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EURUSD tests 1.1438–1.1440 resistance despite optimism about the US–China deal. As long as this level holds, the horizontal move between this resistance and 1.1375 may continue. Keep an eye on news coming out of London.

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Today’s non-farm payroll (NFP) expectation is 126k, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%. Throughout the month, employment data has been weak. Both initial jobless claims and continuing claims have increased, and the ADP report also came in low. The only partial strength was seen in last month’s JOLTS job openings data, but even that can...

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The S&P 500 is showing signs of contraction just below the key 6000 level. The ADP employment report, which revealed the slowest pace of hiring since March 2023, has raised some concern among investors. Whether this weak labor data will significantly impact the broader stock market remains to be seen. Tariff effects appear to be gradually surfacing, first in...

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In our earlier post titled “Bears Won the Battle for Gold”, the bearish momentum appeared dominant. However, that victory proved short-lived. A inverse head and shoulders pattern has now formed, and both this pattern and the downward trendline from the 3500 top have been broken. Despite this, the previous high at 3366 continues to hold, leaving the breakout...

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Ethereum is attempting to break out of an ascending triangle, supported by the recent U.S. tariff court ruling that came just hours ago. The 2740–2756 zone remains key, and despite a brief spike above, resistance is still holding. If a breakout is confirmed, the next major target lies at 3075. To reach that level, a new trend channel may form, potentially running...

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EURUSD is sitting on the 200-hour simple moving average after failing to break the 1.1425 resistance. The implementation and then postponement of the proposed 50% tariffs on Europe added to short-term volatility. Formal trade talks between the EU and US are expected to begin soon. A green trend channel has now formed, with previously tested key support and...

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Silver has been contracting over the last couple of days. While the gold/silver ratio remains at historically high levels, ongoing risks in global trade and manufacturing provide strong justification for this imbalance. In the short term, unless XAGUSD breaks above the 33.45 resistance, the direction may remain to the downside. The 200-hour moving average—often...

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Gold had been stuck between the orange downward trendline and the shorter-term upward trend channel (white), with a decisive move imminent as discussed in earlier posts. That decision now appears to favor the bears, as the upward trend channel has broken. Following the break, gold quickly dropped to the 3,270–3,290 support zone, which is currently being tested....

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Stock markets around the globe are turning their focus to one key earnings report: Nvidia. AI has been the primary driver of the U.S. stock market over the past few years, and Nvidia’s earnings are widely viewed as the best indicator of growth in the AI sector. The correlation between Nvidia and broader U.S. stock performance as well as its influence on global...

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NZDUSD has been forming a descending triangle pattern since 2020. After the wide swings triggered by the COVID-19 shock, price action has gradually contracted. The downside has been limited near 0.55, while the topside has followed a clear descending trendline, currently sitting around 0.62. Following a brief surge in April, NZDUSD has entered a short-term flat...

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Eurozone PMIs disappointed, and EURUSD is feeling the negative pressure as a result. After breaking above 1.1275, EURUSD is now trading within the 1.1275–1.1375 range. Despite the weak PMI, shaky U.S. bond markets and a stronger Japanese yen are contributing to a weaker dollar, which is offering some support to EURUSD. The Eurozone composite PMI fell to 49.5 from...

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After breaking above the 3,270–3,290 zone, gold has confirmed the short-term uptrend (white trend). Now, this short-term trend channel is intersecting with the downward trendline drawn from the 3,500 high. Gold is nearing a key inflection point that will likely determine its medium-term direction: will the pattern of lower highs continue, or is another leg higher,...

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USDCAD has dropped below the 1.40 level after previously testing the 1.47 resistance during peak tariff fears. With the dollar index weakening and trade-related concerns easing, USDCAD has pulled back to a key trendline on the daily timeframe. Since 2015, USDCAD has traded within a broad range between 1.20 and 1.47. After testing the 1.20 support in mid-2021, the...

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USDJPY was rejected at the 38.2% retracement level. Rising yields may continue to exert downward pressure until the 140 support level is tested. The true direction for USDJPY will likely become clearer after that test. Similar to USDJPY, EURJPY has also formed a bearish technical outlook. You can check our earlier post on EURJPY here: Unless EURUSD rises...

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Gold has formed a triangle pattern on the 15-minute timeframe. Given the recent flow of mostly gold-positive news, there is a chance that gold may attempt a breakout from this formation today. From a demand perspective, the aggressive gold hoarding phase appears to be over, and "managed money" is gradually taking profits without triggering significant downward...

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AUDUSD is trading in a very support/resistance-heavy area ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision. The RBA is widely expected to cut rates by 0.25%. The central bank is likely to factor in the government's extended electricity subsidies, and combined with weak GDP data, a rate cut appears almost certain. Since 2000, Australia's average quarterly GDP growth has been...

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EURUSD appears to be setting up for round two. The white trendline, which represents the long-term trend from 2008, was tested at the beginning of this week. The expected bounce followed, pushing EURUSD back toward the yellow trendline. Now, the pair is once again approaching to white trend. A clear break below the trendline could easily push EURUSD lower in the...

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Nvidia has surged more than 55% since the early April dip and over 40% from the second dip, as expected in our earlier post. This massive rally was supported by a softening in trade policy (Bloomberg trade uncertainty index fell to 7.67 from 16.27), Nvidia's valuation being well below historical averages, and momentum sparked by Trump’s Middle East business...