unemployment Rate (Nov). Forecast: ~4.4% (per). First release since shutdown (September: 4.4%, highest since 2021). A spike (>4.7%) could trigger risk-off to 47,000; steady (~4.4%) may support 50,000.
*** Tuesday, Dec 16, 8:30 AM: Retail Sales (Nov). Forecast: +0.4% m/m (per). Weak (<0.2%) may push to 47,000; strong (>0.6%) could delay pullback.
*** Thursday, Dec 18, 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Dec 13). Forecast: ~220K (per). High (>250K) supports US30; low (<200K) caps upside.
Market Context:
US30’s up 17% YTD but faces resistance at 50,000 (per,). RSI (~55) and MACD flattening suggest a pullback to 48,000, a high-volume zone (November 2025, per,). The Nov unemployment rate (Tuesday), the first since the shutdown, is a major catalyst—steady data could fuel a rally to 50,000; a spike may trigger risk-off. Volatility’s 1–2% daily (~500–1000 points), ideal for scaling longs post-data.
Risk Warning:
The unemployment rate release could spike volatility. Keep risk at 1–2% per trade, diversify, and use tight stops. Trade your plan!
What’s your US30 play this week? Share your setups below!
#US30 #DowJones #Scalping #Unemployment #EconomicEvents
