ramon_markiewitz

ramon_markiewitz

I would expect BTC to form a short term top somewhere in this area to then form a cycle low around june 6th. I am watching for reaccumulation at this demand zone, but its way to early to tell how this cycle low will play out. (If there is no top in this area i am still expecting a retracement around this date, the price level does not matter)

ramon_markiewitz Updated 

I just took a short after seeing that BTC could have completed a higher time distribution model, right into supply i am watching since january(Idea below this post). I was sleeping at the time the BOS came so my entry is bad, but it should still work out. A better area to enter could be from supply at 107.200$ with a BOS. At this point it would just make way more...

ramon_markiewitz Updated 

After BTC distributed over the weekend and turned immediately from distribution into reaccumulation there now could form a second accumulation model 1 or 2. I am looking for good confirmations below this current low for a possible long to the range high of the model. The technical price target for the reaccumulation model is the range high, but there also is...

ramon_markiewitz

This is my outlook for the next week, going into the daily cycle low. A model 1 in this range which could confirm a PO3 would be perfect. After the weekend it should be clear what will happen next, so im patient.

ramon_markiewitz

Last night got a distribution model 1 on ETH confirmed with a BOS on the 15 min. Technical target is the range low, but since we are above a 15 day range this could evolve into a PO3 which would bring ETH to new lows. I would love to see BTC's distibution model and USDT's accumulation model to confirm for more validation. Invalidation for ETH is above the recent high.

ramon_markiewitz

The distribution model i posted a few days ago could now be completed. BTC formed a model 1 to potentially complete a bigger model 1 and eventhough this looks more like a PO3 now, the price target is the same. My invalidation would be a push above the highs.

ramon_markiewitz

After the weekly cycle low i was looking for in march never got confirmed this is in my opinion the most likely scenario for BTC. This would be an really long weekly cycle but i have seen longer cycles in the past. Funnily enough, the period when the model could be completed coincides with the cycle low which is approximately May 10th (+/- 6 Days). I can' tell if...

ramon_markiewitz

On sunday i posted an idea where BTC would reject from supply. Now we tapped into it and started to form some kind of an distribution model. I have drawn some ways this could get completed if it isn't already, but since we are in a higher timeframe accumulation model 2 there is also a chance that this is just consolidation before continuation and this gets invalidated.

ramon_markiewitz

There is a chance for a good short opportunity. Yesterday BTC turned around just before coming into the last supply zone of its current range and even though there is a confirmed model 2 which should get us at least to the top of the range, there could be a last rejection to collect more liquidity.

ramon_markiewitz

This range could turn into an model 1 or 2, but it's to early to tell. I will keep an eye on it.

ramon_markiewitz

There could be a chance for another accumulation pattern in BTC after Friday's. I'm observing a BOS, either in the demand or below it.

ramon_markiewitz

This is the scenario I'm watching for in the current half cycle. If something similar to what I've drew plays out, it would confirm a high time frame accumulation model 2 that I've been waiting for for weeks now.

ramon_markiewitz

The model 2 on SUI i posted on Tuesday turned into an possible model 1. A breakdown from this area would confirm it, but i would look at what BTC is doing and the upcoming weekend range.

ramon_markiewitz

This could end up as an model 1 if BTC can get one more deviation of the low and close the daily candle above the red line. It's also possible that the low is in already. In that case i would look for an model 2, but to tell that the range has to develop more. There is a cance that BTC is already distributing to make a new low, so i would look out for what...

ramon_markiewitz

The low reached yesterday could be the weekly/daily cycle low, but there is no confirmation at this time. If this isn't the bottom, it should happen sometime next week. Should BTC get a swing out of here and undercut the low again, the next weekly cycle would be considered as failed, meaning further downside is likely. If not, I think that path on the chart could...

ramon_markiewitz

After creating extreme liquidity above today's low, this demand zone could be a good entry for later. This model 2 would only be correct if the range high does not get taken out before we got a third tap. If this plays out as planned i look for a BOS down there. Coming down one more time for a model 1 inside the deviation limit would also be fine.

ramon_markiewitz

What if we saw a massive manipulation event next week? This would make sense since we are right in the window of a weekly cycle low. If it comes, it should come next week, so the weekly candle that closes today will not be affected by it. Previously, we could manipulate the current range by taking out the extreme points, then dumping the price, creating a PO3,...

ramon_markiewitz

Since we are putting in all these higher lows, this could be a good entry for a longterm trade. With the CME close below us, it would be really bullish if we can create a CME gap today. The next 4h candle should give more clarity, but below us is also good looking demand, maybe we go down there.