XAUUSD H4 Outlook – Full Structure & Macro | July 21, 2025Hello, GoldMinds! 💙
After a volatile week, gold remains caught in a wide H4 range, ping-ponging between structural supply and demand. Let’s break down the current picture so you can navigate the next big moves with confidence.
🌍 Macro & Bias
Macro context:
Last week’s US CPI print triggered a temporary rally, but gold failed to hold above resistance and quickly reversed as the dollar strengthened. Next week brings Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, global PMI numbers, and jobless claims—all catalysts for new volatility.
Bias:
Neutral on H4:
Gold is consolidating inside a broad sideways range.
The market is waiting for a catalyst to break above 3375 or below 3310 before showing a real trend.
🔸 Structural Key Supply Zones (Above Price)
1️⃣ 3357–3375 | Main H4 Supply
Why it matters:
Aggressive NY and CPI rallies have been sold off here; price rejected every attempt to close above 3375. OB, liquidity cluster, inducement—this is the first real ceiling above price.
Trade logic:
Watch for M15/H1 reversal or exhaustion. No clean break = supply remains active.
2️⃣ 3384–3400 | Macro Supply
Why it matters:
All failed breakouts from early summer were stopped in this block. Liquidity pool and macro OB; every test led to sharp pullbacks.
Trade logic:
Avoid FOMO—only short with confirmation of rejection.
3️⃣ 3410–3425 | Extreme Supply
Why it matters:
The final upper ceiling for now. Any spike here is likely to see big profit-taking and volatility.
🔹 Structural Key Demand Zones (Below Price)
1️⃣ 3330–3310 | Main H4 Demand
Why it matters:
All major dips last week bounced here—bulls are active in this OB. It’s the base of the current “micro-range,” with clear LTF inducement and high volume.
Trade logic:
Look for bullish reversal (M15/H1) before trusting any long from here.
2️⃣ 3295–3275 | Swing Demand / Discount Zone
Why it matters:
The main structure support for July. Strong OB, historic liquidity sweeps—each deep flush has brought responsive buyers.
Trade logic:
Watch for reaction, but don’t knife-catch without a clear structure break.
3️⃣ 3250–3225 | Extreme Demand / HTF Liquidity Pool
Why it matters:
The “final line” for bulls. This zone has absorbed all major liquidations and created swing reversals since early spring.
📊 H4 Structure Logic
Current play:
Gold is stuck in a structural cage between 3375 and 3310.
Until price closes outside these edges, every spike is likely a liquidity hunt.
Pro move:
Only react to confirmation in these zones—don’t force trades in the mid-range!
🧠 Game Plan
Set alerts at each supply & demand zone.
Wait for confirmation: M15/H1 CHoCH, BOS, wicks, or volume.
Let the news come to you: Powell & PMI will likely force a test of an edge; be patient.
💬 What’s your bias for the week? Drop it below and tag a friend!
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