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XAUUSD trade ideas

XAU/USD M5 – Bearish Fib Retracement & Downtrend Continuation SeXAU/USD M5 – Bearish Fib Retracement & Downtrend Continuation Setup Gold is currently testing the Fibonacci 0.236–0.382 retracement zone after a clean bearish leg, aligning with the descending channel structure. Price is now forming a possible lower high, hinting at a potential continuation of the intraday downtrend. 🔍 Key Technical Highlights: Bearish Market Structure: Price remains inside a well-respected descending channel, respecting both lower highs and lower lows. Fibonacci Confluence: Retracement into the 0.236–0.382 zone (around $3,345 – $3,347) may act as a resistance. Rejection Expected: Small distribution forming near $3,347 inside the channel resistance. Downside Targets: 1.0 extension: ~$3,338 1.618 extension: ~$3,330 Extended target: Lower channel boundary 📊 Trade Setup: Bias: Short (scalp/intraday) Sell Area: $3,345 – $3,347 (Fibonacci + structure confluence) Stop Loss: Above $3,350 Target: $3,330 Risk:Reward: ~1:3 (depending on entry) 🧠 Tactical Note: Watch for a break and retest below $3,343–3,342 demand zone (purple box) to confirm continuation. A breakout from the descending channel would invalidate this scenario.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by raksazatrader
Gold Trade Plan 02/07/2025ِDear Traders, On the 1-hour chart of XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD), we observe a breakout of the descending trendline, followed by a successful pullback and continuation to the upside. The blue demand zone around 3295–3310 acted as a strong support and triggered a bullish move. As long as the price holds above this support, we expect the uptrend to continue, targeting the resistance areas between 3360–3375 and potentially up to 3390–3400. The RSI has pulled back from the overbought zone but is still holding above the 50 level, supporting the bullish sentiment. 📌 Conclusion: If the price holds above the support zone, further upside towards the resistance zones is likely. If the support fails, the bullish scenario may be invalidated for now. Regards, Alireza!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by alirezak
Below of last update of reverse head and shoulder post XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad 🔸 **Instrument:** Gold / USD (XAU/USD) 🔸 **Timeframe:** 30min 🔸 **Methodology:** Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Liquidity + OB + Market Structure 🔸 **Focus:** New Monthly Open Setup 🔍 Market Context: --- ## 🧠 Technical Breakdown: 1. **Strong recovery** after clearing deep liquidity sweep (Head zone) 2. **Bullish BOS** structure confirmed on LTF → Multiple HH and HL formed 3. Price now testing **Key Supply/OB zone at 3300–3315** 4. Above this zone lies a **Strong High (SH) around 3,350**, a potential liquidity magnet 5. Overall bias is bullish unless strong rejection appears from upper OB --- ## 📌 Trade Plan: | Position | Entry Confirmation Zone | Stop Loss (SL) | Take Profit (TP) | |----------|--------------------------|----------------|------------------| | | Short (scalp only) | Bearish reaction from 3,345–3,350 | Above 3,353 | TP1: 3,310 / TP2: 3,290 | --- ## ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch: - 🔺 High-impact USD news (July 1st releases: Manufacturing PMI / employment preview) - 🔺 Overextension above supply zone without support → trap risk - 🔺 Bull trap risk if price spikes above 3,340 then sharply reverses --- ## ✅ Summary: > **Start of July** could fuel volatility and directional momentum. > The structure is clearly bullish short-term, but upper liquidity zones remain **highly reactive**. > Smart traders will wait for reaction at the 3,340–3,350 SH zone before overcommitting. **Structure:** 🔴 bearish momentum **Efficiency:** ✅ Clean **Liquidity:** 🔺 Above SH & Below recent HL 📊 Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by mmozafari1357
Gold has shown signs of recovery DowntrendXAUUSD Gold Technical Outlook – June 30 Gold has shown signs of recovery at the start of the session, largely supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. However, the upside remains uncertain as long as the price stays below key resistance zones. Gold is still in a downtrend Price action suggests a potential correction phase Key resistance area lies between 3294 – 3312 Failure to break this zone keeps the bearish pressure intact. If the price fails to hold above 3272, further downside targets are Key Levels: Resistance: 3294 / 3305 / 3312 Support: 3272 / 3255 / 3245 You may find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for better analysis share with you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrMartin_11
