bruceyam

bruceyam

Two distinct patterns have emerged in the gold market. First, a cup and handle pattern has been evolving since 2009, extending up to the present. Upon closer inspection of the handle portion, it becomes evident that it's shaping a broadening formation, specifically a right-angled and descending one. These combined patterns indicate significant upside potential for...

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Last week, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain interest rates at their current levels. However, Japan's Financial Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, made it clear that he is open to exploring various options within the currency market. Notably, both US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have hinted at the possibility of...

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During a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the central bank is expecting to raise interest rates multiple times in the coming months. Powell also stated that the Fed would be ready to speed up its monetary policy tightening if necessary. This announcement is consistent with previous hints from other Fed...

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There are three lines in the chart, one is S&P500, one is the US 10-year treasury yield, and one is the 3-month treasury yield. In the past, the SPX usually lead the 3-month yield is falling. This means Fed will cut interest rates aggressively when the market turns into a downtrend. However, it's different this time. The S&P500 had a low in Oct 2022, and the Fed...

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Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mestermost of whom, as of December, had penciled in a 5.00%-5.25% policy rate in coming months. Mester said that, for her part, she expects the Fed's policy rate to need to go "a bit higher" than that and stay there for some time to slow inflation further. St. Louis Fed president Bullard doesn’t want to ‘stall’ on getting interest...

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Yesterday Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell’s speech on Central Bank Independence and the Mandate—Evolving Views" give no clue on the interest rate forecast or his view on the upcoming rate decision. At this moment, market expect a 75.3% chance hike 25 bps in 1 Feb 2023 and 24.7% chance to hike 50 bps. However, in Dec Chairman Powell expressed that despite the...

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EURUSD has finished rebound. If 2012's Italy debt is a problem and concern for us, Italy's debt to GDP ratio is around 126.5%. At this moment the debt to GDP ratio is already 150.8% in 2021. Stochastic is showing divergence. Today, EURUSD has a big downside signal EUR is going to test lower again. In May 2011, the 10 year yield of Italian bond is 4.88%, in 2021,...

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the MACD and Stochastic of showing lack of upside momentum and gold is likely to retreat before a significant rally, as Fed Chairman Powell have signal that rate destiny will be higher than the market expectation, means Fed is likely to continue rate high until something happens. When the Pivot comes, gold will head a long higher, but the technically analysis do...

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Hang Seng Index rebound should have finished around 19500. Stochastic is overbought and the rebound is still below 60 week moving average which means the downtrend have not been changed. Property market, and the lack of factory order in China, should still hit Hong Kong economy Next year, most of the Economy will fall into recession, even Taiwan Central Bank is...

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After the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week, the market take the message that Fed is going to slow down the rate hike, the rally is so hard, but the market is wrong pricing the Fed intend. in the speech Powell said, "We are tightening the stance of policy in order to slow growth in aggregate demand. Slowing demand growth should allow supply to catch...

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In the pass, I have been bearish for HSI for sometimes, at this moment, HSI might have some rebound before break below the supportive line aim at rebound targeting 18500-19500

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The U.S. currency turned sharply lower on Friday and stocks recovered, largely as Wall Street Journal chief economics reporter Nick Timiraos wrote that the Fed officials are scrambling for another 75 basis point rate hike at their November meeting, where they may discuss whether and how to signal a small rate hike in December. Watch how their moves this year are...

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USD have been very strong this year. Nearly all currencies fall again USD CHF have been strong since 2000, it's not time for upside break out in 2012, because of the euro crisis, chf have been strong against EUR and so the SNB peg CHF with EUR at 1.2 in 2014, some how SNB is not able to peg CHF to EUR any more, so the peg is unlinked so there is no chance that CHF...

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This week ECB kept the rate unchanged, but President Lagarde said the bank is ‘much closer to target’ on inflation and refused to rule out tightening of monetary policy in 2022. She suggests the bond-buying could end in the third quarter. Consumer prices in the euro area jumped an annual 5.1% in January, surpassing economist estimates by the most in at least two...

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The above chart is a monthly log of the SPX. Since 1932, there has been a trendline supporting the whole bull market. However, after the 2008 subprime crisis, the Fed introduced QE again. Why do we use QE again? In 1923, Benjamin Strong, head of the New York Fed, realized that gold was no longer the primary factor controlling credit in the economy. By making a...

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in the past few years, USDCNH usually found a turning point in the 1st Q, especially around the Chinese New Year. Today there is a big rally in USDCNH. Reuters report, FX conversion before the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which starts on Jan. 31, has been traditionally heavier as exporters need to settle their dollar receipts for goods payments and employee...

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Last week silver posted a remarkable high volume on 18 Jan. according to CME recorded a 108,632 contract on that day, equal to 543M ounces of silver, which is equivalent to 1/2 year of mine production in the world. With a large volume that day, silver is tough to go below 22. Silver is looking for challenge 50 in the coming months on the monthly chart. If silver...

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Tory MP David Davis urges Boris Johnson to resign www.youtube.com and Boris Johnson has repeatedly said the salary for PM is too low metro.co.uk A vote of confidence within the Conservative Party must be initiated by a written motion of at least 15% of Conservative MPs in the House of Commons. Based on the current number of Conservative MPs in the House of...