Chart speaks for itself.
- PA action looks over done
- Price corrected 50 pips back to the 1.5085 - 1.51 zone.
- In regards to CPI numbers today - "Inflation fell by just -0.1% during December when markets had looked for a second consecutive -0.4% decline as the last of the final quarter's 30% decline in oil prices worked its way through into the cost of...
Spread between the 5 years between the US and CA is widening,
- oil might be topping for the time being, gasoline inventories are building and draw isn't as high as expected. winter refinery season.
- CAD move is over done.
Target 1.343 area.
Lots of Fed speakers coming out and saying they are data dependent and monetary policy is not a preset course. It could take a few good economic data point for the US dollar to rebound. In the past it rebounded off it's 200 EMA.
Long the US dollar for a rebound
Buy @ .6710, chart speaks for itself.
Buy for risk on mode and more US dollar liquidity,
Nordea market calling for higher NZD.
Two lot trade -
buy 1 @ .6715
buy 2 @ .6673
TP .6845
stop loss below .6615
USDCAD long on retrace.
Oil topping at 49.5, long wicks formations in 4H, it's looking for a mild correction. Besides opec news and baker hughes rig drawndown, inventory levels for oil and gasoline doesn't show a strong rally for oil, plus it's demand for oil in winter is less.
US-CA 10Y widening again to -74.5
BOC tomorrow, could be dovish given all the...
CAD is in a strong position to out perform, BOC is one of the few CB to raise rate this year, and if OIL outperforms then this pair could potentially visit low 1.475.
Using FIB levels to enter long or short trades.
China US looks like it's on positive foot. This pair at bounced off october low, could potentially go lower to 1.58 should it break and close 1.6, once broken look to short. On the other side, plenty of AUD data coming, AUD economy not doing too well, so it could potentially move higher and once the data noise is done, it could start moving lower on positive China...
Global growth slowing, markets are heading into bear market, EURO/US/UK all have their political sovereign problems, no place to hide.
Is it time to go long the JPY? JGB bonds yielding low returns provides stable returns in the current world of volatility.
Potential US government shutdown next week, Trump, Chuck and Nancy arguing like children in the press conference today, there is a strong probability that US government is going to shut down on Dec 21st.
Plus price hit .68 Fib retrace level, stop loss at 133.6 and strong wicks in the 2hr, profit around 112.6, not expecting much from this pair.
As the title speaks for itself. Of course DXY is heavily weighted by the EUR, the movement in the index depends on the direction of EUR.
non the less, truth to the matter is, the longer it stalls, the harder it falls (or go higher).
Price hit .92628 which happens to be -
1) .68% FIB level from 2018 high to low,
2) Resistance level
3) Trendline.
2 scenarios can play out, the price moves higher than .92628, break of channel, 300+ pips OR drop back into the channel 300+ pips
The Trigger is on Dec 19th, Q4 NZD GDP numbers come out, prev NZD GDP was a huge surprise - Previous - 2.6%, Actual...
Bias is down, street forecasters calling for a lower USDJPY for next year based on lower rate hike expectation, slower US growth due to decrease tax effects. US net positioning is highest in two years in CFTC, downside could accelerate
should the sentiment change. Japan is also the net creditor of the world and should the returns else where (emerging markets,...
Mid term
- Retrace gaining ground, today will have retraced all of the bull move.
- EURAUD trades as risk asset, SPX recovered today and on its way to form a hammer on daily candle (hence rebound in EURAUD), IF SPX rallies, pair could fall further.
- As the PA in retrace slows, look to go long in one of the FIB retrace levels.
Long term favors BUY-
- Nordea...
