Vixtine

Vixtine

The charts of Lululemon, Louis Vuitton, Restoration Hardware & Target are showing significant signs of weakness as all of them have broken important 3M closing support lows. Regardless of what you hear, these charts show that the high end consumer has been slowing consumption for quite some time and with the June 30, 2025 quarter close all of them have broken...

Vixtine

Robert Half has been around for quite sometime...I look at this chart as a sentiment indicator for "white collar workers". While white collar workers and the American middle class are not synonymous you could say that many people in the middle class are employed as white collar workers so it is a chart to study when considering how the American middle class is...

Vixtine

The monthly line chart is starting to look similar to the 2000-2008 timeframe; however instead of a prolonged Bear Flag; it looks like a prolonged Bull Flag in the making. Should that bull flag break to the upside; a doubling of the "pole" could put rates at or near the 8% range. (the dates rhyming could be just coincidental)

Vixtine

On February 5th we heard the following from US Treasury Secretary: “The president wants lower rates,” Bessent said in an interview with Larry Kudlow, “He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” Bessent has further stated: “He wants lower rates. He is not calling for the Fed to lower rates,” Bessent said. Trump believes that “if...

Vixtine

The strength of the move in credit spreads since the week of Jan 20th is really unusual. Even during Covid when spreads really widened in a short amount of time the "strength" of the move doesn't compare to what we are witnessing right now with this move. One comparable timeframe Is June 2007-July 2007. The move in the RSI in credit spreads is what STARTED the...

Vixtine

As I wrote on March 4th after February monthly closing...the RSI on credit spreads made a higher high with Feb closing which indicates a change from a down trend in credit spreads to an uptrend; which is not good for risk assets. Now that March has closed; you will see yet another spike in the RSI to close at another higher high. This spike in RSI is actually...

Vixtine

So many people I follow on X are very bearish the longer term bond cycle...claiming that the years of declining rates are over and that we are now in a new cycle of rising rates over the next 40-50 years. Even I have been a proponent of that language; writing up an idea on 3/31/2022 when rates were 2.326 and rising. But now it seems everyone is on that side of...

Vixtine Updated 

The RSI on credit spreads is changing course from being in a downtrend to starting an uptrend. With February's monthly closing we now have a higher high. Risk assets will not be the place to hide out; especially if you are leveraged long. Here is how the SPX has performed after changing course. The red vertical lines are the dates the RSI on credit spread...

Vixtine Updated 

It's known that credit spreads under 4 indicate a low risk on type market. (The black dotted line on the above chart indicates 4 so you can clearly see above/below) You can then use the RSI index to gauge whether or not the market might see a "change" in sentiment. A declining RSI means bull mode while a rising RSI means bear mode (could be just a market...

Vixtine

The crossing of the 100 SMA ABOVE the 200 SMA on the monthly 10 year yield is inevitable...it will cross shortly no matter what rates do from here on out...even if they declined to 2% tomorrow. What does this mean...IMO it means longer term lending rates will remain higher than people/corporations are used to seeing over the last 20 years. The prices we are...

Vixtine

I was looking over some monthly charts today (in candlestick format) and this one stood out to me on the monthly as a possible topping pattern...a monthly island reversal. On the 1st trading day in June 2024 SMH gapped up but then on the first trading day in August 2024 it gapped down creating a visual island reversal look. Technically speaking I think Island...

Vixtine Updated 

It's hard not to look at this monthly chart of Value (VTV) vs. Growth (VUG) and not see a possible LT double bottom in the works. There is no doubt growth stocks have been the winner for a very long time; certainly over the last 25-30 years and perhaps even more one might argue. At this point it seems like value is dead OR will it stage a huge comeback? Because...

Vixtine

I still have a hard time believing the US will ultimately see a soft landing from the most aggressive rate hiking event in history...the lag effect will prevail in due time. Ask yourself this...If the US economy is so great & resilient then why do the people in power need to deficit spend, especially given we are at maximum employment? Just makes zero sense...

Vixtine Updated 

Bullish narratives I've seen published online over the last couple of years: 1. Gold is a hedge against inflation 2. BRICS Currency-it will be backed by gold 3. China is hoarding gold 4. Central banks are gobbling up gold Given all these narratives, one would think gold has some pretty strong tailwinds yet it has had 3 breakout failures since these narratives...

Vixtine Updated 

I've been watching AMC for a couple of weeks thinking to myself...I bet the Taylor & Beyonce Concert films will bring some much needed love & cash to this dying theater chain. So a "bet" with myself is what I am taking on this morning based upon the following analysis: Positives: Yesterdays price cut right through the daily Tenkan Sen (thick red line) and closed...

Vixtine Updated 

I've seen some trader's theorize the last couple of years that we will have another "roaring 20's" style stock market during the 2020's-2030's. If you compare the early 1900's chart, using a 6 month timeframe, to today's chart you would actually theorize that we are at the end of the "roaring" era. Since bottoming in 2009 we have "roared" up almost...

Vixtine Updated 

Above is the yearly chart for SPX from inception in 1957...the last 3 yearly candles (2021, 2022 & 2023) look nothing like its past history. The red dotted lines are closing HIGHS followed by weakness year/s. Typically year 3, after a weakness year, either breaks out OR we are still in bear mode. So we are in unchartered territory right now...neither the bulls...

Vixtine Updated 

Since 1974 Disney has always made a "yearly" higher low as depicted by the red hash marks on this chart. In 2022 it closed the year below the previous yearly "pullback low"...yikes!!! Could Disney be an early warning sign of what is to come over the next 10 years for the US stock market? It is a 1900's quintessential "American" company. Anyone looking to add...