Skipper86

Skipper86

Quarterly candle data going back to 1928 was exported and analyzed in Excel . The purpose of doing so was to identify candles comparable to the candle we had in Q2 of 2025 (last quarter) in terms of scale and form. Two properties of the candles were considered: 1. Candle Length as a % of Close (Column L) 2. Lower Wick as a % of Close minus Upper Wick as a % of...

Skipper86

Reason #1: Gold reached $3000/oz and it has a strong tendency to pullback after reaching $1000 multiples for the first time as can be seen on the chart, specifically when it first reached $1000 and $2000. $1900 which is a whole number in the ballpark of $2000 was also stiff resistance in 2011. Reason #2: Gold has been above the 52-week simple moving average for...

Skipper86

When the 441'0 historical resistance level is reached from below after having not been approached from below in at least a few months, it has served as resistance 5 out of the last 8 times. The theory here is that it will serve as resistance again and that corn will fall back into the "stable range" of 316' to 441'. There is a downtrend channel which also is...

Skipper86

Divergence between price and the RSI oscillator, and between price and the MACD oscillator indicate that the current situation going into 2025 is a toppy one. One might consider watching these oscillators and being on the lookout for a shorting opportunity or a bullish resolution of the divergence (less likely) through Q1.

Skipper86

There’s a 518 day time cycle from the 2 previous major lows to today. There’s also a falling broadening wedge breakout, DMI cross (not shown), and escalating regional conflict in the Middle East. Iran has launched ballistic missiles at Israel. There is a major downtrend but it’s far enough overhead that there’s headroom for upside. The trend seems vulnerable...

Skipper86

This is an idea of what to look out for if natgas continues to rally into overbought RSI territory and tops out as it did in May and June of 2024 (current year). Look out for overbought RSI divergence followed by a failure swing as shown and outlined in further detail in the idea linked below, probably confirmed by MACD divergence as well. Look out for an...

Skipper86

This trade idea is already a missed opportunity but the analysis of what transpired may be useful for future reference. This was a -8.38% move from a close that constituted a sell signal according to RSI failure swing theory on the daily chart. The drawdown would have been .46% if a short trade was entered at the close of Wed July 17th when the signal was given....

Skipper86

Gold has formed a rising channel like it did in spring of 2023 before stagnating and declining for over 6 months. Using the resulting price direction to the bottom and then the direction to the new ATH and applying those directions to the current high, a target of a new ATH in July of 2025 (next year) has been established. Another assumption is that gold must...

Skipper86

This trade has bad idea written all over it. Don’t try this at home. Not investment advice. etc. It has come to my attention that HO i.e.. NY Harbor heating oil which is a proxy petroleum distillate for diesel has gotten more expensive than gasoline in recent years many times and that it has done so in an aggressive manner quite a few of those times. This...

Skipper86

Bullish because red channel breakout with kickback. Bearish because green channel breakdown with purple channel head and shoulders. Good chance it goes up to ~81 to retest neckline before going down to 75 h&s price objective, possibly 70 major uptrend support, or just goes up period. Bullish bias to start the week, need more data beyond that.

Skipper86

This is an attempt to use Elliott Wave Theory to predict the future movement of the price of bitcoin. This analysis assumes the top is already in and that it has been established with a 12345 upward extension succeeded by a 12345 downward extension. The next move is an abc correction up to around $68K before a continuation of the assumed downtrend which will...

Skipper86

The bull flag price target for the Nasdaq 100 composite it 18000 by the end of February 2024. Using the extension that led into the bull flag as a guide, the end of the current extension is anticipated to reach the price target. Perhaps calls that expire in March with a strike price above 17000 make sense here.

Skipper86

Left chart: The daily RSI has a bearish divergence and failure swing (lower low) coming out of oversold territory which suggests a top for the month of October is probably in. A close below the 9-day (pink) moving average is also bearish. Right chart: The hourly chart shows price near the bottom of a price channel that is about 1 month in duration. A bounce...

Skipper86

On the monthly chart, using a 2-month stochastic, I’ve highlighted situations where a monthly candle closed near 2-month lows followed by a monthly candle closing near 2-month highs within the next 2 months. These rapid swings in price have led to a minimum of 23% gains over 3 months and a maximum gain of 47%, going by past performance. The implied price target...

Skipper86

There is a cup and handle breakout visible on the daily and weekly charts. This is not the proper application of a cup and handle pattern as outlined in the book "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William J. O'Neill because the pattern is meant to be applied to individual stocks rather than indexes, but the pattern exists none the less. It will be interesting to...

Skipper86

It broke above major daily SMA cluster It broke above all major weekly and monthly SMAs It bounced off major trend channel Bbands bandwidth at 5 year low

Skipper86

There’s a ripe inverse head and shoulders pattern on the Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF. It would appear the index is poised to reach the previous all-time high which is the first target. The 2nd target is the price objective of the H&S pattern. I believe the chart is fairly self explanatory so I won’t belabor this description. Please feel free to ask...

Skipper86

There is divergence between price and oscillators such as Bollinger Band %B, Accumulation/Distribution AD%, RSI, DMI, and MACD. Price has also retested a point of control level just shy of 1400’ after attempting a significant drop down to 1100’. The red circle highlights that the lower BB has curled up after an up move in price suggesting the up move in price is...