1
XAUUSD:Today's Trading Strategy Gold retreated in the sub-session, I have personally increased my long position near 3331, the overall trend is bullish unchanged, the median strategy is patient to rise. If you are trading short, you can go long at 3325-3330 and leave at 3340-45. The same can be said if you want to solve the problem; Trade according to your trading preferences and risk tolerance. More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Boooob_
GOLD GOLD ,newyork gold dealers reacted early enough avoiding my aim sell zone of 3378-3385. while we accept that price action will do what ever it wants ,so we accept the new cross at 3357 and took over 100pips from that bearish drop . we are on a strong 2hr cross and a demand floor ,if we sustains above this level we could be buying above 3357 to test 3385-3378 which will expose 3400 .,but if buyers fail from this level we are going to sell in line with the sentiment of the market. trading forex, commodities is based on probability
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Just a quick update on my trade. I thought on the last 30 min. candle I was going to get taken out. Normally I would close half the trade to minimize loss but I am using a microlot size and I am going to let it ride. Let's see if we start pushing down or if my Stop Loss get hit. I am optimistic and looking for that push down to correct the move from the overnight sessions. Let's see how it plays out. Big G gets a shout out. Be well and trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by musclemilk0075
Gold Trade Plan 01/07/2025Dear Traders, On the 1-hour timeframe for XAUUSD (Gold Spot vs. USD): ✅ The price has made a strong bullish move and is now testing a key resistance zone between 3345 and 3360. This zone has acted as both support and resistance in the past, making it a strong area of interest. 📉 We can observe upper wicks forming on the candles, suggesting buying pressure is weakening. The red dashed line on the chart indicates a potential bearish reversal scenario. 🔻 If the price fails to break and close above this resistance with strength, we could see a correction toward the 3290 to 3260 zone. 💡 Unless the price breaks above 3360 and closes strongly, long positions carry higher risk at the moment.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by alirezak
Beware of gold, false rise and real fall 💡Message Strategy The global economic uncertainty has intensified recently, and the gold market has performed well. On Monday, the price of gold rose by 0.87%, hitting a bottom of $3247.87 per ounce before rebounding strongly. The upward trend continued in early trading on Tuesday. In the second quarter, the price of gold rose by 5.5%, rising for two consecutive quarters. The main reason for this round of gold price rise is the weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index has recorded its worst performance in the first half of the year since the 1970s. Market concerns about the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and uncertainty in trade agreements have weakened the attractiveness of the US dollar. At the same time, global trade and geopolitical fluctuations, such as the Sino-US rare earth agreement, the progress of US-EU trade negotiations, and the uncertainty of the tariff deadline on July 9, have strengthened the safe-haven properties of gold. This week's focus is on Thursday's US non-farm payrolls report for June. The market expects 110,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, which will directly affect the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates, the market generally expects that interest rate cuts will be resumed in September, and the annual interest rate cut may reach 66 basis points. Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve has also increased policy uncertainty. Gold is driven up by multiple factors, but its future trend still depends on employment, inflation and tariff policies. Investors need to pay close attention to data and policy developments. 