MadButcherWA

MadButcherWA Updated 

If you look back at some of my prior posts you'll see that gold is in the middle of an Elliot Wave 5 move at the moment. Having just broken through the high point of the previous breakout, the congestion zone it set after breakout was above the previous 12 month high, rather than below it, setting us up for the high probability of another strong move up, which I...

MadButcherWA

We may be seeing the breakout of an inverse head and shoulders here; it is a pretty ugly looking pattern but I'm pretty certain that's what I'm looking at. It looks like the neckline is the blue sloping line, which if correct has just begun to breakout now. A break above that line has turned into a congestion zone and retest. Volume on the left and middle shoulder...

MadButcherWA Updated 

This is a long term chart, but long term plays are always pretty good to sit on. There was a massive long term trend that ended once it put in a 2B (A low, and then a higher low) which created a point for the new trend to begin. As soon as the price action has crossed above the trend line it has hit its head again the point which the price fell off the chart...

MadButcherWA Updated 

This is a pretty basic trade. After a very long downtrend the price has reached the bottom and a triple bottom has formed. The lower horizontal trend line indicates the immediate short term price target, however we can use this for a trigger in combination with a cross on the 200 day MA. Now normally the peak line of the triple bottom will be flat, as indicated by...

MadButcherWA Updated 

There is a cluster of patters and signals here. I've turned off all my regular indicators as they are just noise given the amount of other signals we have. The first thing happening here is that there is an Elliot wave push happening. The wave three has occurred and that is generally the longest push of the wave so I think our price target will be a congestion...

MadButcherWA

A broken clock is right twice a day, and an under performing lamp warehouse has a rerate every 1 and a 1/4 years. There is a heavy down trend that has begun since this thing appreciated after its IPO. since then there has been a cyclical run of price drops like clock work. These are more like zones of trading, where the rerate brings about a reassessment of the...

MadButcherWA

I would estimate 80% of my bitcoin trades have been wrong, despite having made a heap of money out of Bitcoin. That’s an important lesson for any trader: you can be wrong as many times as you want, but you need to learn to manage your risk well, and accept when you are losing quickly to minimise losses. Then when you’re right let those winners ride without getting...

MadButcherWA

A quick little pop above a long term trend line has retraced and proven the breakout has in fact occurred by return to the trend line from which it broke above. The fat red candle and the fat green candle border some sort of consolidation zone which must have acted as a reversal point. I will be looking for the price action to get above where I have set my stop...

MadButcherWA

its pretty scraggly looking, but I'm certain that's an ascending inverted scallop. The bounce off the 200 week MA gives me confidence that this could be moving upwards and beginning a new trend. However before I get in on that trend I would lke to see a close or two on the weekly candle above the level of resistance I've got drawn in. That would then turn into a...

MadButcherWA

Fat candles are a good indicator of a change in direction. Especially when you see them after a period of flat trading. The flat trading can mean accumulation of big holders on before a pop, or it can mean an unexpected news drop. Fundamentals aren't my thing, But I can see that we have a very long term down trend that has rejected a change many times. The fat...

MadButcherWA

I cant pick exactly what this pattern is. I thought it was a triple bottom at first, but triple bottoms don't slope down like that. The broadening Wedge could fit it, but it doesn't meet the bottom trend line before an attack on the upper, plus there is a volume spike at the front of the pattern? It could be a simple double bottom but I feel there is a lot more...

MadButcherWA Updated 

There is a trendline that stretches back to the beginning of time on this chart and the stock marches forward. It appears though that a top may have been reached. However, I'm not yet convince. We have two conflicting patterns here. A double top that indicates a fairly savage drop. Or a pennant which makes up the second peak that indicates a resumption. Of trend....

MadButcherWA

“Hmmm, whats corn up to?” Glad you asked. Looks like harvest is upon us. All commodities are cyclical, and agricultural commodities are seasonally cyclical. The red cycle lines go back to when Noah came off the ark and so you could almost set this to your clock. Now I’m not about to speculate what market conditions cause the price to normally rise in corn; go ask...

MadButcherWA Updated 

After a long downtrend it looks like PSC has had some breakout on the fundamental side (lord knows what, I don't have time for that stuff) and the price has popped. Given this massive spinning top candle I think the price is going to consolidate here for a bit and form a pennant or a congestion zone as the price returns to the 200 MA and the peak line of the...

MadButcherWA

I've been watching that triangle fill out for years now. Maybe that grey trendline is the prevailing trade direction, but there is every chance this break could fail like it has previously and return to fill out the triangle further. Time will tell.

MadButcherWA Updated 

I can’t remember if it was here or somewhere else that I posted golds breakout, but in any case, it looks like the longer overall breakout is continuing. At the moment I think we’re in a wave 4 consolidation at the moment that will last till about December this year. At which point we’re looking at a push to the resistance level of the previous high made. Not the...

MadButcherWA Updated 

We have a repeating set of triangles that have moved into a broader triangle. Each of the triangles are roughly the same length and the move as the first ended is very sudden. If this is a repeating pattern we will be looking for a spike in volume as the move begins. The move should begin either in the next candle or the one thereafter, afterwards I would begin to...

MadButcherWA

I was actually pretty bulish about this when I first looked at it, but once I realised its financial management I remembered the golden rule. If the US 5 year goes up, the Aussie share market goes up. And here we go. You can see overlayed the US 5 Year bond yield follows the price action pretty closely ( other way round, lol). The correlation drops off in August...