XAGUSDG trade ideas
Silver Market Recap: Q2 2025 HighlightsSilver prices hit a 14-year peak in Q2 of 25 due to global uncertainties and a tight supply-demand balance. Although it shares some similar drivers with gold, silver has carved its own path, which one charged by robust industrial demand and its safe-haven appeal amid economic and geopolitical turbulence.
Silverโs Price Journey
The quarter kicked off with a dip, silver fell from $33.77 per ounce on April 2 to $29.57 by April 4. But then, it quickly regained traction, crossing $30 by April 9 and peaking at $33.63 on April 23. May brought volatility, with prices swinging between $32.05 on May 2 and $33.46 on May 23. June marked a turning point: silver surging to $36.76 by June 9 and reaching a year-to-date high of $37.12 on June 17. By the quarterโs end, prices stabilized between $36 and $37, holding strong into July.
Supply Squeeze Meets Rising Demand
Silverโs rally was underpinned by a persistent supply deficit. The Silver Instituteโs World Silver Survey (April 16, 2025) reported record demand of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, driven by industries like solar energy, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, mine production lagged, creating a 148.9-million-ounce shortfall-the fourth consecutive year of deficits. Some experts may say that weโre seeing flat supply and demand outpacing it by nearly 20%. Aboveground stockpiles have dwindled by 800 million ounces over four years-equivalent to a full yearโs mine output. They call it a โperfect stormโ for silverโs price trajectory.
Geopolitical and Economic Catalysts
Global tensions are having a very noticeable impact on the dynamics of silver. Escalating conflicts, including Israelโs June 12 and June 21 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, heightened fears of disrupted trade and energy flows, just boosting this way silverโs safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, the BRICS blocโs push to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, including Russiaโs proposal for a precious metals exchange, added further momentum. U.S. trade policies, particularly President Trumpโs fluctuating tariffs, introduced volatility. The April 2 โLiberation Dayโ tariff announcement sparked fears of a recession, briefly pushing silver prices down due to its industrial exposure. I guess that any recession-driven dip would be short-lived, with silver buoyed by broader precious metals strength and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Industrial Demand in the Spotlight
Unlike gold, silverโs industrial role amplified its price movements. Its use in photovoltaics, military components, and energy infrastructure has surged, with national security priorities in the U.S. and elsewhere driving demand. Economist Dr. Nomi Prins states the following: โSilverโs industrial applications-especially in energy and defense-are outpacing supply. Geopolitical shifts are cementing its role beyond a traditional safe-haven asset.โ
Whatโs Next for Silver?
Looking ahead, analysts remain optimistic. Some predicts, that silver will hold above $35, potentially reaching $40 by year-end, with a stronger dollar as a possible headwind. Speaking about long-term, they see the gold-silver ratio (currently 92:1, compared to a 50-year average of 60:1) narrowing to 40:1 or lower, potentially pushing silver past $100 per ounce in the next few years. Although a global recession could temper industrial demand, safe-haven buying and ongoing supply constraints are expected to provide support. Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, particularly between the U.S. and China, are unlikely to fade, which will only increase the attractiveness of silver.
Silver's performance reflects the dynamic interplay between industrial demand, supply shortages, and global uncertainties. With favorable fundamentals and geopolitical conditions, silver is poised for continued strength in the second half of 2025, assuming recession risks remain manageable.
Long-term bullish action on Silver?I touched on the longer-term price action of Spot Silver (XAG/USD) last week, showing that the unit is on track to shake hands with a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) of a monthly harmonic bat pattern between US$46.79 and US$42.68.
Keeping things aligned with the harmonic landscape, you will note that H1 price action recently printed an AB=CD bullish pattern at US$38.87 (100% projection ratio), set just north of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio of US$38.75. While the H1 chart is generally considered short-term in nature, you may find that given we have longer-term flow suggesting scope for additional outperformance, short-term dip-buyers may consider holding a portion of their long positions open in an attempt to catch some of the possible longer-term upside.
(XAGUSD) Volume Absorption to Bullish Continuation To Target๐งฑ 1. Market Structure Breakdown:
The 4H chart of Silver (XAGUSD) reveals a well-structured price action sequence, beginning with a compression breakout, a strong bullish impulse, and a current retracement phase into a key reversal zone.
๐บ Symmetrical Triangle & Volume Absorption (Early July):
The market was forming higher lows and lower highs, indicative of consolidation inside a symmetrical triangle.
During this phase, a volume absorption event occurredโindicating smart money was accumulating before a breakout.
This was followed by a strong bullish breakout, confirming upside strength and clearing previous highs.
๐ 2x Channel Supply Zone โ Now Demand:
After breaking above the triangle, the price surged into a key supply zone, created from a prior channel top.
This zone was tested, absorbed, and flipped into a new demand zone, as buyers overwhelmed sellers.
