RuckSack

RuckSack

Watching AUDUSD as it broke out of the daily range high on Tuesday but it failed to really establish itself. We've now had a wedge break topside but the daily high's do spike just above current price which invalidates the long break out trade. Add to that a shaky looking breakout which is already showing signs of struggling and I think avoiding a long here is...

RuckSack Updated 

Entered a second day play based on yesterday's TL break didn't give much of a sell opportunity which often leads to a false pop before selling step in around the price they initially wanted the previous day. We're starting to see the selling come in, most notably with the 8am candle showing rejections on volume. Stop is difficult to judge as daily support is...

RuckSack

Looking to play the vaccine news fade trade that has played out the last 2 pops on positive results catalyst. Post move we had a second bullish day but on low volume which indicates the run was mostly due to a lack of bearish pressure. That pressure was slowly building yesterday and we can see this in the general movement of the candles but a solid clue is the...

RuckSack

Watching to see how USDCAD plays this daily range low. We popped below it briefly a couple weeks ago and for a few days in January, but before that we have to look back to Oct 2018 before price has been below for an extended period of time. Will be looking for a daily close below on Volume before taking short entries. Long play would need to see a break of the...

RuckSack

Looking for a short term play back towards the DRH here on AUDUSD. Had a solid breakout of the 30min structure. Volume isn't high but perhaps that points to a lack of sellers? Waiting for consolidation Checkout my blog rucksack.medium.com

RuckSack

A mirror image entry of the USDCAD idea but this time the 30m volume doesn't line up with the lower high. We do however have real nice daily rejections from the inflection high. 2:1 is possible but the save would have to come form the entry as stop is just above vol high. Check out my blog rucksack.medium.com

RuckSack

Looking for a long on USDCAD after price stopped high of the DRL yesterday and started to trend up on bullish volume. Today we have an initial low followed by a retest and hold over several hours showing selling can't push price past 1.30800. Uptrend paused at yesterdays daily high so we'll look for a higher low to be set at the 30min Vol high with TMP around...

RuckSack Updated 

Watching GBPUSD as it interacts with the Daily Range High (DRH). We need to see failure and a close back inside the range for a short bias. TMP is back to 1.3000 inflection but that is a stretch goal as the 30 day average range is 130 pips and 1.3000 is ~230 pips away from inflection. Check out my blog @ rucksack.medium.com

RuckSack Updated 

Entered half position on AUDUSD as price comes back for the TL break swing. The play is to capitalise on the bearish momentum running out after such a big push up. 30 day average move is 70 pips with the move from 0.72720 low being 60 pips already. That does mean this may need to be a multi-day play to reach TMP, which is back at the daily range high (DRH)...

RuckSack

We've recently seen a break out of the daily range here on USDJPY so my bias is now short. Watching to see how price acts around this Resistance/Low Vol level to see if more downside is possible. Checkout my latest trade review post at: rucksack.medium.com

RuckSack

The Daily picture is pointing to a possible hold at the support level/TL so we're looking to position for a move higher. I'm not certain about the consol before this current TL break so we'll look to see if price holds around this level to create more of a traditional bottom for it to move up from.

RuckSack

Daily picture is looking like it might hold the Sup/Res flip, at which point we'd like to see a slightly break of this range and a move back inside, looking for price to hold on the 5min TF for a possible entry. TMP back into the 92500 zone with minimum 2:1 target. TBC with consoles and hold.

RuckSack

Looking at the EUR pairs here, with both reaching their respective 50% retracement levels from the Sept 21st drop. Both however have daily break out levels that have not been tested, with EURUSD being closer to it's level. With that in mind we're looking for the Sup/Res flip to play price up to this break out level. TMP is only 2:1 but I think given a clear...

RuckSack

After posting the USDJPY idea, this uses similar concepts but then takes the opposite trade...so do with that what you will. The idea here is that we have this daily break out level around 17800 where price was held in a range above. Thesis being that we may see a back test of this level giving us context for a move higher on the shorter TF. You can see the...

RuckSack

A few conflicting elements going on with USDJPY this morning. The Daily trend is down, since early March essentially however the Daily TL at the top here is from June 1st. Price moved away from this level in mid Sept and over the past week or so has traded back towards it. We then got stuck in the 105.500 range Thur/Fri last week ending with a pop out the top,...

RuckSack

So we're watching the TL for a break on a potential move higher. Interesting to note the big daily break out level which has not been back tested, so we may be able to use this to our advantage. Might need 20 Pip stop to cover the lows. TMP mid point res

RuckSack

Nothing specific top side just yet but interesting to note that on the last run up USDCAD had back in Jan/Feb there was only a real quick 100 pip pullback move before heading much higher. I'll be looking for weakness at the TL to go short back to this area which correlates with the Sup/Res zone too. Potential to then flip long for move upside.

RuckSack

Looking to see if 105.500 will hold as Res for a TL break and retest entry. Price has been very strong recently but we hare at the 50% retracement level on the Daily time frame which may mean we're topping for another move lower. 14 Pip stop to cover the highs here with a potential swing entry alongside the intra day trade to capitalise on the Daily movement.