SmoothJB

SmoothJB May 23, 2022

The euro initially tried to rally on Friday but gave back gains to show signs of hesitation. The 1.06 level continues to be a massive barrier that traders cannot get beyond, and even if we did break above there, it is likely that we will find plenty of reasons to short this market. If we can break above the 1.06 level, then it is likely that we will go looking...

SmoothJB May 23, 2022

I wrote in my last piece on 16th May that despite the long-term bearish trend and the price still not far off that long-term low, we were seeing an important bullish sign – a first higher low at $1.2226. I thought the best approach would be to stand aside and wait for the price to get established below $1.2226 (bearish sign) or above $1.2277 (bullish sign). It...

SmoothJB May 15, 2022

The US dollar has fallen hard during the week to reach the ¥127.50 level. However, we have turned around to show signs of life again, and now we have ended up forming a bit of a hammer. That being said, the ¥130 level continues to be a bit of an issue, so I think we are more likely than not going to continue to see a lot of sideways trading, as we need to digest...

SmoothJB May 15, 2022

The Australian dollar broke through significant support during the week, and it looks to me as if we are more likely than not going to go lower. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to commodity markets, and therefore global growth. The 0.70 level above should offer resistance as it has been that massive support we have been paying attention...

SmoothJB May 15, 2022

The British pound has bounced hard at the end of the week, as it looks like we are trying to stay above the previous resistance. That being said, the market looks as if we are ready to go higher, but we need to get above the ¥160 level. If we break above the ¥160 level, then it is likely that we will go looking to the ¥165 level. On the other hand, if we turn...

SmoothJB May 15, 2022

The Swiss Franc fell strongly last week to reach very close to a new 3-year low against the US Dollar, and to reach and surpass parity with it. European currencies excepting the Euro are generally weak, but the Franc is showing standout weakness. The fall in the Swiss Franc has been unusually strong, being a firmer directional trend over the past few weeks than...

SmoothJB May 15, 2022

The Euro fell quite firmly last week to reach a new 5-year low against the US Dollar. The low of the week was only a few pips higher than the 19-year low. European currencies are generally weak, and the Euro is of course the major European currency. We see a bit of a lower wick in the weekly candlestick, and of course there is likely to be support kicking in if...

SmoothJB May 15, 2022

U.S. Dollar Index The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index rose again last week, in line with the long-term bullish trend, printing a bullish candlestick that closed within the top half of its range, but showed a significant upper wick. This was again the highest weekly close seen since March 2020. Dollar bulls will be encouraged that momentum...

SmoothJB May 8, 2022

The New Zealand dollar went back and forth last week but is a bit overextended to the downside. What is worth noting is that we ended up forming a bit of an inverted hammer, so it is likely that we will eventually find sellers on short-term rallies. Any sign of exhaustion on a short-term chart I will be shorting, and I do believe that it is likely that we will try...

SmoothJB May 8, 2022

The US dollar has rallied for the last month relentlessly against the Swiss franc. This will more likely than not continue to be the case, but we are getting a bit overstretched. I would anticipate a short-term pullback this coming week, with buyers coming back in to pick up the market. Longer term, it is very likely that we will go looking to reach the parity...

SmoothJB May 8, 2022

The British pound continues to sell off in general, but this particular pair is going to be a little bit different due to the fact that the Bank of Japan continues to fight higher interest rates in that country. As long as that is going to be the case, the British pound has at least a chance of staying bullish. However, the Bank of England has stated that they...

SmoothJB May 8, 2022

The euro went back and forth last week as the 1.05 level continues to offer support. That being said, the market looks as if it is going to continue to be very noisy, and will pay close attention to that 1.05 level. The 1.05 level is an area where we have seen a lot of support underneath, and therefore I think we are looking at a situation where the market...

SmoothJB May 8, 2022

The British Pound fell sharply last week to reach a new 18-month low against the US Dollar. European currencies excepting the Euro are generally weak, but the Pound is showing standout weakness after the Bank of England forecast British inflation would exceed 10% by the end of 2022. The fall in GBP/USD on Thursday was unusually strong and produced a small but...

SmoothJB May 8, 2022

The USD/JPY has risen like crazy over the past nine weeks, gaining each week. The past week saw the price rise again, but unable to make a new high. We are seeing bullish momentum continue to decrease, with no daily closes made above the key level at ¥130.80. The price is also reluctant to remain above the pivotal point at ¥130.50 for very long. As momentum has...

SmoothJB May 7, 2022

The US dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points. This was widely expected, so that was knocking to move the needle much. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions asked as to where we are going to go in the future, but I think at this...

SmoothJB May 7, 2022

The Euro has fallen hard during the trading session on Thursday to threaten the 1.05 level. The 1.05 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that has been important multiple times. Because of this, it is not overly surprising that we stall in this area. If we rally from here, it is likely that we will continue to see...

SmoothJB May 7, 2022

The British pound had a horrible session during the day on Thursday, as the 1.26 level has offered massive resistance. The turnaround after the Federal Reserve meeting is short-lived, to say the least, as we have broken down quite drastically. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to go lower based on the size of this candlestick, and of course,...

SmoothJB May 3, 2022

The GBP/USD had a difficult performance in April as the strength of the US dollar continued. The pair attempted to recover on Friday but it found a strong resistance at 1.2615. It has now pulled back and moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA). The Stochastic Oscillator moved from the overbought level. Therefore, the pair will...