This supply-demand interchange confirmed a structural change in market sentiment.
๐ 2. Momentum Confirmation โ High Breakout:
The "High Breaked" level, marked clearly on the chart, acted as a bullish breakout trigger.
This breakout not only breached the prior resistance but established a new bullish legโproviding strong confirmation of trend continuation.
๐ 3. QFL Zone & Controlled Pullback:
After the surge, the price began to correct from the QFL (Quick Flip Level).
This level usually represents an area where short-term distribution or profit-taking occurs.
The pullback from this zone was controlled but sharp, which is natural after such a strong move up.
๐ฉ 4. Next Reversal Zone โ The Critical Demand Block:
Price is now entering a high-probability reversal zone, marked around $37.5โ$36.8.
This area is critical due to:
Confluence with previous structure and minor support.
Potential bullish absorption area.
Last base before the impulse up.
If bullish price action (like bullish engulfing, pin bar, or volume spike) is seen here, it could signal the start of the next leg up.
๐งจ 5. Key Warning: "If it crosses, this will be Supply Double"
If this zone fails to hold, the demand will flip into double supply, likely accelerating bearish momentum.
In such case, Silver may revisit Major Support near the $36.0โ$35.5 zone.
๐งญ Potential Trading Scenarios:
โ
Bullish Path (Primary Expectation):
Price reacts from the reversal zone with bullish momentum.
Breaks back into the Central Zone (~$38.5).
Forms a higher low โ continuation toward $39.5โ$41.0.
Breakout above the recent swing high confirms the continuation pattern.
Trade Idea:
Long entries near $37.2โ$37.5 with SL below $36.8.
Target zones: $38.8 (short-term), $39.8โ$41.0 (swing).
โ Bearish Continuation (Alternative Plan):
Reversal zone fails to hold.
Price breaks and closes below $36.8.
Previous support becomes resistance โ bearish retest.
Continuation toward $36.0โ$35.5 zone.
Trade Idea:
Short on break and retest of $36.8.
SL above the reversal zone.
TP near $35.5 or based on volume exhaustion.
๐ง Market Psychology Insight:
This setup shows a clear institutional playbook:
Accumulation โ Breakout โ Profit-taking โ Retest โ Continuation.
If smart money is active, expect defense of the reversal zone followed by a strong bounce.
SILVER XAGUSD ON 3OTH we are expecting a strong fundamental data .
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast 82K previous -33K
Advance GDP q/q forecast 2.4% previous -0.5% Advance GDP Price Index q/q forecast 2.3% previous 3.8%
Pending Home Sales m/m0.3% 1.8%
7:00pm
USD
Federal Funds Rate
4.50% 4.50%
USD
FOMC Statement
7:30pm
USD
FOMC Press Conference.
we will be watching the data outlook for clear directional bias.
Head & Shoulders Pattern Confirmed bearish sign A clear Head and Shoulders pattern has formed on the 4H timeframe, and confirmation is in place after a decisive break below the neckline around $39.00.
๐ Technical Breakdown:
Left Shoulder: Formed around July 11โ15
Head: July 19โ23 peak
Right Shoulder: Developing through July 24โ25
Neckline: ~$39.00 zone (now broken)
Current Price: ~$38.30
Target: ~$38.00 โ $37.80 (based on pattern projection)
The break below the 50 EMA adds bearish confirmation. Caution is advised unless price reclaims the neckline level.
XAGUSD Technical Outlook โ July 27, 2025
Silver appears to be losing momentum at the top, and for the first time in a while, weโve seen a strong bearish daily candle, suggesting that sellers may be stepping in more seriously.
๐ Previous pullbacks mostly looked like profit-taking, but this drop seems to be accompanied by actual selling pressure.
Despite breaking the previous high over the past two weeks, silver has failed to extend gains meaningfully โ a potential sign of exhaustion.
๐ฏ A low-risk short opportunity may be forming around the $38โ$39 range.
โ ๏ธ For more patient and risk-tolerant traders, a daily close below $37 could open the door for a broader correction toward the $33โ$35 zone โ levels that have remained untested.
Stay sharp โ momentum shifts often start quietly.
Silver Bullish continuation breakout supported at 3686The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation breakout within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 3686 โ a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 3686 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
3814 โ initial resistance
3865 โ psychological and structural level
3920 โ extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 3686 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
3645 โ minor support
3590 โ stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Silver holds above 3686. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
#6472025 | XAGUSD Selling opportunity 1:4XAGUSD Selling opportunity Appears in H4 Time Frame Looking Price Action for Long Term Sell
Risk and Reward Ratio is 1:4
After 50 pips Profit Set SL Entry Level
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XAGUSD Sell Plan โ 15M๐ XAGUSD Sell Plan โ 15M
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Date: July 23, 2025
๐ง Reasoning
Liquidity Grab: Price is sweeping short-term highs during New York open.
