AlSmith22

AlSmith22

S&P Futures weekly chart analysis 5-25-25 Overall, a bear trend with a strong reversal, and now a L2 sell signal. The sell signal is right on the EMA, so a lower probability short for Bears, just like the buy on the bar of April 28th forced bulls to buy right at the EMA and bears got a scalp down. Likely that the bar of May 19th will trigger. If bears get a...

AlSmith22

H2 forming now should get triggered above 5777 Likely find resistance around 6000 and then an attept to go down More likely sellers above and another leg sideways to down The May bar right now is a bull bar, and likely to trigger the H1 but the last bar is a terrible buy signal. The last bar is a non-overlapping BO & PB in the same bar Remember that the monthly...

AlSmith22

4/27/2024 Daily Chart analysis Market is All-in-long, but the market tempo would suggest a pause or a pullback after 4 bull bars. Likely 1 more bar up before a pullback. Elements to note: Break of the broad bear channel down, an important component of a possible MTR setup. Notice the EMA...

AlSmith22

4/27/2025 Outside up bar last week needing continuation. Notice the bear bar of 2 weeks abo triggered and then reversed, trapping sellers. Buyers below. Outside up bars are expanding triangles. Likely we pulllback into the range of the bar, reverse and close above the bar. Good probability of trend continuation up. Momentum is...

AlSmith22

4-27-25 Update The big April bear bar went too far too fast to be sustainable for the bears Even if it had closed on it's low, that would have been terrible for the bears. Stop would have been too far away and would invite a fade. As it stands, it is a a bad bar for both bulls and bears. Bears see tremendous buying pressure, forming the large wick. But as is,...

AlSmith22

The very basic structure of price action is Spike, Pullback and Channel, final flag, double top and reverse to test the start of the channel. I would expect a minor reversal soon, since the market is so badly oversold, but there will be sellers above and a second leg will take the market to target. The lower probability event is a continued move straight to...

AlSmith22

Daily chart review 3-9-25 I see a bull flag wedge, with nested wedges as well, and a tight bear channel down. This week could see a push up from a double bottom to test prices above. Friday's reversal bar is the 3rd attempt for bulls to reverse this trend, increasing the likelihood of a significant pullback from this bearish channel. This week, I expect bullish...

AlSmith22

Weekly review 3-9-25 2 weeks ago saw a non-overlapping bear bar signaling likely continuation down. We have now completed a bull flag wedge pattern testing the breakout of the Sept 9th week. Last week's bar was strong, suggesting lower prices, but I expect a pullback first. This is a tight channel down, and the market is in AIS, and there will be sellers...

AlSmith22

3-9-25 Mnthly chart review Bear breakout, but from a bad buy signal. Likely 2 legs sideways to down from here. I think this is leg 1 Depending on your count, the trend up lasted 26 or 14 bars. You would expect a correction of half that many bars at least, meaning either 14 or 7 bars, sideways to down. We've had 4, meaning at least 3 more bars sideways to down...

AlSmith22

If the M pattern breaks out, likely target will be 5600 level. Most breakouts fail, so I'd look for a breakout, re-touch and fall to target. A slight breach is not enough to short at this level. Price could explode upward with one comment from you-know-who.

AlSmith22

45-min S&P Futures,, RTH (regular trading hours) Wedge failure is followed by 2 more legs down, a chart reset, and bearish breakout to the downside. Bulls have nothing to buy. 5700 area is magnet.

AlSmith22

Bearish microchannel, market is All-in-Short Bears will sell the Pullback and look for another leg down to test the previous breakout level. Market has been in a tight trading range. Bears will look to break out of the trading range with continued strong selling. Context on the Weekly chart is good for a stronger sell-off. Until that happens, bulls will...

AlSmith22

45-min chart Tight bear channel, 3 clear pushes down. Bears are unlikely to hold on to short positions too long. Likely a push up and then second leg down

AlSmith22

2-23-25 Last Thursday was an implied H1, late in a wedge expecting another leg up, a low probability buy. Bears sell aggressively. Price is in the middle of a tight TR, expect disappointment and failed BOs. Bulls are stuck at higher prices and will scale in looking to get to BE and entry, so sellers above. Bears that are short will scale in looking for a...

AlSmith22

Bear sell signal in the middle of the Trading Range and just above EMA. Many bulls will buy at the EMA, which has been support since November 23. However, context is good for a MTR. Market is at the top of a Spike and channel parabolic wedge. After wedge completion, expect Price to retest the start of the channel. This Friday is month end, adding to...

AlSmith22

2-19-25 S&P Weekly chart Jan 13 week, trap reversal. Two strong bars and pullback needs a 2nd leg up, in progress. Bears have NOTHING to sell. Bears had a chance with the Feb 3rd week, gapping down, but still closing bullish. Bulls will buy everything and pushing hard for targets above. Still, price seems labored and days see bulls taking quick profits.

AlSmith22

Likely to form a period of consolidation, 2 more legs up followed by larger reversal. Monthly chart looking like a mature parabolic wedge.

AlSmith22

Tight channel on the daily chart of the S&P. All-in-long, buy for any reason, except in need of a pullback. Likely trading range to form, pullback to be bought and trend resumption.