📊Technical aspects Gold hit bottom and rebounded during the early trading session on Monday, and the price stopped after touching the previous low. The price stopped after touching the four-hour resistance position before the European session. The European session was under pressure before breaking through the four-hour resistance. After that, the U.S. session had consecutive positive days, and the price did not fall. Instead, it further broke through the four-hour resistance position, which means that the price still has the performance of testing the daily level resistance area. We will continue to follow the key breakthrough of 3300 on Monday and pay attention to the 3350-3360 area and then look at the pressure. According to the daily level, after the price broke through the daily support last week, the price continued to rely on the daily resistance to bear pressure. At present, the daily resistance is at the 3360 area resistance. Below this position, gold can continue to be short. According to the four-hour level, the four-hour key position is the key to our emphasis on short-term trends. Yesterday, the price broke through the four-hour resistance and is expected to adjust further. The current four-hour support is in the 3300 area. The price is short-term bullish above this position. After the subsequent high, it is expected to fall further after breaking the four-hour support again. From the one-hour level, yesterday's strong closing, today's early trading again directly broke through yesterday's high position, so today's early trading low became the key. The price above this position tends to continue to test the daily resistance of 3360, so we will first look at the rebound, and wait until the price touches the daily resistance of 3350-3360, and then pay attention to further anti-K signals to see pressure. 💰Strategy Package Short Position：3350-3360，SL：3370，Target: 3315-3300
TVC:GOLDShort
by TheodoreSilas
XAUUSD (GOLD/USD) Breakdown 🔴 1. UT in Phase B (Upthrust = Trap) This move above the previous high was likely a liquidity grab, not a real breakout. Price action showed rejection without follow-through — classic Wyckoff distribution behavior. → 📉 Smart money sells into retail buying. 🔴 2. SOW (Sign of Weakness) After the UT, price dumped aggressively and broke short-term support. This creates lower confidence in bullish continuation. → 📉 Weak hands shaken, structure looks heavy. 🔴 3. Bearish Structure (Waves i–ii–iii setting up) Wave I = first drop after the UT. Wave II = current bounce — looks corrective, not impulsive. Expecting Wave III = the next strong sell leg. → 🎯 Target: revisit 3,072 → 3,040 → PML (3,010) → even 2,955. 🔴 4. Volume Profile Confirmation Price is failing to hold the high-volume node (3,303–3,327). Below this = thin volume zone, which price tends to drop through quickly. → 🚨 Liquidity vacuum below. 🔴 5. Resistance Cluster Above Multiple key levels between 3,500–3,563 = heavy resistance. Also aligns with the invalidation zone for the bearish count. → ❌ If price moves above here with strength = bias invalidated.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spaceangel
Gold on upswing as expectedAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: Since #3,337.80 was neckline for upside Bull structure, I was aware if it gets invalidated to the downside, it will open doors for #3,327.80 extension (which held twice throughout late U.S. and Asian session). I don't expect much Selling action today however Bulls need another Fundamental push to invalidate wall of Resistances at #3,340's and #3,350's. I will continue Scalping as opportunity arise / no Swing orders." I have expected Gold to test upside extension where I Bought (Scalp of course) #3,342.80 twice towards #3,348.80 and re-Sold #3,357.80 - #3,362.80 belt many times (excellent returns). I will await area to be engulfed and only then make my move. As I am getting many Fundamental inquiries lately: Gold's current almost #2-Year perma-Bull outlook is driven by more than Fundamentals - rising Global debt, Central bank Buying (especially by China), and general declining trust in fiat currencies all play key roles in Gold's perma-Bull stance. It's considered undervalued by some part of my analysis when adjusted for Inflation and Money supply expansion (like #M2 growth). Gold acts as a Long-term hedge against currency devaluation and systemic Risk, especially during Global conflicts or financial crises. Mining costs are also on the rise while new discoveries are declining, which supports Higher future Prices. With ongoing de-Dollarization and interest in Gold-backed digital assets, the Long-term future of Gold looks structurally strong. My position: Gold is Trading within #3,350's belt which represents crossroads for the Short-term. Either #3,362.80 - #3,368.80 break-out to the upside towards #3,377.80 strong Resistance, or #3,342.80 - #3,352.80 break-out to the downside towards #3,327.80 Support. Current Price-action is ideal for Scalping since I don't expect major movement until tomorrow's NFP numbers.
