Nicklaus68

Nicklaus68

AAII has an excel spreadsheet of their sentiment survey that goes all the way back to 1987. Last week was the highest bearish sentiment week they've ever had at 60.87%! www.aaii.com In 2000 the highest bear sentiment it ever got was 51.1%. In the week ending 10/9/08 it peaked at 60.84%. The US100 jumped 15% the next week, but the bottom was a month...

Nicklaus68

Make of this what you will. I'm leaning toward a drop in VIX rather than running to great depression levels from here.

Nicklaus68

If it's anything like 2000 and 2008, the monthly fast stoch should stay oversold no more than 15 months. However, in the case of 2000, this doesn't necessarily mean bottom; that came at 24 months. The true bottom is to be confirmed by blackcat's "Whale Jumping Out of the Ocean" indicator, which I highly recommend. If the channel from 2008 breaks, QQQ ~260, there...

Nicklaus68

This excerpt is from How To Sell Stocks Short by William J. O'Neill. He's describing his famous "follow-through day" tp confirm reversals. It's a short and sweet read with tons of chart examples. smile.amazon.com The "volume-drop-off = reversal" phenomenon might not be explicitly stated in the book, but is self-evident and demonstrated in the ideas below.

Nicklaus68

The amount of houses on the market and the death of Mortgage Backed Securities seems to be the elephant in the room once again, like 2008. Nobody is talking about it. Pundits dismiss it, cause "we had tighter loan requirements for 0% mortgages"; yeah and no anks want to hold those low-yield mortgage,s as the $SPMB chart shows. They'd rather buy your house back...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Can't post an idea with 1min charts, but I'll show it below. Whenever you see 1min candles with huge wicks that seem to settle instantly, they are Darkpool transactions. It means some big money decided buy/sell a large block and found a seller/buyer in the darkpool. They agreed on a price that is roughly half of the candle's range. The transaction is already...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

It should test the neckline again at least. From there it's anyone's guess, but I'm leaning bearish. September Trip witch is right around the corner and the market pivoted down right at August Monthly expiry. Perhaps it slides into Trip Witch and bounces out. Should be another inflection point either way.

Nicklaus68

Whenever ETH market cap approaches 50% of BTC market cap, the BTC-ETH plot in yellow, there is a sell off. However, in recent years ETH has been holding up better and gaining ground on BTC. This means money is flowing from BTC into ETH. As BTC-ETH nears 0 we should finally see ETH break out above it. Perhaps even this time! However there should be more pain in the...

Nicklaus68

We're about to make history y'all! But not for a good reason... We're breaking out of the interest rate bear trend we've been in for over 35 years. We used to raise interest rates to help control the debt; but after we abandoned the gold standard it didn't work so well. Going forward the economy could handle less and less rate hikes, while debt sky-rocketed....

Nicklaus68 Updated 

First target 12850 seems highly likely, but after that there are several scenarios. I'm favoring the short side, but support at or above 12.8k would crush that.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Apple's cell phone sales have dropped, while prices keep going up and the market is saturated. The technology has plateaued. What are they gonna do, put 6 cameras on the next one? The phones have gotten so expensive they're talking about renting them out... your phone will be property of Apple... not gonna fly. That's why they've pivoted away from the phone...

Nicklaus68

China's economy is in deep trouble and their bank keeps slashing rates. The yuan is getting slaughtered and it's just beginning. Meanwhile the euro is also getting hammered because they can't and won't keep pace with the Fed's hikes. This all spells more bull run for USD & DXY. I see 115-120 DXY by Q1 if not sooner.

Nicklaus68

For some reason, VIX loves to make support levels in 3 point increments. It's been steadily rising since 2018 and I believe we'll see support around VIX 18. You can see around 2000 and 2008 VIX found support in the 16.5-19 range for years at a time. I believe it will do that again for the next couple years. Now, locally VIX seems to have flattened out and it...

Nicklaus68

I took a bar pattern of 2008 and overlaid it on 2022; using the same number of bars and matching up the first -20% dips. The similarities are striking.

Nicklaus68

March and September Trip Witch are the most turbulent of the quarterly Trip Witches. If you look up Major crashes in the U.S. markets, most happened Jan-Mar or Sept-Dec. So big money likes to get ahead of these Options expiries, which you can see in the options expiry weeks of the two months before Sept and March. During the bull runs, the first month's OpEx...

Nicklaus68

We're quickly approaching all time lows on the 10yr-2yr yield inversion chart. However, in the past the rates inverted at the end of the rate hike cycle. This time we inverted from the start of the hikes and aren't even half way to the Fed's goal of 3.5%. So we are in uncharted territory with the bond market. Note, crashes followed the yield inversion, as rates...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

If we hold the current fork channel until the end of the year, QQQ will be under $100. We'll snap pre-covid highs by August, hit near 2000 highs around Oct. If this happens, it will take over 10 years to recover. 2000 crash took 16 years to retrace. I hope this isn't the case. It could break out of the channel around Pre-covid highs. The 3rd wave extension(5...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

As it stands, it's a perfect A=C corrective. Push the 3rd leg much further and it's a more likely 5 wave down. Plot guesses are just general levels, not timed.