geometricThinking

geometricThinking Jul 27, 2013

It looks like it to me.

geometricThinking Jul 26, 2013

The last time i published a gann square, the picture was grossly distorted. Lets see if it works better this time. TV's native Gann square and fan drawing tools are ill-equipped to do this correctly, but one CAN fashion a decent square and save the template. My guess is that price will break down when it reaches the next arc - we will seem soon enough. We are...

geometricThinking Jul 25, 2013

This is likely the end of wave 2 up, for EW traders. Note that the resistance directly overhead, the blue line, is a Gann 1*3 line from a larger cycle. I think this is likely to be a turning point, within the next few hours

geometricThinking Jul 20, 2013

food for thought. Since the 5 waves down ended at 86, I count not 1, but 2 distinct 5 waves UP. That could still be an abc correction, with the next wave down due at any time. OR.. The tide turned at 86. Note that the price crossed Gann resistance. That resistance became support 5 bars later. Just saying....

geometricThinking Jul 19, 2013

Buckle up...

geometricThinking Jul 15, 2013

BTC has still not posted a daily close over 100.44 after 4 days of trying. So, my preferred wave count has still not been ruled out. (If we close over 100.44 waves 1 and 4 overlap.) We are VERY close to that, but after 4 days have been unable to cross that boundary. Meanwhile we are just a few candles (4hr) from a likely turn point, with both the 55th and...

geometricThinking Jul 15, 2013

There is a distinct possibility that my preferred count, that wave 4 just ended, is mistaken. Indeed, there is a possibility that wave 1 of the bull market has already completed, and I mistook it for wave 4. If so, the current pullback is wave 2, now tracing is wave C... Be careful EW traders....

geometricThinking Jul 15, 2013

There is a distinct possibility that my preferred count, that wave 4 just ended, is mistaken. Indeed, there is a possibility that wave 1 of the bull market has already completed, and I mistook it for wave 4. If so, the current pullback is wave 2, now tracing is wave C... Be careful EW traders....

geometricThinking Jul 12, 2013

IMO wave 4 of a 5 wave structure down has just ended at 95. However, there are now 3 clear waves up from the 65 low. Weekly resistance was hit at 95. From here I anticipate 5 waves down to ensue. It might end in the 40-50 area. In any case, this final 5 wave structure should end the 2013 bitcoin bear market. If, after a pullback from the current level...

geometricThinking Jul 2, 2013

As some on the vitcoin talk forum know, I had forecast for an 86 low in btc recently. When it was hit, I thought that the bear market was over wave 5 had ended. I bought the low with joy. But shortly thereafter I saw that the market action over the next few hours were 3s, not 5. Which meant the down move was not yet finished. I sold btc again with but a very...

geometricThinking Jun 27, 2013

I believe it will head down, but as for how far, and for how long, I wish I knew....

geometricThinking Jun 21, 2013

Be careful...

geometricThinking Jun 20, 2013

I have come to the conclusion that my earlier prognostications that the bear market ended ~88 last week were premature. I now believe that selloff was a wave 3, and the action since then has been a wave 4. This suggests that the final wave 5 of the bear market is due. If it follows the expected path, it might take us all the back to ~ 48. I've been wrong...

geometricThinking Jun 17, 2013

While technically my preferred count has not been ruled out yet, I am increasingly feeling that this is not feeling like the market I would expect if wave 3 up had already begun. So, I am considering the possibility that my alt count may actually be the one in force. In this case, the move down that ended at 88 was a wave 3, and we are now either already in...

geometricThinking Jun 15, 2013

I believe that the 5 minute bars just painted a 5 wave up. If so, wave 3 may have just begun. This might get exciting...

geometricThinking Jun 15, 2013

My current thoughts on the btc wave count.

geometricThinking Jun 12, 2013

I believe that a quick move to ~ 133 has just begun. Wave 2 of 3 seems to have just completed.

geometricThinking Jun 11, 2013

I have materially changed my preferred wave count, as I realized that my previous count violated a rule - wave 4 was overlapping wave 1. The new preferred count fixes that mistake. It also means that the big push up at wave (4) is a wave 5, not a 3 as I previously thought. This is huge because it means the current meandering is not a wave 4, but a correction...