Hensoldt (HAG) - Overly optimistic? [Bear Case]Business model: Hensoldt is a German defence-electronics pure-play: ground/air radars, optronics/periscopes, electronic warfare. Their order book and revenue backlog is benefiting from Europe’s continuing rearmament.
Why pricing looks rich: At ~€100+/share, the market appears to discount flawless conversion of the rearmament wave into sales and cash, sustained high-teens margins, and minimal programme/approval risk well beyond 2030. My GAAP-based DCF (9% discount, –1% terminal) values equity ≈ €20/share (DCF model snapshot), far below the market.
Trading multiples at today’s price (as of Sep ’25):
- EV/Rev: ~5× FY25.
- EV/E (GAAP): ~116× FY25, ~85× FY26, ~72× FY27
- Compared to other defence companies, these current and future multiples are far above the average, requiring much greater growth in income, which seems unlikely.
For today’s price to be ‘fair’, the market is effectively assuming:
- Hensoldt’s 2030 revenue guidance is exceeded and margins significantly improve from current levels.
- Contract wins versus close competitors in various revenue drivers, for example vs. Thales/Saab on large NATO sensor programmes (not just German programs).
Technicals:
The stock is approaching a recent all-time high, also corresponding with a Fib level as resistance, but with fading momentum, future defence spending globally already priced in, entering a short at €104.