No More FVGs Above: Price seems to be exhausting upward momentum.
Magnet Below:
Equal lows (EQ_L) acting as a liquidity pool.
Tokyo low also lies below current price โ another liquidity target.
High Probability Setup: Clean structure with a likely rejection from current premium zone.
๐ด Sell Strategy (Conceptual)
Wait for a minor liquidity grab or rejection wick to trap buyers.
Confirm a market structure shift or bearish order block.
Sell from that zone aiming for:
๐ฏ Target 1: Tokyo Low
๐ฏ Target 2: Equal Lows (Magnet zone)
โ ๏ธ No SL/TP levels shown โ trade based on structure and confirmation using your entry system (e.g., 5M DR, bearish FVG, etc.).
SILVER Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SILVER below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 38.174
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 38.708
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SILVER BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,935.1
Target Level: 3,843.0
Stop Loss: 3,996.7
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 4h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โ
LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEASโ
SILVER Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER is trading in a strong
Uptrend and the price made a
Bullish breakout of the key
Horizontal level of 39.10$
So we are bullish biased
And we will be expecting a
Further bullish move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAGUSD Holding Trendline With Support From Key Demand Zones๐ XAGUSD Holding Trendline Support, Eyes on Breakout
Silver continues to trade within a strong bullish structure, holding above a rising trendline and building pressure near recent highs. With support clearly defined and momentum intact, bulls are eyeing a potential breakout continuation. This update outlines the trend context, support zones, and fundamental backdrop.
๐ Technical Analysis:
XAGUSD is respecting a steep ascending trendline from mid-June, holding structure despite multiple retests. Price recently bounced cleanly from trend support and is now pushing toward prior highs.
The bullish trend remains valid as long as this structure is defended. A close above recent resistance could unlock further upside potential.
๐ก๏ธ Support Zones (if pullback occurs):
๐ข Daily Support โ Good Entry
Clearly respected zone labeled on your chart. Strong daily demand.
๐ก Weekly Support โ Great Entry
Macro support area from prior consolidation. Viewed as a strong swing entry zone.
๐ผ Resistance Zone:
๐ด Local High / Recent Resistance
No breakout yet โ bulls must reclaim this zone to confirm continuation.
๐งญ Outlook:
Bullish Case:
Holding the rising trendline + reclaiming highs would likely trigger further upside movement.
Bearish Case:
Break of the trendline + loss of daily support would open the door to deeper correction.
Bias:
Bullish while structure holds and daily/weekly support levels remain intact.
๐ Fundamental Insight:
Silver is benefiting from firm industrial demand and a softening U.S. Dollar. Inflation hedging and ETF inflows also continue to support the bullish case. However, upcoming Fed commentary and CPI releases may trigger volatility, especially near resistance.
โ
Conclusion:
XAGUSD is maintaining its bullish trend, supported by well-defined daily and weekly demand zones. As long as the ascending trendline holds, the momentum favors further upside. Bears only take control if structure breaks and demand zones fail.
Not financial advice. Like & follow for more structured market updates.
SILVER Retest of Cup and Handle Neckline๐ XAGUSD Trade Idea โ July 25, 2025
Timeframe: 4H
Instrument: Silver / USD (XAGUSD)
Direction: Bullish continuation
Entry Zone: $39.00 - $39.10
Current Price: $39.103
๐ Technical Analysis:
Cup & Handle Pattern: A clean cup formation is visible from July 15โ21, followed by a bullish breakout and minor handle-like retracement.
Retest in Progress: Price is retesting the breakout zone around $39.00, showing consolidation above a strong support structure.
Dynamic Support Confluence: Multiple EMAs (green/orange/red cloud) are acting as support, with recent bullish candles bouncing off the mid-band area.
TD Sequential: A new "7" count signals potential continuation of the trend if support holds.
Volume Gap Below: Clean inefficiency (thin volume) below $38.40โ$38.00 which may act as a magnet in case of invalidation, but is also untested demand.
๐ Trade Setup:
Entry: Around $39.00โ$39.10 on confirmed support hold
Stop Loss: Below $38.50 (beneath EMA and recent higher low)
Take Profit Zones:
TP1: $39.80 (recent swing high)
TP2: $40.60 (measured move from cup breakout)
TP3: $41.00 psychological round number
Bullish continuation?The Silver (XAG/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
pivot: 37.29
1st Support: 36.29
1st Resistance: 39.10
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#SILVER - $3 Swing? 42 or 34.87?Date: 28-07-2205
#silver
Current Price: 38.15
Pivot Point: 38.440 Support: 37.740 Resistance: 39.145
Upside Targets:
Target 1: 39.812
Target 2: 40.480
Target 3: 41.245
Target 4: 42.010
Downside Targets:
Target 1: 37.070
Target 2: 36.400
Target 3: 35.635
Target 4: 34.870
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