Skipper86

Skipper86

Before the Covid crash, there was a rising wedge with a fake drop and a retest. A similar pattern current exists. If this Omicron variant shakes up the markets, things may get ugly. I'm not going short unless intraday price action suggests doing so but I do have a bearish bias.

Skipper86

This is an after-the-fact observation, but the bearish divergence between price and net non-commercial longs is worth noting for future reference. COT = Commitments of Traders report

Skipper86

This is primarily for my own future reference but if anyone has questions I'll be glad to answer. Key points: 6 month spread (January to July) 6/15/9 MACD seems to work better than standard 12/26/9 Closing price delta trendline being broken seemed to be a bearish signal for the spread and oil price sustained increase in volume upon breaking through trendline...

Skipper86 Updated 

The neckline on the head and shoulders has been retested. The 160-hr harmonic cycle (previous idea) is still in play. The price target for the head and shoulders is a parallel line equidistant from the neckline to the top of the head. The timing is based on the harmonic cycle and will put the price at 3.624 by the end of next week. This is a theory. Note: The...

Skipper86 Updated 

Three squeezes are noted on the chart with the current one having a yet-to-be-determined resolution. If it plays out according to theory (source: John Bollinger book "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands"), the price action will begin a strong move either up or down. Based on the descending triangle-like nature of the current formation, and the bearish readings on the...

Skipper86

A harmonic cycle with a 160-hour period can be observed whereby the price rises significantly and then falls within each cycle. The cycle does not time tops or bottoms perfectly but it does suggest a window of time when there will be a top and when there will be a significantly lower point relative to that top. There is still the possibility of a 2nd top within...

Skipper86

Resistance includes: Upper edge of rising wedge 1.618 Fib extension 200-day Bollinger Band I'm not planning to go short but I might if an opportunity presents itself.

Skipper86 Updated 

50 day moving average (blue) crossed under 200 day moving average (red) = death cross Historically they haven't meant much for TSLA, but this one is after a historically unprecedented rally and EV competition is ramping up. I'm not shorting or selling but I will be on the lookout for a buying opportunity at a fraction of the current price within the next year or so.

Skipper86

3 out of the last 4 times price has reached the 13% envelope of the 200-hr simple moving average on the hourly there have been significant pullbacks ranging from -.5 to -1.618 retracements. 1 out of the 4 times the price reached the 21% envelope (purple). The absolute dollar amount relative to the 200-hr average is shown by the indicator at the bottom. It...

Skipper86

This chart demonstrates that the angle of the current uptrend is the same as the angle of a previous major rally. The uptrend lines are parallel. It also shows that price has broken out of a downtrend and above all relevant (in my opinion) horizontal resistance.

Skipper86 Updated 

The daily chart showing closing prices reveals a pattern of ascending lows and a resistance level of 5.900 which has developed over the past 8 days. The volatility, especially during after-hours trading, makes discerning a meaningful pattern out of the candles difficult, so an orange line tracing the closing prices was added for closing price analysis. The...

Skipper86 Updated 

The net positions of non-commercial traders generally move in the direction of the price action, as is shown by the red and green arrows. What happened recently is that the shorts were wrong about direction but then doubled down and went more net short expecting price to fall even more dramatically. It went up instead and those traders are stuck in the...

Skipper86 Updated 

This perpetual bull-run stock has rallied to a new ATH while the rest of the market was and may still be in turmoil. The MACD looks strong and stochastics suggest rally potential. This current impulse appears to be a 5th Elliott wave. Financials show a growth trajectory and a higher P/E has historically been supported by the market. The price action is...

Skipper86 Updated 

Log scale weekly chart showing Fib levels and rising wedge. Limited upside a likely possibility in near-term. Position: -1 /MESU1 @ 4506.00 (Shorted the micro S&P futures index, -$22,530)

Skipper86 Updated 

I just noticed this current bull rally looks very similar to the rally that took place before the Covid crash in terms of price action. The current trend slope is nearly identical to the slope just before the crash. Different color circles have been added to indicate the similarities.

Skipper86

Look at the new high in the put/call ratio and also, the pretty colors. Bearish on stonk indexes for now. The VIX appears to have lost downward momentum and the Fed looks like it cannot raise interest rates to fight inflation.

Skipper86 Updated 

but if they are, this would be like stealing some from one of them. The chart speaks for itself imo but key points: Ascending triangle breakout, upward channel, and Fib extension.

Skipper86 Updated 

Good time to start averaging up for a long-term (1+ years) position imo. Income is up nearly 7x since the beginning of 2018 but price is only up about 3x. The chart appears to be breaking out of and retesting a rectangle as well.