TVC:GOLD
by goldenBear88
XAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly LowXAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly Low In mid-June 2025, demand for gold surged following reports of exchanged strikes between Israel and Iran, along with US bombings of Iran's nuclear facilities. As a so-called safe-haven asset, gold prices climbed towards $3,430. However, by the final day of June, the XAU/USD chart shows that gold had retreated to around $3,250, marking the lowest level in a month. Why Is the Gold Price Falling? On one hand, this reflects easing tensions in the Middle East, as a ceasefire—albeit fragile—between Israel and Iran remains in place. On the other hand, the risk of trade wars is also diminishing. According to media reports: → President Donald Trump announced last week that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China and hinted that a “very major” deal with India would follow soon. → The US is also close to concluding agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and many other countries are ongoing. Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart Looking at the broader picture, it is worth noting that gold prices in 2025 continue to move within a long-term upward channel (shown in blue), with the following key observations: → The channel’s median line acted as resistance (indicated by arrow 1); → The line dividing the lower half of the channel in half also showed signs of resistance (indicated by arrow 2). Now, gold is trading near the lower boundary of the channel – a key support level within the multi-month uptrend. Demand may begin to strengthen here, with long lower wicks on candles on the lower timeframes supporting this view. A rebound from the lower boundary is possible in early July, but how strong might it be? Note that bears have taken control of the $3,345 level (which has now flipped from support to resistance), and there are signs of a triple top pattern (A-B-C) forming near the $3,430 resistance. This raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the ascending channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
Gold Fails to Hold the Fear – Ceasefire Triggers 500+ Pip DropIn yesterday’s analysis, I pointed out that despite the weekend escalation in the middle-east, which triggered a gap up in Gold, the price action didn’t confirm the fear narrative. Gold failed to hold its gains – a clear sign of weakness. 📌 What happened next? Throughout the day, Gold attempted multiple pushes toward 3400 – but each effort was met with strong selling pressure. Then came the ceasefire announcement… and Gold dropped hard, now trading around 3320, locking in over 500 pips of profit from my short setup. ________________________________________ ❓ More importantly, what’s next for Gold? More important than the short-term noise is what the charts are now telling us: 📉 Weekly chart? Bearish. 🕯️ Daily chart? Also turned bearish after last week’s indecisive price action. ________________________________________ 📌 Strategy remains the same: I continue to sell rallies, and I’m now watching the 3280 support zone for a possible test in the coming hours. Patience. Discipline. Let the market come to you. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Critical moment! Where will gold go?After rebounding for two consecutive days, gold prices consolidated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Wednesday, hovering below a one-week high. Although the US dollar rebounded slightly and the market's improved risk appetite suppressed safe-haven demand, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and trade uncertainties limited the downside of gold prices. The market is waiting for the upcoming ADP and non-farm data to determine the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut. The key technical resistance is $3,358. Gold received a positive cross in June. At present, the monthly line has an upper shadow for three consecutive trading months, and the shadow is long, indicating that the upper selling pressure is relatively large; in this way, for the future market, we are more optimistic about the highs and falls. In the recent stage, gold is not interested in US data, but Trump frequently calls for the Fed to cut interest rates, which we still need to pay attention to. The sharp rise in gold in the past two days is not unrelated to the Fed's expectation of a rate cut. On the other hand, it is also related to the market rumor that the US President Trump's tariff deadline on July 9 is also related. If the US dollar index bottoms out and rebounds, ushering in a phased upward trend; then, it is bound to suppress gold. Short-term resistance is yesterday's high point 3350-3360 area. If it breaks above, it is expected to hit 3375-80, and further 3400 mark; before breaking above 3400 area, there is still a large sweep range. If it goes up, the bulls will have a wave of acceleration, and the upper 3425 and 3450 may even hit the historical high. For the day, the 5-day moving average 3315 area will form a strong support after breaking through. If it rebounds and rushes higher, it cannot break below. Once it breaks below, the market will continue to fall, further 3300~3295, and then 3275 and 3255~45 areas; that is, the rise on Monday and Tuesday means the end of the bulls. Therefore, in terms of operation, the short-term relies on the 3315-3325 area to support low longs, and if it rises, it will continue to short with reference to the resistance area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
1
