Gold_Market_Intel

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

Core Drivers Expectations of Easing Support Gold Prices The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September with a probability exceeding 90%, potentially leading to two rate cuts this year. This lowers the cost of holding gold, an interest-free asset, and strengthens the medium- to long-term bullish outlook. A modest rebound in...

Gold_Market_Intel

I. Current Gold Market Overview Fundamental Factors Safe-haven demand: Global trade tensions (such as Trump's tariff policy) and expectations of a September Fed rate cut continue to support gold prices. Impact of the US dollar's trend: If the US dollar weakens due to weak economic data (such as the job market), gold prices may rise further; conversely, if the US...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

Core Drivers Bullish for Gold Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut: Weak US economic data (narrowing trade deficit, stagnant services sector) strengthens the probability of a September rate cut, putting pressure on the US dollar and boosting gold. Risk aversion: The escalation of Trump's tariff policy and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's personnel changes have...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

I. Market Background and Recent Developments Fundamental Drivers Rising Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut: Recent weak US economic data (non-farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, etc.) has reinforced market bets on a September rate cut, which is bullish for gold in the medium and long term. Safe-haven Demand: Intensified global trade tensions (such as the US-China...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

I. Core Fundamentals The Game of Bulls and Bears Bullish Factors: 90% probability of a September Fed rate cut (weak non-farm payrolls reinforce easing expectations, suppressing the US dollar). Escalating geopolitical risks (Middle East situation, trade frictions) stimulate safe-haven demand. Technical Analysis: Weekly chart stabilizes (a long lower shadow...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

I. Core Driver: Surprise in Non-Farm Payrolls Strengthens Rate Cut Expectations July's non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations Market Reaction: Gold Soars, US Dollar Plummets Gold surged over $60 in a single day (3300 → 3362), breaking through key resistance, and technically shifting to a strong bullish bias. The US dollar index plummeted,...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

I. Core Driver: Surprise in Non-Farm Payrolls Strengthens Rate Cut Expectations July's non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations Market Reaction: Gold Soars, US Dollar Plummets Gold surged over $60 in a single day (3300 → 3362), breaking through key resistance, and technically shifting to a strong bullish bias. The US dollar index plummeted,...

Gold_Market_Intel

Core Logic: A strong dollar + a hawkish Fed + strong economic data = gold under pressure The Fed's policy tone: The July interest rate decision remained unchanged, while Powell's hawkish comments dampened expectations of a rate cut. The market's probability of a September rate cut has fallen below 20%. The US dollar index has broken through 99.99, reaching a...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

Core logic sorting Influence of news: The conclusion of the trade agreement between Europe and the United States weakens the demand for safe-haven, but the support for buying on dips is obvious. Multiple risk events this week (Fed resolution, non-agricultural data, PCE inflation, etc.) may trigger fluctuations. Key technical positions: Weekly level: 3355 is...

Gold_Market_Intel

Core Logic Triple Verified Federal Divergence Dovish Camp Expands: Bowman and Waller Clearly Support Rate Cuts; New Board Members Strengthen Expectations of a September Rate Cut Powell Walks a Tightrope: Balancing "Stabilizing Employment" and "Inflation Risks"; Be Wary of His Use of "Learning Periods" Vague terms such as "Period" are used. Key USD threshold:...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

Core logic: Risk aversion cools down + dollar strengthens, gold is under pressure Weakened risk aversion demand: Despite frequent geopolitical risk events, there has been no panic buying in the market, and the safe-haven property of gold has not been effectively exerted. Strong suppression of the US dollar: US economic data is stable, the US dollar continues to...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

Core logic: Risk aversion cools down + dollar strengthens, gold is under pressure Weakened risk aversion demand: Despite frequent geopolitical risk events, there has been no panic buying in the market, and the safe-haven property of gold has not been effectively exerted. Strong suppression of the US dollar: US economic data is stable, the US dollar continues to...

Gold_Market_Intel

Market core logic Risk aversion cools down: The easing of US-Japan and US-EU trade negotiations (auto tariffs reduced to 15%) weakens the safe-haven demand for gold, and market risk appetite increases. If the US and Europe reach an agreement before August 1, gold may be further under pressure. Impact of the US dollar trend: The short-term rebound of the US...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

1. Analysis of market dynamics Core driving factors Geopolitical risk premium: The current market's concerns about the tariff negotiations on August 1 continue to ferment, and safe-haven funds continue to flow into the gold market US dollar weak cycle: The US dollar index fell below the key support of 97.5, hitting a two-week low, forming a continuous support...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

I. Key points of market fundamentals Geopolitical risks dominate gold prices: The situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, and risk aversion has pushed gold to break through the key psychological level of $3,400/ounce. If the conflict escalates (such as expanding to neighboring countries), gold prices may accelerate their rise, and in extreme cases,...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

1. Core driving factors (news) Safe-haven demand supports gold prices The uncertainty of US tariff policy (the deadline of August 1 is approaching) may cause market fluctuations, and gold is favored as a safe-haven asset. Fed dovish expectations: The market is paying attention to Powell's speech. If a rate cut signal is released, it will be good for gold (the...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

1. Core logic: The game between long and short positions intensifies, and gold fluctuates at high levels to be broken Key factors on the news The dollar and U.S. bond yields are suppressed: The strong U.S. economic data (retail sales, unemployment benefits) support the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is bearish for gold in the short term. Inflation...

Gold_Market_Intel Updated 

1. Core logic: The game between long and short positions intensifies, and gold fluctuates at high levels to be broken Key factors on the news The dollar and U.S. bond yields are suppressed: The strong U.S. economic data (retail sales, unemployment benefits) support the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is bearish for gold in the short term. Inflation...