MrFleck

MrFleck

I'm still not convinced of this rally. I'll be patient. My puts don't expire till December.

MrFleck

This area should hold. I believe DXY might tap 119, before a reasonable pullback

MrFleck

If the momentum continues, this might hit 5% in 2-3 weeks. Not looking good for stocks

MrFleck

Everyone are so bulled up. My gut feeling says we die next week. I have started a small short position today. 320 - 330 will be the potential intermediate term bottom before a larger zig zag correction to >400.

MrFleck

I exited all my longs today. I opened a starter short position (just 1/5th of total size intended). Will add more if ES gets to 3800

MrFleck

I am going short here. Momentum slowing down (not a good sign in a bear market). Market failed to break this supply zone despite multiple attempts. I still have a small call position (runners) which I will be closing at market open.

MrFleck

I just noticed that the price action is similar to May- June; If SPY is to repeat the same pattern, it might go as high as 387 in the next few weeks before the next leg down

MrFleck

I expect one of these 4 scenarios to play out. I am mostly cash right now and wanna keep an open mind going into the next few weeks. This last leg down will pay out big if you time it well.

MrFleck

I would wait for a pop to 165 and short it. It has a long way to go down.

MrFleck

Above 4000, this count will be invalid. Play safe boys.

MrFleck

With the delivery miss, I won't be surprised to see a sell off. 255 critical support.

MrFleck

If AAPL breaks 137, it means "game over" for the market. If this level holds, we can see a small rally. We shall see. The weight of the entire market is on the shoulder of a company that sells same phone under different name every year and whose major manufacturing is in China. What could go wrong?

MrFleck

To be honest, I will play only with money I can afford to lose at this point. But this is going to be an all or not trade.

MrFleck

I wont be timing the next bounce. I am just gonna hold my puts through next wave 4. I might even average down if necessary. I will sell my puts only at 3200 (end of wave 5)

MrFleck

Check out my previous analysis on SPY (Part 1 one of "What if?" series Still has a ling way to go. We are just starting.

MrFleck

A bounce to 105 will be awesome. Target 85. If 85 is broken, then this will see a bigger correction

MrFleck

50 is an absolutely critical level for MU. This has to hold. Although if 50 breaks, I will be looking for short opportunity.

MrFleck

I have never seen anything more disciplined and structured than this sell off. Extremely well constructed randomness.