Crypto-Swing

Crypto-Swing

In this study, I consider the bear flag formation and the Elliott Wave count of this current consolidation period. In looking at the Elliott Wave structure of the consolidation, you will note two 3-wave movements connecting a well defined ABCDE triangle formation that looks to be completed. Combined together, these structures reflect another compound Double...

Crypto-Swing

In this chart I look at the Bear Flag formation that is looking to break and consider the downside projection to $11.8k seems very likely given the macro economic factors impacting the crypto markets at the moment. With unconfirmed support within reach now at around the $12k level, there is also a technical reason in the chart for price to drop. Assuming support...

Crypto-Swing

In this chart I look at some basic overlays to the BTC chart; a Fibonacci channel, the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and the untested support level at $12k. I note the 1W 300MA is now above the prior low, which means price will have to break this level to find a new bear market bottom. 1D 50MA is currently the only MA offering support (at $19.6k) and if price...

Crypto-Swing

In this study I pose the question, "Have we just seen the completion of a wave 4?" In the context of the bear market corrective structure, it is very feasible that BTC is in a wave 4 of its final C-wave move to complete its bottom. I look at the structure of the price action sine the June low and map out a Double Three Elliott Wave compound corrective structure...

Crypto-Swing

In this chart I look at the Bull Flag that has formed since Bitcoin has broken above its long-term bear market resistance trendline. This projects a rally towards $23k should price break through the flag formation to the upside. This level coincides with a zone of past resistance and also a Fibonacci trendline projection from the declining bear market channel. I...

Crypto-Swing Updated 

With the bearish cross of the MACD indicator, together with contemporaneous break of the higher-lows trendline in the RSI, as a signal for a precipitous price decline. In this chart I short the previous 4 such events that have occurred within this Bitcoin bear market and the respective declines in price, ranging from 23% through to 46% from the cross of the RSI...

Crypto-Swing

In this 4-hr chart of Bitcoin, we can see the continuation of the bullish price divergence that has existed since around August 21, with price making lower-lows while both the RSI and MACD are making higher-lows. This gives some hope for a bullish change in momentum and reason to expect the Symmetrical Triangle that has formed during the current period of price...

Crypto-Swing

Throughout the course of this bear market in Bitcoin and since the All-time High was set at $69k on November 10, 2021, the RSI in the 4-hr chart has 7 times exceeded the 73 level in the over-bought region. On the past 6 occurrences this indicator pulled back to under 30 and into the oversold territory. In this latest occurrence, price is hovering precariously in...

Crypto-Swing

In this 4-hour chart we see price has broken out of the descending triangle and come back to test it as support. This could easily prove to be a false break-out, however, with the price divergence in the RSI and MACD, the potential for a trend reversal is looking strong as long as price can hold above the triangle. What do you think, is a false break or...

Crypto-Swing

Multiple rejections at the 1D 100MA (light blue line) saw a break in the multi-week RSI support line and a cascading price drop of almost 20% in 4 days. All the way down to the bottom of the rising channel, until finding a strong support level at $20.7k. Price has since bounced a little back above $21k, but with strengthening bearish momentum seen in the MACD....

Crypto-Swing

While SHIB consolidates its 40% gain of yesterday, I was wondering whether it might be a good time to take a closer look at BTC. So here goes. However, before I do, what does Elon Musk think? Well, he thinks that we are “past peak inflation”. - Source: www.bloomberg.com Does this give the US Federal Reserve cover to ease its interest rate hiking policy...

Crypto-Swing

As Bitcoin continues to show its growing technical strength since I last shared this chart, I thought it might be a good time to revisit this comparative analysis of bear market bottoms - 2015 (right), 2018 (middle) and 2022 (left) The first thing to note about this comparison is the similarities that only become visible when the timeframes are compressed and in...

Crypto-Swing

Looking at this weekly chart of Bitcoin in the Logarithmic price scale, one has to wonder at the significance of -0.22 on the LMACD indicator. The bottom of every bear market in Bitcoin since 2012, which I simply every bear market in the history of Bitcoin, has occurred when the LMACD has turned up to a positive inclination after touching the -0.22...

Crypto-Swing

In this chart I overlay the following cycles: - Property Cycle (W. D. Gann) - Kondratieff Cycle - Generations Cycle (Strauss & Howe, 4th Turning) - Solar Sun Spot Cycle (Belgium Solar Observatory) - The Long Cycle (My Identified 108 year Long Cycle linking the above cycles together) - Grand Solar Cycle - (Zharkova, K.) I have also added historical events...

Crypto-Swing Updated 

Here’s an interesting view of the current daily BTC price action (left) compared against a 2-day perspective of the 2018 bear market bottom (centre) and a 3-day perspective of the 2015 bear market bottom (right). “Interesting” because there is a very similar narrative apparent when viewed in this way. The common narrative for 2015 and 2018 is: A rally to the...

Crypto-Swing

With BTC retracing from its recent gains back to $22.9k it has found a critical support level in both Price and in the RSI. RSI - You will note that at every occurrence in this bear market where the indicated support level was broken or was confirmed as resistance, price gave up all recent gains and often found new lows. Moving Averages - The 1W 200MA...

Crypto-Swing Updated 

Since the June 18 low of $879 on the 1W 300SMA, Ethereum has rallied over 89% to $1,664 on July 24, to be rejected by the 1W 200EMA. Since then it has dropped by 18% and is now consolidating at $1,438. This appears to all be on the expectation that the conversion to Ethereum 2.0 and its new PoS protocol is going according to plan. Clearly the performance and...

Crypto-Swing

In this daily chart of BTC I identify the 1W 200EMA (green line) as a pivotal line of past support (green arrow) that is now confirm resistance (red arrow) and suggest this as the level the currency corrective move upward might reach before returning to the downward trend. The proximity of the 1W 200EMA to the upper line of resistance of the long-term downward...