sunriselmi

sunriselmi

price is still under a break down trend line, just tested with cpi bounce. i believe it will continue to test that line or break above it to challenge the top of the channel. any good news will be a massive squeeze. there is a gap to fill at 20200ish, possible friday target for a relief rally.

sunriselmi Updated 

price has reacted at the bottom of this very steep channel every time. i expect a reaction around 19300.

sunriselmi

in the past es has respected these break out backtest lines. i expect a reaction and repeated holds at this line.

sunriselmi

two fib extensions very close to todays top. the larger the time frame probably the more important the levels. see dotted lines for fib extensions.

sunriselmi

see nov 2021 and jan 2022 peaks. this line is likely to be tested again.

sunriselmi

i look for break out and break down lines. these are identified by pivot points below a line that support and ultimately a large break out, or pivot points above a line that support followed by ultimate large failures when the line breaks. these lines become resistance and support. note todays plunge on nfp and where it found support. the light blue lines are...

sunriselmi

stochastic near a bottom, rsi heading back to the 50 level. chart is for deus.

sunriselmi

basic support and resistance areas so far. holiday lite may kick in after 1130 eastern

sunriselmi

a wedge really is just a trend line break down, but the upper line can help determine the loss of momentum, plus a potential short entry once the pattern is mature.

sunriselmi

this level seems most likely, perhaps around the hourly 200. that would allow the wedge to play out for the full distance, which is usually the base of the wedge.

sunriselmi

prepared for nathan to explain what i was saying. back to support for now but you were saying you were still bullish and i said i was not two days ago. this is why.

sunriselmi

just like the spx/es chart just posted, nq has the same breakdown backtest line. i think its likely price tests this line. it would be extremely unusual for price to recover above the line. in this market, anything is possible.

sunriselmi

this could be where price is headed. this line since covid is very steep compared to past trend lines going back 25 years. it seems amazing that it could maintain or increase the steepness, and it seems more amazing that a break down and backtest would get back above the line, esp with this much price confirmation that the line exists. i dont believe the line...

sunriselmi

this is a good level for a bottom imo. just based on the trend line, backtest of a break out.

sunriselmi Updated 

i believe es must tag this line in the near future.

sunriselmi

using a simple gann fan thinking price is backtesting a breakdown line.

sunriselmi Updated 

price is backtesting the line, nothing more. this is the same line as published in the 2021 break above a decade long upper trend line. this usually signals a melt up of mammoth proportions. the conditions supporting a melt up have not changed, 105 billion or more of qe per month.

sunriselmi

except for the recent overthrow above the line, index prices have really only returned to the longer term trend line. yes, a bear market correction may be due since this is the longest bull in history, but in the day of managed markets, this could continue until it doesnt.