AndyM

AndyM

The trend still remains possessed by the triangle in wave 4. FOMC meeting is tomorrow, and waves E of major trends often end on the news. The news never define the market. Traders wait for the news not to trade the actual statistics or decision, but to see what the others will be doing in response to the news. A few seconds or minutes after the news hit the wire...

AndyM

The triangle in wave 4 looks very much completed. It is very likely that wave 5 has already begun, and the final countdown to the crash has started too. The clock is ticking. By August 23rd (very likely even earlier) the crash will not only begin, but it will already be wrapping up. SPX will be at 1500 or lower, while 10Y yield will reach 10%.

AndyM

Two bullish weeks ahead. The SPX is finally breaking out to new local highs within a correction that began in October. The move will be convincingly solid and powerful: bullish corrections end with fireworks, big breakouts, forcing everyone to drop any fears of a potential stocks meltdown. Currencies also prepare for a good move. Treasuries will buy the dip for...

AndyM

0.67 should be hit. 0.6440 as backup. In the next couple of weeks other xUSD pairs will go up, too. EURUSD will be the weakest performer, but 1.12..1.13 should be hit.

AndyM

Good rejection off 27k, Wave E is due, should reach above 34k.

AndyM

The move above 142.50 will complete the corrective uptrend that began in January.

AndyM

This will be the final push before the entire world descends into complete chaos in May-Sept.

AndyM

The complete structure of wave 4 will neatly resemble a classic triangle, only wave E will break to new highs. This is the last attempt of the market to buy the dip in Treasuries. (Also the last attempt of EURJPY to reach a new high - should stop around 157 next week). After that wave 5 of the downtrend in Treasuries will commence, targeting the peak of the...

AndyM

I still cannot confirm that the triangle in wave 4 has ended. Triangles take time to develop, but once they are over, wave 5 almost always takes less than 0.618 of the duration of wave 4 to compete. If W4 ended today, then the crash in Treasuries should end before 23 Aug 2023: by that time we will see 10Y at 10%.

AndyM

One new low is due. SPX should retest 4300. EURUSD may finally close the gap at 1.12, possibly hitting 1.14 in this final shot.

AndyM

Wave 5 is inevitable, only its time of flight is unknown. In a well-structured trend (and we have a perfect trend here), the time spent between points 3 and 5 is loosely related to the duration of 1-3. I have seen waves 5 hit top/bottom at 0.5..0.786 of this ratio. It's never a precise fib number, but 3-5 does tend to be faster than 1-3. Based on these...

AndyM

Don't underestimate the power of wave 5, especially in commodities, Gold, Silver, and now in crypto. 36000 may be tagged during the week-end.

AndyM

There is no more resistance left for the current uptrend in USDRUB. The weakening of the Ruble will continue throughout the 2023. It won't stop until it reaches 180-200 to the dollar.

AndyM

At this point there are just two scenarios for 2023 market development: 1. The market crash will happen entirely in April-June. 2. The sell-off will take the entire 2023. Looking at the logarithmic scale of some stocks I see that the crash may take a lot more than 2-3 months. I am 100% confident that April-May will deliver on its bearish promises, but the markets...

AndyM

There will be a minor new top the coming week, but that's it. The end of the bull market is coming to every market, some have already reversed, some still have to make one last top.

AndyM

I think I've decoded the market structure in TSLA. Let's see on Monday - if TSLA fails to reach 218, then the structure is confirmed, and all that's left is a devastating crash to below 40 in wave C of 5. And even if 218 is reached, then wave 5 is still due, only it will be ABC, but will take about the same time.

AndyM

4300 is back on the table again, accompanied by a new major low in VIX and (possibly) the last one multi-year high in EURJPY.

AndyM

One last move upwards, some range expansion to the upside, then green 5 will begin.