XAUUSD 30/6 – 4/7/2025: Selling Pressure Builds - In the past week, gold OANDA:XAUUSD has been under consistent selling pressure due to the following key macro factors: - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) TVC:DXY surged, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold and leading to widespread sell-offs. - 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered around 4.30%–4.35% , reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. - Core PCE data for June indicated that inflation remains elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have temporarily eased, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal in the short term. ➤ As a result, these combined factors are applying downward pressure on XAUUSD, especially after price decisively broke the 3,300 USD support zone. 1. Technical Analysis of XAUUSD – Daily Timeframe On the D1 chart: - Price has broken below the key support zone 3,300 – 3,331 USD, confirming a short-term bearish structure. - The Fibonacci retracement from the 3,399 peak to the 3,295 low has completed its pullback to the 0.5–0.618 zone (3,345 – 3,359 ) but was strongly rejected by sellers. - Price is now trading below both EMA20 and EMA50, indicating strong bearish momentum. - RSI has turned back under 50 and has not yet reached oversold territory, suggesting further downside potential exists. 2. Key Resistance and Support Zones for XAUUSD Technical Role ( 3,345 – 3,359 ) - Major confluence resistance (Fibonacci 0.618 + supply) ( 3,295 – 3,300 ) - Immediate resistance zone (post-breakdown retest) ( 3,260 – 3,235 ) - Short-term support and potential buy interest ( 3,223 – 3,205 ) - Strong medium-term support (Fibonacci 1.0 + April lows) 3. Trading Strategy for XAUUSD This Week (30/6 – 4/7/2025) Strategy 1 – Favor Short Positions Aligned with Bearish Momentum Entry: Sell near 3,295 – 3,300 (anticipating resistance retest) Stop Loss: 3,304 Take Profit 1: 3,290 Take Profit 2: 3,285 Take Profit 3: 3,275 Strategy 2 – Countertrend Buy at Key Support with Confirmation Entry: Buy near 3,235 – 3,240 only if bullish reversal candles (pin bar or bullish engulfing) appear on H4 or D1 Stop Loss: 3,230 Take Profit 1: 3,245 Take Profit 2: 3,250 Take Profit 3: 3,260 Ps : XAUUSD is currently in a downward correction phase, with the next target zone lying between 3,235 – 3,260 USD. The inability to hold above 3,300 confirms that sellers remain in control. The most favorable approach this week is to sell on rallies, especially near former support-turned-resistance zones. Stay vigilant, follow updated price action closely, and strictly manage risk to protect your capital. Follow for more high-probability strategies throughout the week – and save this idea if you find it valuable to your trading journey. Analysis by @Henrybillion
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Henrybillion
5
stable tariffs, gold price impact reduction✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 06/30/2025 - 07/04/2025 ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices plunged over 1.5% on Friday as risk appetite strengthened, fueled by a combination of positive geopolitical and economic developments. Easing tensions between Israel and Iran, the formal trade agreement between the United States and China, and continued efforts by Washington to strike new commercial deals with global partners lifted market sentiment—dampening demand for safe-haven assets like bullion. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,274, having pulled back from an earlier high of $3,328. On Thursday, the White House confirmed the signing of a long-awaited trade pact with China, marking an official end to the protracted trade war. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also indicated that additional agreements may be finalized ahead of the July 9 deadline ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Information on tariff negotiations is gradually becoming stable and favorable. Information on inflation showing signs of increasing, dxy increase is also a temporary pressure causing gold price to return to the 3200 mark. 🔥 Technically: Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows: Resistance: $3307, $3348, $3390 Support: $3248, $3202 🔥 NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account - The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
2
#XAU/USD SELL TRADE SETUP [SHORT]In this analysis we're focusing on 2H timeframe. As we know, Gold is moving in a strong bearish trend. The best selling zone is 3295 - 3305 key levels area. If gold encounters rejection from this zone, we can anticipate a potential decline in price towards its targeted levels. Target 1:3260 Target 2:3250 Target 3:3240 Wait for a retracement to sell with strong confirmation and proper risk management. #GOLD 2H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction🟨 XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction – Eyes on Reversal Zone FaithDrivenTrades | July 2, 2025 Gold continues its bullish climb toward a possible intraday reversal zone (3371–3380). Technicals show a clean sweep of previous liquidity + bullish candle confirmation on H1. However, the broader fundamental backdrop now tilts toward short-term USD strength due to: 🔻 ADP NFP Miss: ADP: 33K vs 99K forecast Indicates weaker labor market, but Gold's reaction muted due to anticipation of Friday’s NFP and mixed inflation fears. 📊 Oil Inventory Surplus: Crude: +3.845M vs -2.7M expected Suggests soft demand → deflationary pressure → less urgency for Fed rate cuts. 📰 Trump Tariff Headlines: Trump announces new 20%-40% tariffs with Vietnam. Short-term USD pressure on trade uncertainty, but market sees longer-term USD safe-haven appeal. 📉 Fed Cuts Still Priced In (Sept, Dec): CME Fed Futures show 2 rate cuts expected → supports bullish gold structure long-term However, dollar’s resilience from ISM rebound + JOLTS adds near-term volatility 🧠 Market Sentiment Summary: Macro: Mixed → USD Strengthening Short-Term Risk: Sentiment cautious, NFP Friday key Bias: Intraday Bearish Correction Possible, bigger trend still bullish
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FaithdrivenTrades